Oil Surges on Geopolitical Risks as Dollar Eases From 18-Month High | 13th October, 2026
Oil Surges, Dollar Retreats
Global markets remain sensitive to escalating geopolitical tensions as WTI crude oil holds above $91.50 per barrel amid concerns over attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and potential supply disruptions. Silver retreats toward $60.00 as higher energy prices and a relatively strong US Dollar weigh on the precious metal. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar remains steady following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting minutes, while the Japanese Yen strengthens despite softer producer price data. The US Dollar Index has slipped below 102.50 after reaching an 18-month peak, as investors assess Treasury yields, inflation risks, and expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.
WTI CRUDE OIL Forecast
Current Price and Context
WTI crude oil is trading around $92.49 per barrel, according to the latest available market reporting, after geopolitical concerns supported prices in the previous session. Continued attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and persistent Middle East supply risks are keeping uncertainty elevated, although expectations of additional Russian fuel supplies could limit further gains.
Key Drivers
- Geopolitical Risks: Attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and continuing Middle East tensions could disrupt energy supplies and sustain a geopolitical risk premium in crude oil prices.
- US Economic Data: Upcoming US inflation and retail sales reports could influence oil demand expectations by providing fresh insights into economic activity and consumer spending.
- FOMC Outcome: Expectations of restrictive Federal Reserve policy could weigh on crude oil demand if higher borrowing costs slow economic growth.
- Trade Policy: Changes in sanctions, tariffs, and international energy trade restrictions could affect crude oil availability and global supply dynamics.
- Monetary Policy: Expectations for interest rates and movements in the US Dollar could influence oil purchasing costs and investor demand for energy commodities.
Technical Outlook
- Trend: WTI maintains a bullish short-term bias while prices remain elevated above $91.50, although potential increases in supply could trigger a correction.
- Resistance: The $93.00–$94.00 zone is a potential resistance area where additional buying could encounter selling pressure.
- Support: The $91.50 level is an immediate area to monitor, followed by the psychological $90.00 level if selling pressure intensifies.
- Forecast: WTI could advance toward $93.00–$94.00 if supply concerns intensify, while easing geopolitical risks could trigger a pullback toward $90.00.
Sentiment and Catalysts
- Market Sentiment: Sentiment remains cautiously bullish toward crude oil as geopolitical risks support prices, although expectations of additional fuel supplies could limit the upside.
- Catalysts: Developments in Ukraine and the Middle East, US inventory data, Russian fuel exports, and global demand expectations will influence WTI’s next move.
SILVER (XAG/USD) Forecast
Current Price and Context
Silver is trading near $60.00 per ounce, with recent market reporting placing spot prices around $60.51 as the metal faces pressure from a firm US Dollar and higher oil prices. Rising energy costs are adding to inflation concerns, potentially encouraging the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy and limiting Silver’s recovery potential.
Key Drivers
- Geopolitical Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions are increasing uncertainty across financial markets, although safe-haven demand could provide some support to precious metals.
- US Economic Data: Upcoming US CPI and PPI reports could influence Silver prices by reshaping expectations for inflation, Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy.
- FOMC Outcome: A hawkish Federal Reserve stance could pressure Silver by supporting the Dollar and increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
- Trade Policy: Changes in international trade conditions could affect industrial activity and demand for Silver, which serves both precious-metal and industrial purposes.
- Monetary Policy: Expectations of higher interest rates for longer could limit Silver’s upside, while falling yields and a weaker Dollar could encourage a recovery.
Technical Outlook
- Trend: Silver faces short-term bearish pressure as prices approach $60.00 amid Dollar strength and concerns about elevated interest rates.
- Resistance: The $61.00–$62.00 zone represents a potential resistance area that Silver would need to reclaim to strengthen its recovery outlook.
- Support: The $60.00 psychological level is the immediate support to monitor, with a sustained break below it potentially exposing lower levels.
- Forecast: Silver may remain under pressure if the Dollar strengthens further, while a sustained recovery above $61.00 could indicate improving bullish momentum.
Sentiment and Catalysts
- Market Sentiment: Sentiment toward Silver remains cautious as Dollar strength and interest-rate uncertainty offset potential safe-haven demand.
- Catalysts: US inflation data, Treasury yields, Dollar movements, industrial demand expectations, and geopolitical developments will determine Silver’s next direction.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (AUD/USD) Forecast
Current Price and Context
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6956, with the Australian Dollar remaining relatively steady following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting minutes. Policymakers expressed concern that inflation could remain persistent, leaving the possibility of another rate increase open, while broader US Dollar movements and geopolitical uncertainty continue to influence the currency pair.
Key Drivers
- Geopolitical Risks: Higher energy prices and escalating geopolitical tensions could weigh on risk-sensitive currencies, although stronger commodity prices may provide some support to the Australian Dollar.
- US Economic Data: Upcoming US inflation figures could influence AUD/USD, with stronger readings potentially supporting the Dollar and weaker results providing relief to the Australian currency.
- FOMC Outcome: Expectations of restrictive Federal Reserve policy could limit AUD/USD gains if US interest rates remain comparatively attractive.
- Trade Policy: Changes in global trade conditions, particularly those affecting Chinese demand for Australian commodities, could influence the Australian Dollar’s performance.
- Monetary Policy: The RBA’s concerns about persistent inflation and the possibility of additional tightening could support the Australian Dollar if domestic interest-rate expectations strengthen.
