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On June 20, 2025, markets reflect cautious optimism as US President Trump’s two-week delay on Iran strike decisions eases immediate war fears, boosting risk appetite. Gold (XAU/USD) slips to $3,360.10, on track for weekly losses, pressured by a hawkish Fed (two rate cuts projected for 2025) and USD strength (DXY at 98.60). Silver (XAG/USD) falls to $35.80 amid profit-taking and reduced safe-haven demand. EUR/USD rises to 1.1520, supported by fading USD safe-haven flows, while GBP/USD holds at 1.3410 post-BoE’s 4.25% rate hold. AUD/USD steadies at 0.6470, NZD/USD at 0.6000, USD/JPY at 145.00, and USD/CHF consolidates at 0.8150 after SNB’s hawkish pause. WTI crude remains at $76.40, supported by Middle East tensions despite de-escalation signals. Canada’s Retail Sales and Eurozone Consumer Confidence data are eyed, alongside Trump’s pharma tariff threats and July 9 tariff deadline. Posts on X highlight USD’s retreat and gold’s dip below $3,377.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,360.10, down from $3,387, pressured by Fed’s hawkish stance and USD strength, despite Middle East tensions.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes for two weeks eases immediate war fears, reducing safe-haven demand, but ongoing Israel-Iran conflict supports gold.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) signal slowdown, but Fed’s hawkish outlook overshadows dovish bets.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady 4.25%-4.50% rates, two cuts projected for 2025, and Powell’s inflation concerns (3% year-end forecast) boost DXY to 108.60, capping gold.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariffs and July 19 deadline add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Fed reduces appeal of non-yielding gold, but dip-buying persists near $3,345.
Trend: Bearish short-term, testing ascending channel support at $3,345-$3,340. Negative oscillators (RSI at 48 on daily) suggest further downside.
Resistance: $3,374-$3,375, then $3,400 and $3,434-$3,435.
Support: $3,345-$3,340 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,323-$3,322 and $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,323 if USD strength persists. Easing Middle East tensions could push to $3,300; renewed escalation may lift to $3,400.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,360.10, with bearish bias below $3,377. J.P. Morgan sees $3,675 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
Current Price and Context
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,360.10, down from $3,387, pressured by Fed’s hawkish stance and USD strength, despite Middle East tensions.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes for two weeks eases immediate war fears, reducing safe-haven demand, but ongoing Israel-Iran conflict supports gold.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) signal slowdown, but Fed’s hawkish outlook overshadows dovish bets.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady 4.25%-4.50% rates, two cuts projected for 2025, and Powell’s inflation concerns (3% year-end forecast) boost DXY to 108.60, capping gold.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariffs and July 19 deadline add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Fed reduces appeal of non-yielding gold, but dip-buying persists near $3,345.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish short-term, testing ascending channel support at $3,345-$3,340. Negative oscillators (RSI at 48 on daily) suggest further downside.
Resistance: $3,374-$3,375, then $3,400 and $3,434-$3,435.
Support: $3,345-$3,340 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,323-$3,322 and $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,323 if USD strength persists. Easing Middle East tensions could push to $3,300; renewed escalation may lift to $3,400.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,360.10, with bearish bias below $3,377. J.P. Morgan sees $3,675 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD)
Current Price and Context
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $35.80, down from $36.75, driven by profit-taking and reduced safe-haven demand.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes and lack of new Israel-Iran conflict developments reduce safe-haven flows, pressuring silver.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) supports Fed rate-cut bets, but hawkish Fed stance limits silver’s upside.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: PBoC’s unchanged LPRs (3.00% one-year, 3.50% five-year) signal steady borrowing costs, capping industrial silver demand.
Technical Factors: Bearish momentum grows as RSI drops below 50 on 4H charts.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish short-term, post-pullback from $37.30. Negative oscillators signal further downside.
Resistance: $36.55 (50-period SMA, 4H chart), then $37.00 and $37.30-$37.35 (multi-year high).
Support: $35.50, then $35.00 and $34.50 (50-day SMA).
Forecast: Silver may test $35.00 if risk appetite rises. Renewed Middle East tensions could lift to $36.55; USD strength may push to $34.50.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $35.80, with bearish sentiment. CoinCodex sees $37.79 in 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1520, up from 1.1465, supported by easing USD safe-haven demand and risk-on sentiment.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes boosts risk appetite, supporting EUR.
ECB Policy: Hawkish ECB stance, with Lagarde signaling no further cuts, bolsters EUR.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause (DXY at 108.60) limits EUR/USD upside.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s two-cut projection for 2025 and Powell’s inflation concerns support USD.
Trade Policy: Stalled US-EU trade talks and July 19 tariff deadline pressure EUR.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators (RSI at 55) favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (June high).
Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1570 if risk-on persists. Hawkish Fed rhetoric could push to 1.1435; dovish Eurozone data may drive to 1.1400.
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1520, with bullish bias. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Canada Retail Sales, Middle East developments.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3410, steady post-BoE’s 4.25% rate hold, with focus on UK data and geopolitics.
BoE Policy: BoE’s rate hold and dovish outlook (48 bps cuts by year-end) cap GBP. UK CPI at 3.4% YoY supports caution.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing US-Iran tensions boost risk appetite, limiting USD safe-haven flows.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, but Fed’s hawkish stance supports DXY at 108.60.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and July 19 deadline weigh on GBP sentiment.
UK Economy: Weak growth outlook pressures GBP, with focus on upcoming data.
Trend: Bullish, near three-year highs. Positive oscillators (RSI at 60) suggest consolidation.
Resistance: 1.3460, then 1.3730 (August 2025 forecast high) and 1.3860.
Support: 1.3400, then 1.3350 and 1.3300.
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3460 if risk-on persists. Soft UK data could push to 1.3350; hawkish BoE signals may lift to 1.3730.
Market Sentiment: X posts show GBP/USD at 1.3410, with neutral bias. LongForecast sees 1.3650 by June’s end.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6470, steady amid improved risk sentiment and USD retreat.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes boosts risk appetite, supporting AUD.
Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) caps AUD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, aiding AUD/USD. Fed’s hawkish pause limits gains.
Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD, but Trump’s tariffs add uncertainty.
PBoC Policy: Unchanged LPRs (3.00% one-year, 3.50% five-year) signal steady Chinese demand, neutral for AUD.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI at 50 suggests neutral momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6552 (seven-month high) and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6450 (channel lower boundary), then 0.6431 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6495 if risk-on persists. USD strength could push to 0.6431; strong Australian data may lift to 0.6552.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6470, with bullish potential. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
NZD/USD trades at 0.6000, consolidating near 20-day EMA, supported by risk-on sentiment.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: White House’s no-strike signal on Iran boosts risk appetite, supporting NZD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, aiding NZD/USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause caps gains.
PBoC Policy: Unchanged LPRs (3.00% one-year, 3.50% five-year) signal stable Chinese demand, neutral for NZD, given NZ’s export reliance on China.
NZ Economy: Weak growth outlook and dovish RBNZ (2.75% cash rate) limit NZD upside.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats add uncertainty, pressuring NZD.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Neutral, oscillating near 20-day EMA at 0.6003. RSI at 50 indicates indecision.
Resistance: 0.6040 (June 19 high), then 0.6100 and 0.6145.
Support: 0.5950, then 0.5846 (May 12 low) and 0.5800.
Forecast: NZD/USD may test 0.6040 if risk-on persists. USD strength could push to 0.5846; strong NZ data may lift to 0.6100.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show NZD/USD at 0.6000, with neutral bias. LongForecast sees 0.62 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
On June 20, 2025, markets embrace risk-on sentiment as Trump’s Iran strike delay eases tensions, pressuring gold ($3,360.10) and silver ($35.80) while lifting EUR/USD (1.1520), AUD/USD (0.6470), and NZD/USD (0.6000). USD/JPY (145.00), USD/CHF (0.8150), and USD/CAD (1.3640) soften, with WTI ($76.40) steady. Fed’s hawkish pause, Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, and Middle East developments drive volatility, with Trump’s tariffs looming.
