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Gold and Silver Rebound as Ceasefire Optimism Pressures US Dollar | 4th June, 2026

Metals Gain Ground

Global financial markets are shifting toward a more constructive tone as the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire eases geopolitical concerns and reduces demand for traditional safe-haven assets. The softer US Dollar is helping Gold and Silver recover from recent lows, while oil prices retreat as supply disruption fears fade. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar benefits from stronger domestic trade data, while the Canadian Dollar remains pressured by widening policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.

Gold Forecast

Current Price and Context

Gold is rebounding from a one-week low as easing geopolitical tensions reduce safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, allowing buyers to re-enter the market.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Lebanon ceasefire reduces demand for defensive USD positions

• US Economic Data: Mixed data limits aggressive Dollar gains

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations continue capping stronger Gold rallies

• Trade Policy: Improved risk sentiment supports commodity demand

• Monetary Policy: Higher-for-longer Fed outlook remains a headwind

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral to bullish

• Resistance: $4,720

• Support: $4,640

• Forecast: Gold may extend its recovery if USD weakness persists

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Mildly bullish Gold

• Catalysts: Fed commentary and geopolitical developments

Silver Forecast

Current Price and Context

Silver is bouncing from recent lows as improving risk sentiment supports precious metals, though concerns surrounding prolonged US blockade risks continue limiting upside momentum.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced Middle East tensions support recovery sentiment

• US Economic Data: Softer USD provides support for Silver prices

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations continue weighing on metals

• Trade Policy: Industrial demand outlook remains supportive

• Monetary Policy: Elevated yields continue limiting aggressive buying

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral

• Resistance: $77.00

• Support: $75.20

• Forecast: Silver may consolidate while traders assess broader risk sentiment

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral to bullish Silver

• Catalysts: USD direction and global growth expectations

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude oil prices are slipping below the $93.00 level after the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire reduced fears of broader regional supply disruptions.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Ceasefire agreement lowers energy supply concerns

• US Economic Data: Stable demand outlook limits deeper declines

• FOMC Outcome: Monetary policy remains secondary to geopolitical developments

• Trade Policy: Reduced risk premium weighs on oil prices

• Monetary Policy: Global growth expectations continue influencing demand forecasts

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish to neutral

• Resistance: $94.00

• Support: $91.50

• Forecast: Oil may remain under pressure if geopolitical tensions continue easing

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish oil

• Catalysts: Middle East developments and demand forecasts

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Canadian Dollar remains under pressure despite relatively firm oil prices as widening Fed-BoC policy divergence continues favoring the US Dollar.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced market stress lowers CAD safe-haven demand

• US Economic Data: Stronger US fundamentals support USD strength

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed outlook widens policy divergence

• Trade Policy: Oil support is being offset by monetary policy expectations

• Monetary Policy: Fed-BoC gap remains the dominant driver

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish USD/CAD

• Resistance: 1.3920

• Support: 1.3820

• Forecast: USD/CAD may remain elevated while policy divergence persists

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish CAD

• Catalysts: Canadian economic data and central bank guidance

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Australian Dollar is edging higher after Australia’s trade balance unexpectedly returned to surplus, improving sentiment toward the currency.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Improving risk appetite supports AUD demand

• US Economic Data: Softer Dollar sentiment supports upside momentum

• FOMC Outcome: Fed expectations remain a limiting factor

• Trade Policy: Stronger trade data boosts confidence in Australia’s outlook

• Monetary Policy: RBA expectations remain supportive for AUD

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: 0.7230

• Support: 0.7160

• Forecast: AUD/USD may extend gains if economic momentum remains positive

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish AUD

• Catalysts: Australian data releases and risk sentiment

Wrap-Up

Global markets are showing signs of improved risk appetite as the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire reduces geopolitical uncertainty and weakens safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. This has helped Gold and Silver recover while pressuring oil prices lower. However, persistent Federal Reserve hawkishness and central bank policy divergence remain important drivers across currency and commodity markets, leaving investors focused on upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments for the next major directional catalyst.

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Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.