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Global markets opened with a cautious tone as oil prices slipped despite lingering supply concerns, weighing on broader commodity sentiment. Across FX, price action remained mixed, with the Japanese Yen turning cautious amid fiscal and political uncertainty, the Australian Dollar holding near multi-month highs, and Asian currencies steady as traders monitored policy signals from China and ongoing global macro risks.
WTI crude trades lower near the $60.50 area as prices retreat despite ongoing supply-side concerns. The pullback reflects cautious positioning as demand uncertainty and broader risk sentiment outweigh near-term supply risks.
• Geopolitical Risks: Supply risks remain present, but geopolitical tensions have not escalated enough to trigger fresh buying.
• US Economic Data: Softer demand expectations linked to global growth concerns are pressuring prices.
• FOMC Outcome: Fed uncertainty is weighing on risk assets, including energy markets.
• Trade Policy: Trade-related risks continue to cloud the global demand outlook.
• Monetary Policy: Tight global financial conditions are limiting upside momentum for oil.
• Trend: Short-term trend has turned mildly bearish below recent highs.
• Resistance: Resistance is seen near $62.00.
• Support: Initial support lies around $60.00.
• Forecast: WTI may remain under pressure unless demand expectations improve.
• Market Sentiment: Cautious to mildly bearish.
• Catalysts: Inventory data, geopolitical headlines, and global growth signals.
USD/JPY trades with a firmer tone as Yen bulls turn cautious amid fiscal concerns and rising political uncertainty in Japan. The pair remains supported by policy divergence and steady US yields.
• Geopolitical Risks: Political uncertainty in Japan is weighing on Yen sentiment.
• US Economic Data: Stable US data continues to support the Dollar side of the pair.
• FOMC Outcome: Expectations of a cautious Fed are limiting sharp USD moves.
• Trade Policy: Trade tensions add to overall market uncertainty but have limited direct impact.
• Monetary Policy: The BoJ’s accommodative stance continues to pressure the Yen.
• Trend: The short-term trend remains bullish.
• Resistance: Resistance is located near 159.00.
• Support: Support is seen around 157.00.
• Forecast: The pair may remain supported while Yen sentiment stays fragile.
• Market Sentiment: Favors the Dollar over the Yen.
• Catalysts: Japanese fiscal headlines and US macro data.
AUD/USD holds above the 0.6900 level, hovering near 16-month highs as the Australian Dollar remains resilient. Strong domestic fundamentals continue to offset broader risk-off pressures.
• Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty has not significantly dented AUD demand so far.
• US Economic Data: A softer US Dollar has supported the pair.
• FOMC Outcome: Fed uncertainty is keeping USD gains capped.
• Trade Policy: China-related trade dynamics remain a key medium-term factor.
• Monetary Policy: RBA rate expectations remain supportive for the Aussie.
• Trend: The trend remains bullish.
• Resistance: Resistance is seen near 0.6950.
• Support: Support is located around 0.6850.
• Forecast: The pair may consolidate with a bullish bias while above support.
• Market Sentiment: Constructive but cautious.
• Catalysts: Australian data releases and global risk sentiment.
The US Dollar Index trades near the 97.00 level as Fed uncertainty and US shutdown fears weigh on the Greenback. Traders remain hesitant to add fresh Dollar exposure ahead of key policy clarity.
• Geopolitical Risks: Political uncertainty is dampening Dollar demand.
• US Economic Data: Mixed data has failed to provide fresh support.
• FOMC Outcome: Uncertainty around the Fed’s guidance is the main driver of weakness.
• Trade Policy: Trade risks continue to add to macro uncertainty.
• Monetary Policy: Expectations of a cautious Fed stance are weighing on the Dollar.
• Trend: The short-term trend remains bearish.
• Resistance: Resistance is seen near 97.80.
• Support: Support is located around 96.50.
• Forecast: The Dollar may remain under pressure ahead of policy clarity.
• Market Sentiment: Defensive and cautious.
• Catalysts: Fed communication and US political developments.
USD/CNY remains stable as the PBOC sets the daily fixing at 6.9858, slightly higher than the previous session. The pair continues to reflect tight policy management by Chinese authorities.
• Geopolitical Risks: RRegional geopolitical risks remain contained.
• US Economic Data: Dollar softness has limited upside pressure.
• FOMC Outcome: Fed uncertainty is indirectly influencing the pair.
• Trade Policy: Ongoing trade considerations remain a background factor.
• Monetary Policy: Active PBOC management continues to anchor price action.
• Trend: The trend remains range-bound.
• Resistance: Resistance is seen near 7.0000.
• Support: Support is located around 6.9700.
• Forecast: USD/CNY is expected to trade within a narrow range.
• Market Sentiment: Stable and controlled.
• Catalysts: PBOC fixings and broader USD moves.
Overall, markets continue to trade selectively as investors balance supply dynamics in energy markets with uncertainty around fiscal policy, geopolitics, and central bank guidance. With volatility likely to remain elevated, near-term direction across commodities and currencies will depend on incoming macro data, policy developments, and shifts in risk sentiment.
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