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On June 19, 2025, markets remain cautious following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause, maintaining rates at 4.25%-4.50% and signaling only two rate cuts by year-end 2025. Escalating Israel-Iran tensions, now in their seventh day with Trump approving potential US strikes, drive safe-haven flows. Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher to $3,370.20, but USD strength (DXY at 98.90) caps gains below $3,400. Silver (XAG/USD) holds steady at $36.75, supported by bullish technicals. EUR/USD softens to 1.1465, awaiting ECB speeches, while GBP/USD hovers at 1.3410 ahead of the BoE’s expected 4.25% rate hold. AUD/USD dips to 0.6470, USD/JPY steadies at 145.10, and USD/CHF climbs to 0.8210 ahead of the SNB’s anticipated 25 bps cut to zero. Weak US data (Retail Sales -0.9% MoM, Industrial Production -0.2%) reinforces economic slowdown concerns, while Trump’s pharma tariff threats and Middle East risks fuel volatility. Posts on X highlight gold’s resilience and USD strength post-FOMC.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,370.20, up slightly from the weekly low of $3,362, but struggles below $3,400 amid USD strength post-Fed’s hawkish pause.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict escalates with IDF strikes near Arak and Khondab, and Trump’s approval of potential US attacks raises war risks, supporting safe-haven gold.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) signal economic slowdown, but Fed’s hawkish stance (two cuts by 2025) limits gold’s upside.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady rates and Powell’s comments on tariff-driven inflation (3% year-end forecast) boost DXY to 98.90, capping gold.
Trade Policy: Trump’s looming pharma tariffs and July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Fed outlook overshadows dovish expectations (50 bps cuts in 2025), pressuring non-yielding gold.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying near $3,345.
Resistance: $3,400, then $3,434-$3,435 and $3,451-$3,452 (multi-week high).
Support: $3,345 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,308 (50-day SMA).
Forecast: Gold may test $3,345 if USD strength persists. Dovish ECB or BoE could lift to $3,434; Middle East escalation may drive $3,500.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,370.20, with cautious bullishness targeting $3,400. J.P. Morgan sees $3,675 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.75, consolidating after a pullback from a multi-year high of $37.30-$37.35.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions, with potential US involvement, bolster safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) support Fed rate-cut bets, aiding silver.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, supporting silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.
Technical Factors: Bullish flag breakout and RSI easing from overbought levels validate upside potential.
Trend: Bullish, post-descending trend channel breakout. RSI supports upside but signals caution.
Resistance: $37.00, then $37.30-$37.35 (multi-year high) and $38.00.
Support: $36.55 (50-period SMA, 4H chart), then $36.30 (channel breakpoint) and $36.15.
Forecast: Silver may test $36.55 if USD strengthens. Dovish central bank signals could lift to $37.30; escalation may drive $38.00.
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $36.75, with bullish bias. CoinCodex sees $37.79 in 2025.
Catalysts: ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1465, down slightly, pressured by USD strength and Middle East tensions, awaiting ECB speeches.
ECB Policy: Hawkish ECB, with Lagarde signaling end of rate cuts, supports EUR.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause (DXY at 98.90) limits EUR/USD upside.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s two-cut projection for 2025 and Powell’s inflation concerns bolster USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict and potential US strikes boost USD safe-haven flows, capping EUR/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariffs add volatility, pressuring EUR.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1500, then 1.1570 and 1.1600.
Support: 1.1450-1.1445, then 1.1435-1.1430.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1435 if USD strength persists. Dovish ECB speeches could push to 1.1430; hawkish ECB may lift to 1.1600.
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1465, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: ECB speeches (Lagarde, Nagel, de Guindos), BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3410, subdued ahead of the BoE’s expected rate hold at 4.25%.
BoE Policy: Expected rate hold and dovish outlook (48 bps cuts by year-end) pressure GBP. UK CPI at 3.4% YoY (vs. 2% target) supports caution.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish stance supports DXY at 98.90.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions and potential US involvement boost USD safe-haven flows, capping GBP/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and July 9 deadline weigh on GBP sentiment.
Trend: Bullish, near three-year highs. Positive oscillators suggest consolidation.
Resistance: 1.3460, then 1.3730 (August 2025 forecast high) and 1.3860 (LongForecast September target).
Support: 1.3400, then 1.3350 and 1.3300.
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3350 if BoE is dovish. Hawkish BoE could lift to 1.3730; USD strength may push to 1.3300.
Market Sentiment: X posts show GBP/USD at 1.3410, with focus on BoE decision. LongForecast sees 1.3650 by June’s end.
Catalysts: BoE decision, ECB speeches, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6470, slightly lower amid risk-off sentiment and USD strength.
Middle East Tensions: Israel-Iran conflict and potential US strikes dampen risk appetite, pressuring AUD. Iran’s ceasefire requests via Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia offer limited support.
Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) caps AUD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause limits AUD/USD upside.
Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD, but Trump’s tariffs add uncertainty.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) caps AUD gains.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI above 50, but below 9-day EMA signals weakening momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6552 (seven-month high) and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6450 (channel lower boundary), then 0.6431 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6431 if USD strength persists. Dovish central bank signals could lift to 0.6552; ceasefire progress may drive 0.6687.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6470, with limited upside. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: Australian labor data, ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
USD/JPY trades at 145.10, steady near monthly highs, supported by USD strength post-Fed’s hawkish pause.
BoJ Policy: Reduced bets for a 2025 rate hike (delayed to Q1 2026) weaken JPY.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions and potential US strikes revive JPY safe-haven demand, capping USD/JPY.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish outlook (two cuts by 2025) supports DXY at 98.90.
Trade Policy: Failed US-Japan trade talks and Trump’s 25% tariffs on Japanese vehicles (July 9 deadline) pressure JPY.
Japanese Economy: Weak Machinery Orders (-9.1% in April) and Reuters Tankan poll signal caution, undermining JPY.
Trend: Bullish, post-145.00 breakout. Positive oscillators suggest upside potential.
Resistance: 145.45 (monthly high), then 146.00 and 146.25-146.30 (May 29 peak).
Support: 144.50-144.45, then 144.00 and 143.55-143.50.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 145.45 if USD strength persists. Dovish central bank signals could push to 144.00; escalation may drive 143.50.
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 145.10, with bullish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
On June 19, 2025, markets digest the Fed’s hawkish pause, with gold ($3,370.20) and silver ($36.75) supported by Middle East tensions but capped by USD strength (DXY at 98.90). EUR/USD (1.1465), GBP/USD (1.3410), and AUD/USD (0.6470) face USD pressure, while USD/JPY (145.10) and USD/CHF (0.8210) gain. USD/CAD (1.3650) softens, and WTI ($76.40) holds firm. SNB’s expected rate cut, ECB speeches, BoE’s decision, and Israel-Iran developments drive volatility, with Trump’s tariffs adding uncertainty.
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On June 18, 2025, markets are cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, expected to hold rates at 4.25%-4.50%. Escalating Israel-Iran tensions, now in their sixth day, with Trump demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” boost safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD) flatlines below $3,400 at $3,378.94, supported by geopolitical risks and Fed rate-cut bets (80% for September). Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates above $37.00 at $37.15. EUR/USD holds near 1.1500, lifted by ECB hawkishness, while GBP/USD steadies at 1.3400 awaiting UK CPI. AUD/USD rebounds to 0.6480 despite risk-off sentiment, and USD/JPY tests 144.50 amid JPY weakness post-BoJ’s steady 0.5% rate. USD/CAD edges lower to 1.3660. Weak US Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) reaffirm economic softening. Key catalysts include FOMC’s “dot plot,” UK CPI, Australian labor data, and Middle East developments, with Trump’s tariff threats (pharma sector next) adding volatility. Posts on X show DXY at 98.73, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,378.94, flat below $3,400, as markets await the FOMC decision.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict, with Trump’s call for Iran’s surrender, fuels safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) reinforce 80% Fed rate-cut odds for September, supporting gold.
