Easing US-Iran Tensions and US-China Trade Optimism Shape Global Markets | 9th November, 2026

Oil Slips, Tariffs Pause

Global markets start the week with easing US-Iran tensions pulling oil prices lower after President Trump said further strikes on Iran are highly unlikely if talks progress, while China’s decision to extend the suspension of its 24% tariff on US imports for two months lifted trade sentiment. WTI fell to near $89.50, silver recovered toward $53.00 as lower oil eased inflation pressure, AUD/USD rebounded toward 0.6900 even as China’s October CPI slowed to 0.7%, and USD/CAD held near 1.4110 after Friday’s strong US payrolls of 165K, against roughly 60K expected, kept December Fed hike odds near 80%. Traders are now watching US-Iran negotiations and Strait of Hormuz developments, this week’s US inflation data, Fed commentary and the 10 November start of China’s extended tariff suspension for fresh direction.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude oil fell to near $89.50 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday, 9 November 2026, as President Trump said further strikes on Iran are highly unlikely if progress is made on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz talks. Prices remain volatile after last week’s heavy losses of roughly 12%, with Secretary of State Rubio tempering expectations by calling Iran’s current demands unacceptable and both sides reporting shipping hits near Hormuz.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s signal that new strikes are highly unlikely if talks progress is removing risk premium, although Rubio’s skepticism, shipping incidents near Hormuz and Iran’s threat to retaliate against US and Israeli targets could quickly restore it.
• US Economic Data: Friday’s payrolls beat, at 165K against roughly 60K expected with unemployment at 4.1%, points to resilient fuel demand, while this week’s US inflation data and EIA inventories could shape sentiment.
• FOMC Outcome: December Fed hike odds near 80% and a stronger Dollar after payrolls could weigh on crude by raising its cost for non-US buyers, whereas a softer Dollar would support prices.
• Trade Policy: China’s two-month extension of its 24% tariff suspension, with a 10% tariff retained, improves the outlook for global trade and oil demand, although uncertainty over US Section 301 tariffs remains.
• Monetary Policy: Hawkish central banks such as the BoE at 4.00% and the Fed’s hike bias raise the risk of slower growth and weaker oil demand, although energy-driven inflation keeps policymakers cautious.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: WTI trades just below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $89.88 while holding above the 200-day SMA at $86.10, which keeps the near-term bias constructive but fragile.
• Resistance: Resistance appears at the $89.88 Fibonacci level and the $90.00-$91.00 area, followed by the 23.6% retracement near $95.31.
• Support: Initial support is the $88.00 psychological level as an indicative reference, followed by the $86.10-$85.49 zone where the 200-day SMA and 50% retracement cluster.
• Forecast: WTI could extend losses toward $86.10 if US-Iran talks progress and Hormuz flows keep recovering, whereas a renewed supply scare could lift it back toward $90.00 and $95.31.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautious and headline-driven, with the risk premium fading on diplomacy but supply threats keeping traders from committing to a sustained downtrend.
• Catalysts: US-Iran negotiations, Strait of Hormuz shipping incidents, Wednesday’s EIA inventory data and the Dollar’s reaction to US inflation figures could determine WTI’s next move.

