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Currency markets are led by renewed weakness in the Japanese Yen after Japan’s National CPI cooled, falling below the Bank of Japan’s target and dampening expectations for further policy tightening. The softer inflation print has reinforced the policy divergence narrative, keeping the US Dollar supported and lifting yen crosses such as AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling hovers near a one-month low against the Greenback, and the Australian Dollar remains pressured ahead of key US macro releases, reflecting broader Dollar resilience.
USD/JPY remains elevated as the Japanese Yen weakens following softer National CPI data, which cooled below the Bank of Japan’s inflation target. The data dampens expectations for further near-term tightening from the BoJ, keeping the Dollar supported.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited safe-haven demand for the Yen.
Japan Economic Data: Cooling CPI reduces tightening expectations.
US Economic Data: Firm US yields underpin USD strength.
Trade Policy: Stable global trade flows limit volatility.
Monetary Policy: Fed-BoJ policy divergence remains the dominant theme.
Trend: Bullish bias.
Resistance: 150.20
Support: 148.80
Forecast: Upside risks persist while inflation softness keeps the Yen under pressure.
Market Sentiment: Bullish USD / Bearish JPY.
Catalysts: US macro data, BoJ commentary, US Treasury yields.
AUD/JPY maintains a bullish tone above 109.00 as weaker Japanese CPI weighs on the Yen and supports cross-yen demand.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable risk appetite favors higher-yielding currencies.
Japan CPI: Inflation below target reduces BoJ tightening bets.
Australian Outlook: Relative yield appeal supports AUD positioning.
Trade Policy: Asia-Pacific trade conditions remain steady.
Monetary Policy: RBA-BoJ divergence reinforces upside momentum.
Trend: Bullish.
Resistance: 110.20
Support: 108.60
Forecast: Further gains likely if risk sentiment holds firm.
Market Sentiment: Constructive risk-on tone.
Catalysts: US data, BoJ signals, broader market risk appetite.
EUR/JPY tests confluence resistance near 182.50 around the nine-day EMA as Yen weakness drives cross demand.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited safe-haven flows into JPY.
Japan CPI: Soft inflation undermines Yen strength.
Eurozone Data: Stable fundamentals support the Euro.
Trade Policy: Neutral impact on the cross.
Monetary Policy: ECB-BoJ divergence supports higher levels.
Trend: Bullish with resistance test.
Resistance: 182.50
Support: 181.20
Forecast: A sustained break above 182.50 could open room for further upside.
Market Sentiment: Positive bias.
Catalysts: BoJ rhetoric, Eurozone data, global risk trends.
GBP/USD hovers near a one-month low as Sterling remains vulnerable against a firm US Dollar ahead of key US economic data.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct impact.
UK Economic Data: Soft outlook pressures BoE expectations.
US Economic Data: Upcoming releases may reinforce USD momentum.
Trade Policy: Stable global backdrop limits direction.
Monetary Policy: BoE-Fed divergence weighs on Sterling.
Trend: Bearish bias.
Resistance: 1.3520
Support: 1.3380
Forecast: Further downside possible if US data surprises to the upside.
Market Sentiment: Bearish GBP tone.
Catalysts: US macro releases, BoE commentary, yield spreads.
AUD/USD trades near a two-week low as a firmer US Dollar offsets domestic resilience, with markets awaiting key US macro data.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable global environment.
Australian Data: Limited immediate support from domestic releases.
US Economic Data: Stronger US outlook supports USD demand.
Trade Policy: China-linked trade dynamics remain influential.
Monetary Policy: Fed resilience contrasts with cautious RBA tone.
Trend: Bearish within consolidation.
Resistance: 0.7120
Support: 0.7020
Forecast: Downside risks remain unless USD momentum fades.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish.
Catalysts: US macro data, risk sentiment, yield movements.
With Japan’s inflation momentum easing, the Yen may remain on the defensive unless fresh signals emerge from the Bank of Japan. Broader FX direction now hinges on upcoming US economic data, which could either reinforce Dollar strength or trigger a corrective pullback. As policy divergence continues to shape currency flows, volatility across major and cross pairs is likely to persist in the near term.
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