FOMC Outlook: Expected rate hold at 4.25%-4.50%, with focus on Powell’s comments and the “dot plot” for rate-cut signals.
Trade Policy: Trump’s looming pharma tariffs and July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs add uncertainty, bolstering gold.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish stance aids non-yielding gold, despite USD strength (DXY at 98.73).
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying.
Resistance: $3,400, then $3,434-$3,435 and $3,451-$3,452 (multi-week high).
Support: $3,340-$3,335 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,340 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish signals could lift to $3,451; escalation may drive $3,500.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,378.94, with cautious optimism. LongForecast sees $3,600 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, UK CPI, Middle East developments.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $37.15, consolidating above $37.00, near its highest level since February 2012.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions limit silver’s downside.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) bolster Fed rate-cut bets (80%), supporting silver.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: Retail Sales at 6.4% YoY support industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.
Technical Factors: Overbought RSI suggests caution, but bullish flag breakout supports upside.
Trend: Bullish, post-descending trend channel breakout. Slightly overbought RSI warrants caution.
Resistance: $37.50 (February 2012 high), then $38.00 and $38.50-$38.55.
Support: $36.90-$36.85 (channel resistance breakpoint), then $36.40-$36.35 and $36.00.
Forecast: Silver may test $36.85 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to $38.00; escalation may drive $38.50.
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $37.15, with bullish bias. CoinCodex sees $37.79 in 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, UK CPI, Middle East developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1500, up slightly, supported by ECB hawkishness ahead of the FOMC decision.
ECB Policy: Hawkish ECB, with Lagarde signaling end of rate cuts, supports EUR.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) pressure USD, with DXY at 98.73.
FOMC Outlook: Expected rate hold, with 80% odds of a September cut, limits USD upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions boost USD safe-haven flows, capping EUR/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariff threats add volatility.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (multi-year peak).
Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1450 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.1630; escalation may push to 1.1435.
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1500, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, UK CPI, Middle East developments.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3400, steady near a three-year high, awaiting UK CPI and FOMC/BoE decisions.
UK Economic Data: April’s economic contraction boosts BoE rate-cut bets (three 25 bps cuts in 2025), pressuring GBP. UK CPI is critical.
BoE Policy: Dovish expectations for Thursday’s meeting cap GBP upside.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) support Fed rate-cut bets (80%), limiting GBP/USD downside.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions bolster USD safe-haven flows, capping GBP/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and G7 Summit uncertainties weigh on GBP.
Trend: Bullish, near three-year highs. Positive oscillators suggest consolidation.
Resistance: 1.3460, then 1.3730 (August 2025 forecast high) and 1.3860 (LongForecast September target).
Support: 1.3400, then 1.3350 and 1.3300.
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3350 if UK CPI softens. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.3730; hawkish BoE may drive 1.3860.
Market Sentiment: X posts show GBP/USD at 1.3400, with focus on central bank meetings. LongForecast sees 1.3650 by June’s end.
Catalysts: UK CPI, FOMC decision, BoE decision, Middle East developments.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6480, rebounding despite risk-off sentiment from Middle East tensions.
Middle East Tensions: Iran’s ceasefire requests via Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia boost risk sentiment, supporting AUD, but ongoing conflict limits gains.
Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) caps AUD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) pressure USD, supporting AUD/USD. FOMC decision is key.
Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD, but Trump’s tariffs add uncertainty.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) limits AUD upside.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI above 50 supports upside, but below 9-day EMA signals weakening momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6552 (seven-month high) and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6480 (channel lower boundary), then 0.6431 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6431 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to 0.6552; ceasefire progress may drive 0.6687.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6480, with upside potential. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, Australian labor data, Middle East developments.
USD/JPY trades at 144.50, testing monthly lows as JPY weakens post-BoJ’s steady 0.5% rate.
BoJ Policy: BoJ’s cautious stance, delaying rate hikes to Q1 2026, undermines JPY.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions bolster JPY safe-haven demand, limiting USD/JPY upside.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) pressure USD, with FOMC decision critical.
Trade Policy: Failed US-Japan trade talks at G7 Summit and Trump’s tariffs (July 9 deadline) weaken JPY.
Japanese Economy: Weak Machinery Orders (-9.1% in April) and Reuters Tankan poll signal caution, pressuring JPY.
Trend: Bullish, post-145.00 breakout. Positive oscillators suggest upside potential.
Resistance: 145.45 (monthly high), then 146.00 and 146.25-146.30 (May 29 peak).
Support: 144.50-144.45, then 144.00 and 143.55-143.50.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 145.45 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could push to 144.00; escalation may drive 143.50.
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 144.50, with bearish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, Middle East developments.
On June 18, 2025, markets are on edge awaiting the FOMC decision, with gold ($3,378.94) and silver ($37.15) steady, and WTI crude ($76.40) surging on Israel-Iran tensions. EUR/USD (1.1500), GBP/USD (1.3400), and AUD/USD (0.6480) hold firm, while USD/JPY (144.50) and USD/CAD (1.3660) soften. Weak US Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Trump’s tariff threats (pharma sector next) fuel volatility, with FOMC’s “dot plot,” UK CPI, and Middle East developments critical.
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On June 17, 2025, global markets remain volatile as Israel-Iran tensions escalate into a fifth day of conflict, with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, boosting WTI crude to $70.60. Gold (XAU/USD) retreats below $3,400 to $3,390, pressured by USD strength (DXY at 98.20) but supported by safe-haven demand. Silver (XAG/USD) holds at $36.20 amid similar dynamics. GBP/USD consolidates at 1.3570, awaiting UK CPI, Fed, and BoE decisions. AUD/USD rebounds to 0.6510 as ceasefire hopes ease tensions, while USD/JPY drops to 144.50 after the BoJ maintains rates at 0.5%. EUR/USD steadies at 1.1530, supported by ECB hawkishness. Key catalysts include US Retail Sales (forecast unavailable), FOMC and BoE meetings, UK CPI, and Middle East developments, with Trump’s tariff threats and trade talks adding uncertainty. Posts on X reflect bearish DXY sentiment near 98.20 and focus on Fed-driven volatility.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,390, down from $3,400, pressured by USD strength but supported by safe-haven demand.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict, including attacks on Iran’s uranium facility, bolsters gold’s safe-haven appeal.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI (0.1% MoM) and 68% Fed rate-cut odds lift gold. Retail Sales data is critical.
FOMC Outlook: Expected rate hold at 4.25%-4.50% keeps focus on Powell’s comments.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and G7 Summit tensions add uncertainty, supporting gold.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish stance aids non-yielding gold.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying.
Resistance: $3,400, then $3,434-$3,435 and $3,451-$3,452 (multi-week high).
Support: $3,340-$3,335 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,340 if Retail Sales are strong. Dovish FOMC could lift to $3,451; escalation may drive $3,500.
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight gold’s resilience at $3,390, with $3,600 possible by Q4 2025 per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.20, steady despite USD uptick, supported by geopolitical risks.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict limits silver’s downside.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) pressures silver, but softer PPI and Fed rate-cut bets (68%) provide support.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: Retail Sales at 6.4% YoY support industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish outlook lifts non-yielding silver.
Trend: Bullish, near 13-year highs. RSI above 50 supports upside.