XAG/USD (Silver) Forecast

USD/JPY Forecast

Silver (XAG/USD) rose to around $53.00 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday, 9 November 2026, after two days of losses, as declining oil prices following Trump’s comments eased inflation pressure. Gains remain limited because CME FedWatch shows a 78% or higher probability of a December Fed hike after Friday’s strong jobs report, which keeps pressure on non-yielding assets.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Easing US-Iran tensions are lowering oil prices and inflation fears, which supports silver, although renewed strikes or Hormuz disruptions could lift energy prices and revive Fed hike expectations.
• US Economic Data: Friday’s 165K payrolls and 4.1% unemployment rate strengthened the case for further Fed tightening, so this week’s US inflation data could either cap or extend silver’s rebound.
• FOMC Outcome: December hike odds near 80% and hawkish Fed signals could keep pressure on non-yielding silver, whereas any softening in Fed expectations could lift the metal.
• Trade Policy: China’s extension of its 24% tariff suspension supports industrial demand expectations for silver, although uncertainty over US Section 301 tariffs could still affect global growth sentiment.
• Monetary Policy: A higher-rate backdrop from the Fed and the BoE’s move to 4.00% could keep the opportunity cost of holding silver elevated, while lower energy prices could temper inflation and ease pressure on central banks.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: XAG/USD remains in a broader bearish structure below its 21-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with the rebound from the $48.47 yearly low still in recovery mode.
• Resistance: Resistance appears at the 78.6% Fibonacci level near $53.35, followed by the cycle high near $54.64 and the $55.00 round number.
• Support: Initial support is the $52.34 Fibonacci level, followed by the $51.25 recent low and the $50.00 psychological level.
• Forecast: Silver could extend toward $53.35 and $54.64 if oil keeps falling and inflation data soften Fed hike bets, whereas a break below $52.34 would expose $51.25.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously improving on lower oil and short covering, but hike expectations and the broader downtrend keep buyers selective.
• Catalysts: US inflation data, Fed commentary, oil prices tied to US-Iran talks and the Dollar’s direction could determine silver’s next move.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD lost ground after two days of gains, trading around 1.4110 during Asian hours on Monday, 9 November 2026, as the US Dollar eased on reduced US-Iran tensions after Friday’s strong payrolls had pushed the Dollar Index to about 102.22. The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar remains under pressure from falling oil prices, and December Fed hike odds near 80% limit the pair’s downside.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced US-Iran tensions are softening safe-haven Dollar demand but also pushing oil lower, which weighs on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar and limits USD/CAD downside.
• US Economic Data: Friday’s 165K payrolls and the upcoming US inflation data could keep Fed hike expectations elevated and support USD/CAD, while soft inflation could trigger a pullback.
• FOMC Outcome: December Fed hike odds near 80% keep the Dollar supported, so any softening in Fed expectations could pressure USD/CAD.
• Trade Policy: US-China tariff easing improves global trade sentiment, but with no specific US-Canada trade catalyst in today’s reporting, any US tariff shift on Canada would affect the Loonie through growth expectations.
• Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada’s recent hike to 2.50% narrows the rate gap with the United States, although Fed tightening bets and lower oil prices could limit the benefit for the Loonie.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: USD/CAD has rebounded from its seven-week low near 1.3930 and trades above the 100-day SMA near 1.4047, though the bounce remains within a broader consolidation.
• Resistance: Resistance appears at the Bollinger middle band near 1.4140, followed by the upper band toward 1.4350 as an indicative level.
• Support: Initial support is the 1.4047-1.4080 area where the 100-day SMA and the October range top sit, followed by the 1.4000 psychological level.
• Forecast: USD/CAD could test 1.4140 if inflation data keep Fed hike bets alive and oil stays weak, whereas a drop back below 1.4047 would expose 1.4000.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Sentiment toward the Loonie is mixed, as BoC tightening and a softer Dollar compete with falling oil prices and strong US data.
• Catalysts: US inflation data, oil price moves tied to US-Iran talks, Fed commentary and US-Canada trade headlines could determine the pair’s next move.

