This site uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. By visiting monetamarkets.com, you accept our cookie policy.
Allow all
This site uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. By visiting monetamarkets.com, you accept our cookie policy.
Allow all
Global financial markets on May 20, 2025, are driven by central bank actions and geopolitical developments, with focus on the RBA’s press conference post-rate cut, PBoC’s LPR reduction, and potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks. The US Dollar weakens (DXY at 100.60) after Moody’s downgrade, lifting GBP/USD and NZD/USD, while AUD/JPY softens amid JPY strength. Gold and silver face pressure, with Fed rate-cut bets (September start) and US data in focus.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,200, down from recent highs.
Market Dynamics: Optimism over Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks and US-China trade truce (90-day tariff pause) reduces safe-haven demand, pressuring gold. Moody’s US credit downgrade (Aa1) and softer US data (CPI 2.3% YoY, PPI -0.5% MoM) boost Fed rate-cut bets, capping USD strength but failing to lift gold. Geopolitical risks (Gaza offensive) offer limited support. Fed speeches today are key.
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,178; resistance at $3,252. Bearish oscillators signal downside, with $3,120 as a target.
Current Level: AUD/JPY trades near 93.00, down 0.55%.
Key Drivers: RBA’s 25 bps rate cut to 3.85% weakens AUD, with Governor Bullock’s press conference (05:30 GMT) critical for guidance on global trade risks. BoJ’s hawkish stance (Uchida’s rate-hike comments) and Japan’s PPI pressures bolster JPY. US-China trade optimism caps JPY gains, with RBA’s tone and Fed speeches as catalysts.
Technical Outlook: Support at 92.50; resistance at 94.00. RSI below 50 favors bears, with press conference pivotal.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3360, up for the second day.
Key Drivers: USD weakness post-Moody’s downgrade (Aa1) and soft US data (PPI -0.5% MoM, Retail Sales +0.1%) lift GBP. Strong UK GDP (1% projected) and steady unemployment (4.5%) reduce BoE easing bets. UK CPI (Wednesday, core 3.6% YoY expected) will shape BoE policy views, with Fed speeches influencing USD.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3400; support at 1.3300. RSI above 50 signals bullish momentum, with CPI key.
Current Level: NZD/USD trades near 0.5920, slightly down.
Market Dynamics: PBoC’s LPR cut (1-year to 3.00%) pressures NZD due to New Zealand’s trade ties with China. Q1 producer price spikes signal inflation, supporting NZD, but Russia-Ukraine ceasefire optimism weighs. Moody’s US downgrade weakens USD, aiding NZD/USD. RBA’s rate cut and press conference are focal points.
Technical Outlook: Support at 0.5900; resistance at 0.6000. RSI near 50 suggests consolidation, with RBA tone critical.
Current Level: Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $32.20, down for the third day.
Market Dynamics: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks reduce safe-haven demand, pressuring silver. Moody’s US downgrade and Fed rate-cut bets (two cuts in 2025) limit losses, but risk-on sentiment dominates. US data (CPI 2.3% YoY) and Fed speeches drive sentiment, with Middle East tensions offering minor support.
Technical Outlook: Support at $32.00; resistance at $32.50. Bearish RSI below 50 signals downside, with $30.00 in view.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 144.80, below 145.00.
Key Drivers: JPY strengthens on BoJ rate-hike bets (Uchida’s hawkish comments) and Japan’s inflation pressures. USD weakens post-Moody’s downgrade and dovish Fed signals (74% chance of September cut). Russia-Ukraine talks cap JPY’s safe-haven demand, with Fed speeches and G7 FX talks (Bessent absent) as catalysts.
Technical Outlook: Support at 144.65; resistance at 146.00. Bearish oscillators favor downside, with 144.00 as a target.
Today’s Data: No major US data releases, but Fed speeches (Bostic, Jefferson, Kashkari, Williams) will shape rate-cut expectations (two cuts priced in). UK CPI (Wednesday) and US UoM Consumer Sentiment (last week: 53.4 expected) remain in focus. Australian jobs (+89,000) and RBA’s rate cut influence AUD sentiment.
Geopolitical Developments: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks (Trump’s announcement) and Gaza escalations (Israeli offensive) reduce safe-haven flows, though Middle East risks persist. US-Iran nuclear talks add optimism.
China Data: PBoC’s LPR cut (3.00%) and mixed April data (strong industrial output, weak retail sales) pressure NZD and AUD. Trade surplus ($96.18 billion) reflects slower export growth (8.1% YoY).
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-China 90-day tariff truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) and chipmaker blacklist concerns sustain risk-on sentiment, but uncertainties linger. US-UK deal (10% tariffs) supports GBP.
Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine talks and US-Iran nuclear optimism reduce JPY and gold demand, while Gaza operations and India-Pakistan risks maintain some safe-haven interest.
Outlook
On May 20, 2025, USD weakness (DXY at 100.60) lifts GBP/USD (1.3360) and NZD/USD (0.5920), while JPY strength pressures AUD/JPY (93.00) and USD/JPY (144.80). Gold ($3,200) and silver ($32.20) face downside amid ceasefire optimism. RBA’s press conference, Fed speeches, and UK CPI will drive volatility, with geopolitical risks and US data in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