Resistance: $36.89 (13-year high), then $37.00 and $37.79 (2025 forecast).
Support: $36.00, then $33.10 (50-day EMA) and $32.80.
Forecast: Silver may test $36.00 if Retail Sales are strong. Dovish FOMC could lift to $36.89; escalation may drive $37.00.
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $36.20, with $37.79 possible in 2025 per CoinCodex.
Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6510, rebounding as ceasefire hopes ease Middle East tensions.
Middle East Tensions: Iran’s ceasefire requests via Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia boost risk sentiment, supporting AUD.
Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) limits gains.
US Economic Data: Strong Retail Sales could strengthen USD, pressuring AUD/USD. FOMC decision is key.
Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism at G7 Summit and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) caps AUD upside.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI above 50 supports upside.
Resistance: 0.6552 (seven-month high), then 0.6687 and 0.6730 (channel upper boundary).
Support: 0.6506 (9-day EMA), then 0.6470 (channel lower boundary) and 0.6431 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6552 if ceasefire hopes grow. Strong Retail Sales could push to 0.6470; dovish FOMC may drive 0.6687.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6510, with upside potential. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Australian labor data, Middle East developments.
USD/JPY trades at 144.50, down after BoJ maintains rates at 0.5%, with focus on Governor Ueda’s presser.
BoJ Policy: BoJ’s unchanged 0.5% rate and bond taper plan (¥2T by Q1 2027) strengthen JPY. Ueda’s comments are critical.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict bolsters JPY safe-haven demand, pressuring USD/JPY.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI and Fed rate-cut bets (68%) cap gains.
Trade Policy: Failed US-Japan trade talks at G7 Summit and Trump’s tariffs weaken USD/JPY.
Japanese Economy: Inflation at 3.6% YoY supports BoJ hawkishness, bolstering JPY.
Trend: Neutral, within multi-week range. Positive oscillators suggest limited downside.
Resistance: 145.00, then 145.45 (monthly high) and 146.00.
Support: 144.50-144.45, then 144.00 and 143.55-143.50.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 144.00 if Ueda signals tightening. Dovish FOMC could push to 143.50; escalation may drive 142.75.
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 144.72, with bearish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: BoJ presser, US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1530, steady as ECB hawkishness balances USD strength.
ECB Policy: ECB’s hawkish signals (end of rate cuts nearing) support EUR, with de Guindos noting EUR/USD at 1.15 poses no inflation hurdle.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) bolsters USD, but Fed rate-cut bets (68%) limit EUR/USD downside.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions boost USD safe-haven flows, capping EUR/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and G7 Summit uncertainties add volatility.
Eurozone Economy: ECB’s 2% inflation target for 2025 supports EUR.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (multi-year peak).
Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1500 if Retail Sales are strong. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.1630; escalation may push to 1.1450.
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1511, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.
WTI crude trades at $70.60, extending gains amid Middle East tensions, with focus on US Retail Sales and API data.
Middle East Tensions: Israel’s strike on Iran’s broadcaster and Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply) fuel supply disruption fears, lifting WTI.
US Oil Inventories: EIA’s -3.644M barrel drop supports WTI; API data awaited.
US Economic Data: Strong Retail Sales could boost USD, pressuring WTI. FOMC’s demand signals are key.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats and stalled US-China/Japan trade talks could weaken demand, capping WTI upside.
OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd limits gains due to oversupply concerns.
Trend: Bullish, above $70.00. RSI near 60 suggests upside potential.
Resistance: $71.18, then $72.50 and $74.00 (five-month high).
Support: $70.00, then $66.00 and $62.70 (yearly low-day close).
Forecast: WTI may test $71.18 if tensions escalate. Strong Retail Sales could push to $66.00; Strait closure fears may drive $74.00.
Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI bullishness, with $80 possible if tensions persist. LongForecast sees $73.52 by June.
Catalysts: US Retail Sales, API data, FOMC decision, Middle East developments, OPEC+ updates.
On June 17, 2025, Israel-Iran tensions, with Iran’s Strait of Hormuz threat, drive WTI crude ($70.60) and gold ($3,390), while silver ($36.20) holds steady. GBP/USD (1.3570) awaits UK CPI and central bank decisions, AUD/USD (0.6510) rebounds on ceasefire hopes, and USD/JPY (144.50) dips post-BoJ. EUR/USD (1.1530) remains resilient, with DXY (98.20) bearish. US Retail Sales, FOMC, BoE, and Middle East developments are key, with Trump’s tariffs fueling volatility.
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On June 16, 2025, global markets are dominated by escalating Israel-Iran tensions, with Iran launching missile barrages on Israel, boosting safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates at $3,425 after hitting a two-month high, supported by Middle East risks and Fed rate-cut bets (68% for September). Silver (XAG/USD) dips to $36.20, pressured by USD recovery (DXY at 98.25) but supported by geopolitical tensions. EUR/USD softens to 1.1530, despite ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stating that EUR/USD at 1.15 poses no obstacle to the ECB’s 2% inflation target. USD/JPY rises to 144.75, limited by JPY safe-haven demand and BoJ tightening expectations. AUD/USD holds at 0.6460, while USD/CAD rebounds to 1.3600 as WTI crude corrects to $71.90. Key catalysts include the FOMC and BoJ decisions, G7 Summit trade talks, and Middle East developments, with Trump’s tariff threats adding uncertainty.
Current Price and Context
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,425, consolidating near a two-month high of $3,452-$3,453, driven by geopolitical risks.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Iran’s missile barrages on Israel and Israel’s intensified strikes on Iran fuel safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI (0.1% MoM) and 68% Fed rate-cut odds bolster gold. FOMC decision is key.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats (50% on appliances) add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s tariff policy and $4T bill fuel volatility, aiding gold.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish outlook supports non-yielding gold, while ECB’s hawkish stance limits USD upside.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, above $3,400 with an ascending trend channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying.
Resistance: $3,452-$3,453, then $3,500 (April peak).
Support: $3,400, then $3,360 (trend-channel lower boundary).
Forecast: Gold may test $3,452 if tensions escalate. Hawkish FOMC could push to $3,400; further strikes may drive $3,500.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight gold at $3,425, with $3,600 possible by Q4 2025 per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.20, down slightly, pressured by USD recovery but supported by geopolitical risks.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict escalation boosts safe-haven demand, limiting silver’s downside.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) bolsters USD, pressuring silver. Softer PPI (0.1% MoM) and Fed rate-cut bets (68%) provide support.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: Trade surplus (CNY743.56B) supports industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish outlook lifts non-yielding silver.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, near 13-year highs. RSI above 50 supports upside.
Resistance: $36.89 (13-year high), then $37.00 and $37.79 (2025 forecast).
Support: $36.00, then $33.10 (50-day EMA) and $32.80.
Forecast: Silver may test $36.00 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to $36.89; escalation may drive $37.00.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $36.20, with $37.79 possible in 2025 per CoinCodex.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
EUR/USD trades at 1.1530, down slightly below mid-1.1500s, amid a modest USD uptick and anticipation for the FOMC decision.
Key Drivers
ECB Policy: ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that EUR/USD at 1.15 is “no big obstacle” to the 2% inflation target, with balanced risks and limited undershooting concerns. Hawkish ECB signals (nearing end of rate cuts) support EUR.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Consumer Sentiment (60.5 vs. 53.5 expected) supports USD, but 68% Fed rate-cut odds for September limit gains. FOMC’s Wednesday decision is critical.
Geopolitical Risks: Iran’s missile attacks on Israel and ongoing strikes boost safe-haven USD flows, pressuring EUR/USD.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats (50% on steel derivatives) and G7 Summit talks with Canada add USD uncertainty, supporting EUR/USD.