Technical Outlook
- Trend: AUD/USD remains vulnerable to downside pressure from US Dollar strength, although expectations of further RBA tightening could help stabilize the pair.
- Resistance: The 0.7000 psychological level is a key resistance area, with a sustained breakout potentially improving the pair’s bullish outlook.
- Support: The 0.6950 area is a potential near-term support level, while a break below it could expose the pair to further losses.
- Forecast: AUD/USD may consolidate around current levels as traders assess RBA policy signals and US inflation data, with a sustained break above 0.7000 needed to strengthen the recovery outlook.
Sentiment and Catalysts
- Market Sentiment: Sentiment toward the Australian Dollar is mixed as expectations of further RBA tightening provide support while geopolitical uncertainty and Dollar strength limit gains.
- Catalysts: RBA policy expectations, Australian employment and inflation data, US economic releases, commodity prices, and Chinese economic conditions will influence AUD/USD.
JAPANESE YEN (USD/JPY) Forecast
Current Price and Context
USD/JPY has been trading around the 158.40–159.00 region, with the Japanese Yen showing resilience despite softer-than-expected Japanese producer price data. The latest wholesale inflation figures showed annual price growth of 6.8% in September, below the 7.6% market forecast, while shifting US Dollar momentum and demand for defensive currencies have contributed to the Yen’s recent strength.
Key Drivers
- Geopolitical Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions could support defensive demand for the Japanese Yen, although higher energy prices may weigh on Japan because of its reliance on imported energy.
- US Economic Data: Upcoming US inflation figures could influence USD/JPY, with stronger-than-expected results potentially supporting the Dollar and weaker readings potentially extending the Yen’s recovery.
- FOMC Outcome: A hawkish Federal Reserve outlook could limit Yen strength by maintaining a wide interest-rate differential between the United States and Japan.
- Trade Policy: Changes in global trade conditions could affect Japanese export demand and influence the outlook for the Yen.
- Monetary Policy: Expectations for Bank of Japan policy normalization could support the Yen, while continued differences between Japanese and US interest rates could restrict its gains.
Technical Outlook
- Trend: The Yen is showing signs of near-term strength as USD/JPY retreats, although the broader direction remains sensitive to interest-rate differentials and Dollar movements.
- Resistance: The 159.00–160.00 zone is a potential resistance area for USD/JPY, where renewed selling pressure or intervention concerns could emerge.
- Support: The 158.00 level is a potential near-term support area for USD/JPY, with a sustained break below it potentially signaling additional Yen strength.
- Forecast: The Yen could extend its recovery if USD/JPY breaks below 158.00, while a rebound in the Dollar could push the pair back toward the 159.00–160.00 resistance zone.
Sentiment and Catalysts
- Market Sentiment: Sentiment toward the Yen is cautiously positive as defensive demand and potential Bank of Japan policy normalization compete with the impact of higher energy prices and interest-rate differentials.
- Catalysts: US inflation data, Japanese economic indicators, Bank of Japan policy signals, intervention concerns, and geopolitical developments will influence the Yen’s direction.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Forecast
Current Price and Context
The US Dollar Index has retreated below 102.50, with recent reporting placing it near 102.39 after a modest decline from its highest levels since April 2025. Softer Treasury yields and easing oil prices have contributed to the pullback, although geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of relatively restrictive US monetary policy continue to provide underlying support to the Dollar.
Key Drivers
- Geopolitical Risks: Continuing tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East could sustain safe-haven demand for the US Dollar despite its recent retreat.
- US Economic Data: Upcoming US CPI and PPI reports could determine whether the Dollar resumes its advance or extends its correction by reshaping interest-rate expectations.
- FOMC Outcome: Expectations of a Federal Reserve pause could limit Dollar gains, while renewed concerns about persistent inflation could strengthen the case for restrictive policy.
- Trade Policy: Uncertainty surrounding US trade measures and their potential impact on inflation and global economic growth could contribute to further Dollar volatility.
- Monetary Policy: Relatively elevated US interest rates could continue supporting the Dollar against currencies whose central banks maintain less restrictive policies.
Technical Outlook
- Trend: The DXY retains a broadly supported medium-term outlook following its recent rally, although the decline below 102.50 indicates near-term corrective pressure.
- Resistance: The 102.50–102.60 zone is the immediate resistance area to monitor, with a sustained breakout potentially opening the way toward the recent peak.
- Support: The 102.00 psychological level is a potential initial support area, while a sustained break below it could expose the index to a deeper correction.
- Forecast: The DXY may consolidate below 102.50 ahead of US inflation data, with a recovery above resistance favoring renewed bullish momentum and a break below 102.00 increasing downside risks.
Sentiment and Catalysts
- Market Sentiment: Sentiment toward the US Dollar remains cautiously bullish as safe-haven demand and relatively high US interest rates provide support despite the latest pullback.
- Catalysts: US inflation data, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve commentary, geopolitical developments, and movements in major currency pairs will determine the Dollar’s next move.
Wrap-Up
Global markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments as energy supply concerns keep crude oil prices elevated and reinforce inflation risks. Silver is under pressure from Dollar strength and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, while the Australian Dollar remains steady as traders assess the RBA’s inflation outlook. The Japanese Yen has strengthened despite softer producer price data, and the US Dollar Index has eased below 102.50 after reaching an 18-month peak. Traders should monitor upcoming US inflation releases, central bank signals, and key technical levels while maintaining disciplined risk management amid continued market volatility.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