USD/CNY Forecast

Current Price and Context

The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7188 on Monday, 9 November 2026, compared with 6.7168 on Friday and a Reuters estimate of 6.6799, a fix about 389 pips weaker than market models projected. China’s cabinet also said it will extend the suspension of its additional 24% tariff on US imports for two months from 10 November while retaining a 10% tariff, with the fix serving as the latest verified reference level for the pair.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Easing US-Iran tensions and lower oil prices could reduce safe-haven Dollar demand and favor yuan strength, while renewed conflict could revive Dollar demand and push USD/CNY higher.
• US Economic Data: Friday’s strong US payrolls and upcoming inflation data could support the Dollar through higher Fed hike expectations, whereas softer figures could allow the yuan to extend gains.
• FOMC Outcome: December Fed hike odds near 80% support the Dollar broadly, although the PBOC’s fixes, which remain weaker than model estimates, suggest it is moderating the pace of yuan gains.
• Trade Policy: China’s extension of its 24% tariff suspension, which retains a 10% tariff, supports a stable trade environment, while its warning that it will adjust countermeasures if the US replaces invalidated IEEPA tariffs with Section 301 tariffs keeps a downside risk for sentiment.
• Monetary Policy: Mixed China data, with October CPI at 0.7% against 0.8% expected and PPI at 5.7%, leave PBOC policy support options open, which could influence yuan sentiment.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: USD/CNY fixes have edged only slightly higher this week, from 6.7156 on Thursday to 6.7168 on Friday and 6.7188 on Monday, which keeps the pair in a narrow range.
• Resistance: No verified chart resistance was available, so the upper edge of the PBOC’s permitted 2% band around the fix serves as the outer indicative ceiling for spot trading.
• Support: No verified chart support was available, so the onshore trading zone near 6.6523-6.6620, last verified in late October, serves as an indicative floor.
• Forecast: USD/CNY could drift gradually lower if trade optimism persists and the Dollar softens, whereas a firmer Dollar on Fed hike bets and fixes persistently weaker than estimates could stall that move.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Sentiment toward the yuan is constructive on US-China tariff easing, although the PBOC’s weaker-than-expected fixes suggest authorities want to limit the speed of appreciation.
• Catalysts: Daily PBOC fixings, US-China trade headlines, US inflation data and Fed commentary could determine the pair’s next move.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD held a rebound just below 0.6900 in the Asian session on Monday, 9 November 2026, up about 0.4% on the day, after mixed China data showed October CPI easing to 0.7% year on year against 0.8% expected while PPI rose to 5.7%. The Aussie is supported by China’s extension of its 24% tariff suspension and reduced US-Iran tensions, although December Fed hike odds near 80% after Friday’s strong payrolls keep the US Dollar well supported.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced US-Iran tensions are lifting risk sentiment and the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar, although renewed escalation could revive safe-haven Dollar demand.
• US Economic Data: Friday’s strong payrolls and upcoming US inflation data could keep Fed hike expectations elevated and cap AUD/USD, while softer figures could extend the rebound.
• FOMC Outcome: December Fed hike odds near 80% keep the Dollar supported, so any shift in Fed pricing could move AUD/USD sharply.
• Trade Policy: China’s two-month extension of its 24% tariff suspension improves the outlook for Australia’s largest trading partner, although China’s warning about Section 301 tariffs leaves trade risks in play.
• Monetary Policy: The RBA’s 4.85% cash rate and its split 6-3 vote leave the Aussie supported by yield but without clear guidance on further hikes, so Fed hike bets could outweigh RBA support.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: AUD/USD remains capped below 0.6900 after rebounding from last week’s lows near 0.6850, which keeps the short-term tone cautious despite the intraday gain.
• Resistance: Resistance appears at 0.6900, where a multi-month trendline was previously defended, followed by 0.6950 and the 0.7000 psychological level.
• Support: Initial support is the 0.6860-0.6830 March low zone, which includes last week’s low near 0.6850.
• Forecast: AUD/USD could retest 0.6950 if it clears 0.6900 and US-China optimism persists, whereas rejection at 0.6900 and firm US data would expose the 0.6860-0.6830 zone.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously improving on trade optimism and lower geopolitical risk, although the Dollar’s strength after payrolls keeps bulls selective.
• Catalysts: US inflation data, Fed commentary, US-China trade headlines and Chinese activity data could determine the pair’s next move.

Wrap-Up

Easing US-Iran tensions and US-China trade optimism are the main themes, pushing oil lower, helping silver and the Aussie rebound, and weighing on the Canadian Dollar, while strong US payrolls and near 80% December Fed hike odds keep the US Dollar supported. US-Iran negotiations and Hormuz shipping developments, this week’s US inflation data, Fed commentary, EIA inventories and the 10 November start of China’s extended tariff suspension are the principal catalysts. Traders should monitor whether US inflation data sustain Fed hike pricing and whether key technical levels hold, remembering that every scenario in this report is conditional.

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