Eurozone Economy: ECB projects 2% inflation in 2025, falling to 1.6% in 2026, with 0.9% GDP growth, reinforcing hawkish stance.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, within an ascending channel. Positive daily oscillators favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (multi-year peak).
Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430 (trend-channel support).
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1500 if FOMC signals no rate cuts. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.1630; escalation in Middle East may push to 1.1450.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1511, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
USD/JPY trades at 144.75, up slightly, but capped by JPY safe-haven demand and BoJ expectations.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Iran’s missile attacks and Israel’s strikes bolster JPY safe-haven status, limiting USD/JPY upside.
Monetary Policy: BoJ’s expected steady rate (0.5%) and potential JGB purchase reduction signal tightening, supporting JPY. Fed’s 68% rate-cut odds weaken USD.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI (0.1% MoM) caps gains. FOMC decision is critical.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats add USD uncertainty, aiding JPY.
Japanese Economy: Inflation at 3.6% YoY supports BoJ hawkishness, bolstering JPY.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Neutral, within a multi-week range. Oscillators suggest limited upside.
Resistance: 144.75, then 145.00 and 145.45 (monthly high).
Support: 144.00, then 143.55-143.50 and 142.80-142.75.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 145.00 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could push to 143.50; escalation may drive 142.75.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 144.50, with bearish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: BoJ decision, FOMC decision, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
AUD/USD trades at 0.6460, steady despite risk-off sentiment from Middle East tensions.
Key Drivers
Middle East Tensions: Iran-Israel conflict dampens risk appetite, pressuring AUD.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s trade deal awaits Xi’s approval, but 50% tariffs and G7 Summit talks with Canada impact AUD.
Australian Data: Consumer Inflation Expectations at 5% signal RBA caution, but weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) limits AUD gains.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) bolsters USD, but Fed rate-cut bets (68%) cap AUD downside. FOMC decision is key.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) caps AUD upside.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish, below ascending channel. RSI near 50 suggests neutral momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6538 and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6423 (50-day EMA), then 0.5914 (March 2020 low).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6423 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to 0.6495; trade deal progress may drive 0.6538.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6452, with downside risks. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
WTI crude trades at $71.90, down from $74.74, but supported by Middle East supply disruption fears.
Key Drivers
Middle East Tensions: Iran’s missile attacks and Israel’s strikes raise supply concerns, supporting WTI.
US Oil Inventories: EIA’s -3.644M barrel drop (vs. +100K expected) bolsters WTI.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats and trade deal uncertainty could drag WTI if demand weakens.
OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd caps gains due to oversupply fears.
US Economic Data: FOMC decision could signal demand trends, impacting WTI.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, above $70.00. RSI near 60 suggests upside potential.
Resistance: $72.50, then $74.00 (five-month high) and $76.00.
Support: $70.00, then $66.00 and $63.20-$63.30.
Forecast: WTI may test $72.50 if tensions persist. Hawkish FOMC could push to $66.00; further escalation may drive $74.00.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI at $71.90, with $80 possible if tensions escalate per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments, OPEC+ updates.
On June 16, 2025, Iran-Israel tensions drive gold ($3,425) and silver ($36.20), while WTI crude ($71.90) corrects but holds firm. EUR/USD (1.1530) softens, USD/JPY (144.75) rises, AUD/USD (0.6460) steadies, and USD/CAD (1.3600) rebounds. ECB’s de Guindos sees EUR/USD at 1.15 as no inflation hurdle, while FOMC and BoJ decisions, G7 Summit trade talks, and Middle East developments are key. Trump’s tariff threats add volatility.
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On June 13, 2025, global markets are gripped by heightened geopolitical tensions following Israel’s preemptive airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, boosting safe-haven assets and oil prices. Gold (XAU/USD) surges to $3,428, nearing five-month highs, driven by Middle East risks and Fed rate-cut bets (68% for September). Silver (XAG/USD) climbs to $36.50, supported by similar dynamics. WTI crude soars to $72.05, a four-month high, as fears of supply disruptions mount. The Japanese Yen strengthens, pushing USD/JPY to 143.00, fueled by safe-haven demand and BoJ tightening expectations. AUD/USD falls to 0.6460, hit by risk-off sentiment, while EUR/USD retreats to 1.1530 amid USD safe-haven flows. EUR/JPY holds at 165.80, balancing JPY strength and ECB hawkishness. Key catalysts include US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (forecast unavailable), US-China trade updates, and Middle East developments, with Trump’s tariff threats and Iran nuclear talks adding volatility.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,428, up 1.26%, nearing five-month highs after Israel’s airstrikes on Iran.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.50, up from $36.30, supported by geopolitical risks and USD weakness.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6460, down 1%, testing the 50-day EMA amid risk-off sentiment from Middle East tensions.
USD/JPY trades at 143.00, down from 144.00, as JPY gains on safe-haven demand despite USD recovery.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1530, down from 1.1631, as USD gains safe-haven flows amid Middle East tensions.
WTI crude trades at $72.05, up 6.20%, hitting a four-month high after Israel’s airstrikes on Iran.
On June 13, 2025, Israel’s airstrikes on Iran drive WTI crude ($72.05), gold ($3,428), and silver ($36.50) higher, while AUD/USD (0.6460) falls amid risk-off sentiment. USD/JPY (143.00) drops on JPY strength, EUR/USD (1.1530) softens, and EUR/JPY (165.80) holds steady. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, US-China trade updates, and Middle East developments are critical, with Trump’s tariff threats and Iran nuclear talks (set for Sunday) fueling volatility.
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On June 12, 2025, global markets are navigating a complex landscape of escalating Middle East tensions, US-China trade deal developments, and heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September (68% probability). EUR/JPY pulls back to 165.80 from an eight-month high, reflecting USD weakness (DXY at 98.30) and safe-haven JPY demand. AUD/USD tests 0.6500, declining amid Israel-Iran tensions despite softer US CPI (2.4% YoY vs. 2.5% expected). EUR/USD surges to 1.1530, a two-month high, driven by USD selling and ECB hawkishness. USD/JPY drops below 144.00, pressured by JPY strength and Fed rate-cut bets. Gold (XAU/USD) holds near $3,340, while silver (XAG/USD) rises to $36.30, both supported by geopolitical risks. WTI crude jumps to $67.00, fueled by Middle East tensions and an EIA stockpile drop (-3.644M barrels). Key catalysts include US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, and US-China trade updates, with tariff uncertainties and Iran nuclear talks in focus.
Current Price and Context
EUR/JPY trades at 165.80, pulling back from an eight-month high of 166.43, driven by JPY safe-haven demand and USD weakness.
Key Drivers
Technical Outlook
Sentiment and Catalysts
Current Price and Context
AUD/USD trades at 0.6500, testing support amid Middle East tensions, despite USD weakness from softer CPI.
Key Drivers
Middle East Tensions: Israel-Iran escalation and US evacuation plans dampen risk sentiment, pressuring risk-sensitive AUD.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s trade deal (pending Xi’s approval) and China’s rare-earth restrictions impact AUD, given Australia’s trade ties with China (CNY743.56B surplus).
Australian Data: Consumer Inflation Expectations at 5% (vs. 4.1% prior) signal RBA caution, but trade balance surplus (5,413M vs. 6,100M expected) limits AUD gains.
US Economic Data: Softer CPI (2.4% YoY) boosts Fed rate-cut odds (68% for September), weakening USD and supporting AUD. PPI data is key.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate, projected 3.20% by 2027) caps AUD upside.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish bias weakening, testing channel’s lower boundary. RSI above 50 but near 9-day EMA (0.6492).
Resistance: 0.6538 (seven-month high), then 0.6687 (eight-month high) and 0.6720 (channel’s upper boundary).
