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Major Currencies Gain as Softer US Dollar Supports FX Markets| 23rd July, 2026

FX Markets Rally

Major currency pairs traded with a positive bias as broad-based US Dollar weakness continued to support foreign exchange markets despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Investors remained focused on key central bank developments, particularly the European Central Bank’s policy decision, while resilient economic data from Australia and cautious market positioning contributed to gains across several major currencies. The US Dollar Index remained under pressure, providing additional support for the Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, and Australian Dollar.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Euro advanced as traders positioned ahead of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision. Market participants remained cautious, anticipating guidance on future interest rate expectations and the ECB’s assessment of inflation and economic growth.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing Middle East tensions maintained a cautious market environment but had a limited impact on Euro demand.

• US Economic Data: Softer US Dollar sentiment continued supporting EUR/USD.

• FOMC Outcome: Expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a cautious policy stance reduced support for the Dollar.

• Trade Policy: Stable trade conditions allowed monetary policy expectations to remain the primary market driver.

• Monetary Policy: Investors focused on the ECB’s policy decision and forward guidance for clues on the Euro’s next direction.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: 1.1820

• Support: 1.1740

• Forecast: EUR/USD could extend gains if the ECB delivers supportive guidance or maintains a balanced outlook on inflation.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Moderately bullish ahead of the ECB announcement.

• Catalysts: ECB interest rate decision, President Lagarde’s remarks, and US economic releases.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The British Pound traded above the 1.3350 level despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Sterling remained supported by broad US Dollar weakness, although investors continued monitoring global risk sentiment.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Escalating tensions encouraged cautious trading but did not significantly weaken Sterling.

• US Economic Data: A softer Dollar provided support for GBP/USD.

• FOMC Outcome: Expectations for a measured Fed policy outlook weighed on the Dollar.

• Trade Policy: No major trade developments influenced the pair.

• Monetary Policy: Bank of England policy expectations remained relatively stable.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: 1.3400

• Support: 1.3310

• Forecast: Continued Dollar weakness may allow GBP/USD to challenge higher resistance levels.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish.

• Catalysts: UK economic releases, US macroeconomic data, and geopolitical developments.

USD/CHF Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Swiss Franc recovered against the US Dollar after three consecutive sessions of losses. Although the rebound reflected improving demand for the Franc, the overall outlook remained fragile as investors balanced safe-haven flows with expectations surrounding US monetary policy.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven demand supported the Swiss Franc amid regional uncertainty.

• US Economic Data: Persistent Dollar weakness allowed CHF to recover.

• FOMC Outcome: Fed policy expectations continued influencing the pair’s direction.

• Trade Policy: Trade developments remained a secondary market factor.

• Monetary Policy: Interest rate expectations between the Swiss National Bank and the Federal Reserve continued shaping price action.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral

• Resistance: 0.8120

• Support: 0.8050

• Forecast: USD/CHF may remain range-bound unless stronger safe-haven demand or monetary policy surprises emerge.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral with a cautious bias.

• Catalysts: Geopolitical developments, Fed commentary, and US economic indicators.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Australian Dollar strengthened above the 0.7000 psychological level following resilient domestic labor market data. Strong employment figures reinforced confidence in Australia’s economic outlook and supported demand for the Aussie despite global uncertainty.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: External tensions increased volatility but had limited impact on the Australian Dollar.

• US Economic Data: Continued Dollar weakness provided additional support.

• FOMC Outcome: Fed expectations remained an important external influence.

• Trade Policy: Stable regional trade activity supported broader market confidence.

• Monetary Policy: Strong labor data reinforced expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: 0.7045

• Support: 0.6985

• Forecast: Sustained momentum above 0.7000 could encourage further upside toward the next resistance level.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish as domestic fundamentals strengthen.

• Catalysts: Australian economic releases, Chinese data, and US macroeconomic developments.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index remained under pressure near the 101.00 level despite heightened geopolitical tensions that would typically support safe-haven demand. Market participants instead focused on evolving monetary policy expectations and positioning ahead of key economic events.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Risk aversion offered limited support to the Dollar.

• US Economic Data: Investors awaited additional economic data to assess the Fed’s policy outlook.

• FOMC Outcome: Expectations for a less aggressive tightening path continued weighing on the Dollar.

• Trade Policy: Trade developments remained limited.

• Monetary Policy: Interest rate expectations remained the dominant driver for the Dollar Index.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish

• Resistance: 101.50

• Support: 100.80

• Forecast: DXY may remain under pressure while markets favor higher-yielding currencies and await fresh US economic catalysts.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish in the near term.

• Catalysts: US economic data, Federal Reserve communications, and global risk sentiment.

Wrap-Up

Currency markets remained supported by broad US Dollar weakness as investors focused on central bank policy expectations and resilient economic fundamentals. The Euro led gains ahead of the ECB policy decision, while the British Pound, Swiss Franc, and Australian Dollar also advanced on a combination of improving domestic conditions and softer Dollar sentiment. Although geopolitical tensions continued to encourage cautious trading, monetary policy expectations remained the dominant driver across foreign exchange markets. Traders will closely monitor the ECB’s decision, upcoming US economic data, and developments in the Middle East for further direction in the sessions ahead.

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Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.