Support: 0.6492 (9-day EMA), then 0.6490 (channel’s lower boundary) and 0.6419 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may hold 0.6490 if CPI-driven USD weakness persists. Middle East escalation could push to 0.6419; trade deal approval may drive 0.6538.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6492, with downside risk from geopolitical tensions. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, US-China trade updates, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
EUR/USD trades at 1.1530, a two-month high, driven by USD selling and ECB hawkishness.
Key Drivers
US Economic Data: Softer CPI (2.4% YoY vs. 2.5% expected) and 68% Fed rate-cut odds for September weaken USD, boosting EUR/USD. PPI data awaited.
ECB Policy: Hawkish signals (end of rate cuts nearing) support EUR, contrasting with Fed’s dovish outlook.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats (unilateral rates in two weeks) add USD uncertainty, supporting EUR/USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions indirectly bolster EUR as a safe-haven relative to USD.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s tariff policy and $4T bill fuel USD volatility, aiding EUR/USD.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, above 1.15. RSI nearing overbought levels suggests caution.
Resistance: 1.1530 (current high), then 1.1550 and 1.1600.
Support: 1.1450, then 1.1400 and 1.1300.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1550 if PPI is soft. Strong PPI could push to 1.1450; trade uncertainty may drive 1.1600.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1511, with bullish momentum. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, US-China trade updates, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
USD/JPY trades near 144.00, down 0.35%, pressured by JPY safe-haven demand and USD weakness.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions and US evacuations in Iraq bolster JPY, pressuring USD/JPY.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats and China’s rare-earth restrictions add USD uncertainty, supporting JPY.
Monetary Policy: BoJ’s tightening expectations (3.6% inflation) contrast with Fed’s 68% rate-cut odds for September, weakening USD/JPY.
US Economic Data: Softer CPI (2.4% YoY) and falling Treasury yields (2-year at 4.01%) drag USD lower. PPI data is critical.
Japanese Economy: Stable GDP (0% Q1) and inflation (3.6% YoY) support JPY.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish, below 144.55-144.50. Negative oscillators favor downside.
Resistance: 144.55 (Asian session peak), then 145.00 and 145.45 (two-week high).
Support: 143.70 (Asian session low), then 143.00 and 142.62-142.60.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 143.70 if PPI is strong. Weak PPI could push to 143.00; Middle East escalation may drive 142.60.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 143.96, with bearish momentum. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, US-China trade updates, Middle East developments, BoJ signals.
Current Price and Context
Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,340, supported by geopolitical risks and USD weakness.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions and US evacuations in Iraq drive safe-haven demand, supporting gold.
US Economic Data: Softer CPI (2.4% YoY) and 68% Fed rate-cut odds weaken USD, boosting gold. PPI data is key.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T bill and tariff policy fuel volatility, aiding gold.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish outlook contrasts with ECB/BoJ tightening, supporting non-yielding gold.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, near weekly highs. RSI above 50 supports upside.
Resistance: $3,352-$3,353, then $3,377-$3,378 and $3,400.
Support: $3,323-$3,322, then $3,300 and $3,288-$3,287 (200-period SMA).
Forecast: Gold may test $3,352 if PPI is soft. Strong PPI could push to $3,300; Middle East escalation may drive $3,400.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts suggest gold resilience at $3,340, with $3,500 possible if risks escalate. Long Forecast projects $3,600 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, US-China trade updates, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
WTI crude trades at $67.00, near two-month highs, driven by Middle East tensions and an EIA stockpile decline.
Key Drivers
Middle East Tensions: Israel-Iran escalation and US evacuations in Iraq raise supply concerns, boosting WTI.
US Oil Inventories: EIA reports a -3.644M barrel drop, tighter than the +100K expected, supporting WTI.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s “done” deal awaits confirmation, but tariff uncertainty could drag WTI if demand falters.
OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd caps gains due to oversupply fears.
US Economic Data: PPI could signal demand trends, impacting WTI.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, above $63.50. RSI near 60 suggests further upside.
Resistance: $67.50, then $68.00 and $70.00.
Support: $66.00, then $63.20-$63.30 and $60.00.
Forecast: WTI may test $67.50 if tensions persist. Strong PPI could push to $63.20; trade deal approval may drive $68.00.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI at $67.00, with $70 possible by Q4 2025 per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, US-China trade updates, Middle East developments, OPEC+ updates.
On June 12, 2025, markets are driven by Middle East tensions, lifting WTI crude ($67.00), gold ($3,340), and silver ($36.30), while pressuring AUD/USD (0.6500). EUR/JPY (165.80) pulls back, EUR/USD (1.1530) surges, and USD/JPY (144.00) dips amid USD weakness (DXY at 98.30). US PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, and US-China trade updates are critical, with Israel-Iran risks and Fed rate-cut bets (68% for September) adding volatility.
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On June 11, 2025, global markets are shaped by a mix of trade optimism and uncertainty following a US-China framework agreement in London, alongside persistent geopolitical risks and anticipation for US CPI data (2.5% YoY expected). Gold (XAU/USD) climbs to $3,340, supported by safe-haven demand from Trump’s upheld tariffs and Russia-Ukraine tensions, despite a firmer USD (DXY at 99.10). Silver (XAG/USD) holds near $36.60, close to a 13-year high, but faces pressure from easing trade tensions. AUD/USD dips to 0.6510, despite US-China trade progress, while USD/JPY rises above 145.00, driven by USD strength and trade optimism weakening JPY. GBP/USD softens to 1.3475 after a weaker UK jobs report (4.6% unemployment). WTI crude gains to $63.80, bolstered by trade deal hopes and an unexpected API stockpile drop (-370K barrels). Key catalysts include US CPI, EIA crude inventories, and ongoing tariff developments, with geopolitical risks and Fed policy expectations in focus.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,340, climbing toward a weekly high, driven by safe-haven demand despite trade optimism and USD strength.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.60, near a 13-year high of $36.89, but faces pressure from easing trade tensions.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6510, down slightly despite US-China trade progress, testing support near 0.6500.
USD/JPY trades above 145.00, supported by USD strength and trade optimism weakening JPY’s safe-haven status.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3475, down after a weaker UK jobs report, ahead of US CPI data.
WTI crude trades at $63.80, up slightly, supported by US-China trade optimism and an API stockpile decline.
On June 11, 2025, markets are driven by a US-China trade framework agreement, lifting WTI crude ($63.80) and pressuring safe-haven gold ($3,340) and silver ($36.60). AUD/USD (0.6510) dips despite trade optimism, USD/JPY (145.00) rises on JPY weakness, and GBP/USD (1.3475) softens post-UK jobs data. US CPI (2.5% YoY expected), EIA crude inventories, and tariff developments are key, with Russia-Ukraine tensions and Fed policy expectations adding volatility.
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On June 10, 2025, global markets are buoyed by optimism from ongoing US-China trade talks in London, extending into a second day, which boosts risk sentiment and pressures safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD) drops to $3,300, driven by modest USD strength (DXY at 99.00) and reduced safe-haven demand, though Fed rate-cut bets (60% for September) and geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East) limit losses. AUD/USD rises to 0.6520, supported by China’s trade surplus (CNY743.56B) and trade optimism, while AUD/JPY climbs to 94.50 amid JPY weakness. USD/CAD holds above 1.3700, supported by USD gains but capped by rising WTI crude ($64.65) bolstering CAD. GBP/USD hovers at 1.3540, and EUR/GBP consolidates above 0.8400 ahead of UK jobs data (4.6% unemployment expected). Silver (XAG/USD) remains steady at $34.50. Key catalysts include US CPI (2.5% YoY expected), UK employment, and trade talk outcomes, with US fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions adding volatility.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,300, down to a one-week low, pressured by USD strength and US-China trade optimism.
US-China Trade Talks: Second-day London meeting, described as “good” by US Treasury Secretary Bessent, reduces safe-haven demand, capping gold upside.
USD Strength: DXY at 99.00 gains from strong NFP (139K vs. 130K) and reduced Fed rate-cut odds, pressuring gold.
Federal Reserve Policy: 60% chance of a September rate cut (CME FedWatch) and US fiscal concerns (Trump’s $4T bill) limit USD gains, supporting gold.
Geopolitical Risks: Russia’s airstrike on Ukraine (500 drones/missiles) and Middle East tensions sustain safe-haven flows, capping losses.
US Inflation Data: Upcoming CPI (2.5% YoY expected) could sway Fed rate-cut expectations, impacting gold.
Trend: Bearish near-term, below 200-hour SMA. Negative hourly oscillators suggest further downside.
Resistance: $3,333-$3,334 (100-hour SMA), then $3,352-$3,353 and $3,377-$3,378.
Support: $3,294-$3,293 (overnight low), then $3,246-$3,245 (May 29 low) and $3,200.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,294 if trade talks progress. Strong CPI (>2.5%) could push to $3,200; weak CPI (<2.3%) may drive $3,352.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,300-$3,392, with $3,500 possible if risks escalate. Long Forecast projects $3,600 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, UK jobs data, US-China trade talks, geopolitical developments.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $34.50, stable as safe-haven demand balances USD correction.
Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical tensions (Ukraine-Russia, Middle East) support silver, offset by US-China trade optimism.
US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) supports USD, but fiscal concerns and rate-cut bets limit gains, aiding silver.
China’s Economy: Caixin Services PMI at 51.1 boosts industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%, PPI -3.3%) caps upside.
Monetary Policy: Fed rate-cut expectations and Trump’s pressure on Powell bolster non-yielding assets.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s budget bill and “Sell America” trend add uncertainty, supporting silver.
Trend: Neutral-to-bullish, in a rectangular pattern. RSI above 50 suggests upside potential.
Resistance: $34.80 (rectangle’s upper boundary), then $34.90 (seven-week high) and $35.80 (March high).
Support: $33.10 (50-day EMA), then $32.80 (rectangle’s lower boundary) and $32.50 (six-week low).
Forecast: Silver may test $34.80 if tensions persist. Strong trade deal could push to $32.80; weak deal may drive $35.00.
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight silver’s resilience at $34.00+, with $37.79 possible in 2025 per CoinCodex.
Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, geopolitical risks.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6520, up for the second day, driven by US-China trade optimism and China’s trade surplus.
US-China Trade Talks: London meeting optimism, with focus on technology and rare earths, supports AUD as a China-proxy currency.
China’s Economy: Trade surplus at CNY743.56B and Services PMI at 51.1 bolster AUD, despite deflation (CPI -0.1%, PPI -3.3%).
Australian Data: Westpac Consumer Confidence up 0.5% MoM in June (vs. 2.2% prior) reflects trade uncertainty, limiting AUD gains.
US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) supports USD, with CPI (2.5% YoY expected) as a key focus.
RBA Policy: Dovish May minutes favor a 25 bps cut, capping AUD upside.
Trend: Bullish, within an ascending channel. RSI above 50 and above 9-day EMA (0.6489) support upside.
Resistance: 0.6538 (seven-month high), then 0.6687 (eight-month high) and 0.6690 (channel’s upper boundary).
Support: 0.6489 (9-day EMA), then 0.6480 (channel’s lower boundary) and 0.6412 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6538 if trade talks succeed. Strong CPI could push to 0.6412; weak CPI may drive 0.6687.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD strength at 64.66 US cents, with 0.67 possible per CoinCodex by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, UK jobs data, US-China trade talks, Chinese economic data.
AUD/JPY trades near 94.50, up for the fourth day, driven by JPY weakness and trade optimism.
BoJ Policy: Ueda’s openness to rate hikes if inflation nears 2% contrasts with PM Ishiba’s borrowing cost concerns, weakening JPY.
US-China Trade Talks: Optimism supports AUD, with Australia benefiting from China’s trade surplus (CNY743.56B).
Australian Data: Westpac Consumer Confidence up 0.5% MoM supports AUD, though trade uncertainty lingers.
Geopolitical Risks: Russia-Ukraine and Middle East tensions favor risk-sensitive AUD over safe-haven JPY.
China’s Economy: Trade surplus and Services PMI (51.1) strengthen AUD.
Trend: Bullish, with RSI nearing overbought levels.
Resistance: 94.50, then 95.00 and 95.50.
Support: 93.50, then 93.00 and 92.50.
Forecast: AUD/JPY may test 95.00 if trade talks progress. BoJ hawkish signals could push to 93.50.
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight AUD/JPY’s rally, with 95.00 possible if JPY weakens further.
Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, UK jobs data, US-China trade talks, BoJ signals.
USD/CAD trades at 1.3700, up for the third day, supported by USD strength but capped by rising oil prices and trade optimism.
US-China Trade Talks: Easing tensions reduce US-Canada tariff fears, supporting CAD. Bessent’s “good meeting” boosts optimism.
Oil Prices: WTI at $64.65 supports commodity-linked CAD, Canada’s key crude exporter to the US.
US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) bolsters USD, with CPI (2.5% YoY expected) critical.
BoC Policy: Rates held at 2.75% with cautious guidance support CAD.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T bill pressures USD, aiding CAD.
Trend: Neutral-to-bullish, above 1.3700. RSI near 50 reflects balanced momentum.
Resistance: 1.3750, then 1.3800.
Support: 1.3635 (eight-month low), then 1.3600.
Forecast: USD/CAD may test 1.3750 if CPI is strong. Trade deal progress could push to 1.3600.
Market Sentiment: X posts show CAD resilience, with 1.35 possible by Q3 2025 per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, UK jobs data, US-China trade talks, US-Canada tariff updates.
WTI crude trades at $64.65, up to a seven-week high, driven by US-China trade optimism and geopolitical risks.
US-China Trade Talks: London meeting fuels demand expectations, supporting WTI. Trump’s positive comments add tailwinds.
Geopolitical Risks: Russia-Ukraine (Kyiv/Odesa attacks) and Middle East tensions limit downside.
OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd caps gains due to oversupply fears.
US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) signals demand resilience, with CPI (2.5% YoY) as a focus.
USD Strength: DXY at 99.00 limits WTI upside.
Trend: Bullish, above $63.20-$63.30 breakout. RSI near 55 suggests further upside.
Resistance: $65.00, then $66.00.
Support: $63.20-$63.30, then $60.00.
Forecast: WTI may test $65.00 if trade talks succeed. Oversupply fears could push to $60.00.
Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI at $65.67, with $70 possible by Q4 2025 per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, UK jobs data, US-China trade talks, OPEC+ updates.
On June 10, 2025, markets are energized by US-China trade talks in London, lifting AUD/USD (0.6520), AUD/JPY (94.50), and WTI crude ($64.65) while pressuring gold ($3,300) and silver ($34.50). USD/CAD (1.3700) gains on USD strength, GBP/USD (1.3540) awaits UK jobs data, and EUR/GBP (0.8400) consolidates. US CPI (2.5% YoY expected), UK employment (4.6% unemployment expected), and trade talk outcomes are key, with Russia-Ukraine escalation and US fiscal concerns adding volatility.
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On June 9, 2025, global markets are driven by optimism over US-China trade talks in London, mixed Chinese economic data, and a USD pullback (DXY at 99.00) despite strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data (139K vs. 130K expected). The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD at 0.6510) rises as China’s Trade Surplus expands to CNY743.56B, though deflation persists (CPI -0.1% YoY, PPI -3.3% YoY). EUR/USD holds at 1.1400, GBP/USD edges up to 1.3530, and USD/CAD dips to 1.3680 amid trade deal hopes. NZD/USD gains to 0.6035, supported by China’s data, while USD/JPY softens to 143.20 on Japan’s revised Q1 GDP (0% vs. -0.2% expected). WTI crude slides to $63.80, cushioned by trade optimism. Silver (XAG/USD) and gold (XAU/USD) remain steady at $34.50 and $3,355, respectively. Key catalysts include US-China trade negotiations, upcoming Chinese CPI/PPI, and Eurozone economic data, with geopolitical tensions and US fiscal concerns in focus.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,355, steady as USD corrects lower (DXY at 99.00) and trade talk optimism reduces safe-haven demand.
US-China Trade Talks: Optimism from the London meeting reduces safe-haven flows, capping gold upside.
US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) dampens Fed rate-cut hopes, supporting USD and pressuring gold. Fiscal concerns (Trump’s $4T bill) sustain uncertainty.
Geopolitical Risks: Ukraine-Russia escalation (Kharkiv attacks) and Middle East tensions support gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Monetary Policy: Fed rate-cut bets (70% for two cuts) and Trump’s pressure on Powell limit USD gains, aiding gold.
China’s Economy: Deflationary pressures (CPI -0.1%, PPI -3.3%) signal weak demand, impacting gold marginally.
Trend: Bullish, above $3,324-$3,326. RSI in positive territory supports upside.
Resistance: $3,380, then $3,400 (multi-week high). A breakout could target $3,500 (April peak).
Support: $3,326-$3,324, then $3,300 and $3,286-$3,285.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,380 if geopolitical tensions escalate. Strong trade deal progress could push to $3,300; weak deal may drive $3,400.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold steady at $3,354-$3,392, with $3,500 possible. Long Forecast projects $3,600 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, geopolitical risks.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $34.50, stable as safe-haven demand balances USD correction.
Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical tensions (Ukraine-Russia, Middle East) support silver, offset by US-China trade optimism.
US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) supports USD, but fiscal concerns and rate-cut bets limit gains, aiding silver.
China’s Economy: Caixin Services PMI at 51.1 boosts industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%, PPI -3.3%) caps upside.
Monetary Policy: Fed rate-cut expectations and Trump’s pressure on Powell bolster non-yielding assets.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s budget bill and “Sell America” trend add uncertainty, supporting silver.
Trend: Neutral-to-bullish, in a rectangular pattern. RSI above 50 suggests upside potential.
Resistance: $34.80 (rectangle’s upper boundary), then $34.90 (seven-week high) and $35.80 (March high).
Support: $33.10 (50-day EMA), then $32.80 (rectangle’s lower boundary) and $32.50 (six-week low).
Forecast: Silver may test $34.80 if tensions persist. Strong trade deal could push to $32.80; weak deal may drive $35.00.
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight silver’s resilience at $34.00+, with $37.79 possible in 2025 per CoinCodex.
Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, geopolitical risks.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6510, up on Monday, buoyed by China’s expanding Trade Surplus (CNY743.56B) despite deflationary pressures.
China’s Economic Data: Trade Surplus grew to CNY743.56B in May (from CNY689.99B), with exports up 6.3% YoY but imports down 2.1% YoY. CPI fell 0.1% YoY (vs. -0.2% expected), and PPI dropped 3.3% YoY, signaling deflationary pressures but supporting AUD via trade ties.
US-China Trade Talks: Scheduled London meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent boosts risk sentiment, aiding AUD as a China-proxy currency.
US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K vs. 130K expected) supports USD, but fiscal concerns and Fed rate-cut bets (70% for two 25 bps cuts in 2025) limit gains.
RBA Policy: Dovish May minutes favor a 25 bps cut, with Sarah Hunter warning of US tariff impacts, capping AUD upside.
Market Sentiment: Improved risk tone from US-China talks supports commodity currencies like AUD.
Trend: Bullish, within an ascending channel. RSI above 50 and above 9-day EMA (0.6481) support upside momentum.
Resistance: 0.6538 (seven-month high), then 0.6680 (channel’s upper boundary) and 0.6687 (eight-month high).
Support: 0.6481 (9-day EMA), then 0.6480 (channel’s lower boundary) and 0.6408 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6538 if trade talks progress. Weak Chinese CPI/PPI could push to 0.6408; strong trade deal signals may drive 0.6680.
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight AUD strength at 64.66 US cents, with upside if trade talks succeed. CoinCodex forecasts 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, US fiscal developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1400, steady as USD holds ground post-NFP and markets eye US-China trade talks.
ECB Policy: ECB’s 25 bps cut to 2% and Lagarde’s signal of nearing the easing cycle end pressure EUR. Stournaras warns of US tariff risks.
US Economic Data: NFP at 139K and steady 4.2% unemployment rate reduce Fed rate-cut odds, supporting USD.
US-China Trade Talks: London meeting optimism supports USD, but deeper issues remain unresolved.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T bill and “Sell America” trend cap USD gains, aiding EUR/USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Ukraine-Russia escalation adds EUR safe-haven appeal.
Trend: Neutral, around 1.1400. RSI near 50 reflects balanced momentum.
Resistance: 1.1450, then 1.1500 and 1.1575 (April 21 high).
Support: 1.1380 (23.6% Fibonacci), then 1.1320-1.1330 (100/200-period SMA) and 1.1260 (38.2% Fibonacci).
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1450 if trade talks falter. Strong deal progress could push to 1.1320.
Market Sentiment: X posts suggest EUR/USD caution, with 1.15 possible if USD weakens. CoinCodex forecasts 1.14 average for 2025.
Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, US fiscal developments.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3530-1.3535, up slightly as USD softens and BoE maintains cautious stance.
BoE Policy: Bailey’s gradual rate-cut approach amid trade uncertainties supports GBP.
US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) limits Fed rate-cut bets, supporting USD but capped by fiscal concerns.
US-China Trade Talks: Optimism supports USD, but GBP benefits from USD pullback.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s budget bill pressures USD, aiding GBP/USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions bolster GBP’s safe-haven appeal.
Trend: Bullish, above 1.3500. RSI near 60 favors buyers.
Resistance: 1.3560, then 1.3615 (February 2022 high).
Support: 1.3500, then 1.3415 and 1.3375 (50% Fibonacci).
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3560 if trade talks stall. Strong deal could push to 1.3415.
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight GBP resilience, with 1.36 possible. Long Forecast sees 1.37 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, US fiscal developments.
WTI crude trades at $63.80, down 0.40% from a multi-week high, supported by US-China trade optimism.
US-China Trade Talks: London meeting fuels demand expectations, supporting WTI.
Geopolitical Risks: Canadian wildfires, Ukraine-Russia, and Middle East tensions limit downside.
OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd raises oversupply fears, capping gains.
US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) signals demand resilience, but fiscal concerns cap USD strength.
Trend: Bullish, above $63.20-$63.30 breakout. RSI near 50 suggests consolidation.
Resistance: $64.00, then $65.00.
Support: $63.20-$63.30, then $60.00.
Forecast: WTI may test $64.00 if trade talks succeed. Oversupply fears could push to $60.00.
Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI at $65.67, with $65 possible if supply tightens. Long Forecast sees $70 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, OPEC+ updates.
On June 9, 2025, markets are energized by US-China trade talks in London, lifting AUD/USD (0.6510) and NZD/USD (0.6035) on China’s Trade Surplus (CNY743.56B) despite deflationary pressures. EUR/USD (1.1400) and GBP/USD (1.3530) hold steady, while USD/CAD (1.3680) dips amid US-Canada tariff relief hopes. USD/JPY (143.20) softens on Japan’s revised GDP, and WTI crude ($63.80) consolidates. Safe-haven silver ($34.50) and gold ($3,355) remain firm amid geopolitical risks and US fiscal concerns. US-China trade outcomes, Chinese CPI/PPI, and Eurozone GDP will drive trends.
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