This site uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. By visiting monetamarkets.com, you accept our cookie policy.
Allow all
This website is operated by Moneta Markets Ltd, which is not authorised or regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and does not offer or promote services to UK residents. Access to this website is restricted in the UK and the content is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person located in the UK. If you believe you have reached this website in error, please exit the page now
Please note that Moneta Markets operates this website and its services are not directed at residents of your jurisdiction.
The information on this site is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
If you have arrived here in error, we kindly advise you to exit the site.
Continue to Site
Markets are holding steady as traders await the release of the US PCE inflation data, a crucial indicator for Federal Reserve policy. Key assets like gold, silver, oil, and major currency pairs show cautious positioning ahead of this influential report.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades flat near $4,205 during early Asian hours. Rising US Treasury yields and strong US jobs data limit upside ahead of the delayed US PCE inflation report.
Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty in Ukraine peace talks boosts safe-haven flows to gold.
US Economic Data: Lower-than-expected jobless claims at 191K support USD, capping gold gains; PCE data awaited for Fed clues.
FOMC Outcome: Expected 25 bps rate cut next week reduces gold’s opportunity cost.
Trade Policy: No direct mentions, but broader tensions could favor safe-havens.
Monetary Policy: Dovish Fed expectations underpin non-yielding gold.
Trend: Flat with upside capped by yields.
Resistance: Near $4,205 current levels.
Support: Not specified, but recent consolidation around $4,200.
Forecast: Sideways until PCE; hotter data may pressure lower.
Market Sentiment: Cautious, sidelined traders await PCE.
Catalysts: PCE inflation release later today.
Silver price (XAG/USD) rises 0.5% to near $57.50 after correcting from $58.90 all-time high. Gains stem from firm dovish Fed cut expectations.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct impact noted.
US Economic Data: Weak ADP jobs data at -32K fuels rate cut bets.
Trade Policy: Not highlighted.
Trend: Firm uptrend above rising 20-day EMA at $53.91.
Forecast: Upward bias if above EMA; consolidation possible.
Market Sentiment: Bullish momentum building.
Catalysts:Fed meeting next week.
WTI crude trades around $59.45, holding below $60 amid rising US stockpiles signaling excess supply. Fed rate cut bets provide downside cushion.
Geopolitical Risks: Ukraine attacks on Russian Druzhba pipeline raise supply concerns.
US Economic Data: EIA stockpiles up 574K barrels vs. expected draw.
FOMC Outcome: 89% chance of 25 bps cut next week.
Trend: Downward pressure from supply.
Resistance: $60.00.
Support: Around $59.45 current levels.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously supported by rate bets.
Catalysts: Geopolitical supply disruptions.
AUD/USD holds above 0.6600 near two-month high. Steady positioning persists ahead of US PCE data.
Geopolitical Risks: Minimal direct influence.
US Economic Data: PCE report to signal Fed path.
FOMC Outcome: Rate cut odds weigh on USD.
Trend: Bullish near highs.
Resistance: Two-month peak levels.
Support: 0.6600.
Forecast: Steady unless PCE surprises.
Market Sentiment: Optimistic above key level.
Catalysts: US PCE inflation data.
GBP/USD trades flat near 1.3330 amid PCE wait. Constructive above 1.3300 despite UK slowdown concerns.
US Economic Data: PCE for rate path hints.
FOMC Outcome: 89% odds of 25 bps cut to 3.50%-3.75%.
Trend: Firmer above 100-EMA at 1.3300.
Resistance:Upper Bollinger at 1.3348.
Support: 100-EMA 1.3300, then 1.3189.
Forecast: Bullish if holds EMA; volatility rising.
Market Sentiment: Positive momentum, RSI 61.
Catalysts: PCE data today.
The upcoming PCE inflation figures will likely shape market sentiment and guide future price movements. Investors should monitor developments closely to adjust strategies in response to evolving economic signals.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
The US Dollar traded mixed today as markets digested divergent central bank signals, with the Japanese Yen firming on expectations that the Bank of Japan may move further away from ultra-easy policy while the Federal Reserve remains tilted toward easing next year. Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar outperformed, with AUD/USD holding above the 0.6600 handle and touching its highest levels since late October, supported by a wider trade surplus and reduced odds of near-term RBA cuts.
USD/CAD is holding a mild positive bias around the 1.3960–1.3970 region after bouncing from near one‑month lows in the mid‑1.39s, snapping a recent two‑day losing streak. The pair’s recovery is modest, with buyers cautious as softer US yields and stable oil prices keep a lid on broad USD upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Global risk sentiment is relatively calm, allowing the pro‑cyclical Canadian Dollar to draw some support from steady crude prices, which tempers USD/CAD gains.
US Economic Data: Recent signs of cooling US activity reinforce expectations for additional Fed easing, preventing a sustained USD surge against the CAD.
FOMC Outcome: Markets still price further Fed cuts into 2026, limiting the room for a durable USD uptrend versus higher‑beta currencies like CAD.
Trade Policy: There are no fresh trade headlines directly impacting CAD, leaving the pair mainly driven by rate expectations and oil dynamics.
Monetary Policy: Divergence between a more dovish Fed and a relatively cautious Bank of Canada keeps upside capped even as risk‑off periods briefly favor the USD.
Trend: Short‑term tone is mildly bullish off the mid‑1.39 base but remains within a broader corrective phase below key longer‑term highs.
Resistance: Initial resistance is seen around 1.4000–1.4050, with stronger supply expected closer to the 1.4400 technical ceiling highlighted by analysts.
Support: First support aligns near 1.3920–1.3940, with a break exposing last week’s low in the mid‑1.39s.
Forecast: As long as the pair holds above mid‑1.39, a choppy grind toward 1.40 is possible, but any rallies are likely to face selling pressure amid dovish Fed expectations.
Market Sentiment: Positioning is cautious, with traders reluctant to chase upside given stretched CAD weakness earlier in the year and fading USD momentum.
Catalysts: Upcoming US data, Fed communication, and any shifts in oil prices will be key for near‑term direction in USD/CAD.
The Japanese Yen is building on recent gains, with USD/JPY trading below prior peaks as investors lean into expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue normalizing policy while the Fed moves closer to additional cuts. Safe‑haven demand amid periods of softer equity sentiment is also helping the Yen hold firmer against the Dollar.
Geopolitical Risks: Episodes of risk‑off tone in global equities support the Yen’s safe‑haven status, adding downside pressure on USD/JPY.
US Economic Data: Mixed but cooling US indicators have reinforced the dovish Fed narrative, weighing on the Dollar versus lower‑yielders like JPY.
Trade Policy: No major fresh trade headlines are in focus, leaving policy expectations and risk sentiment as primary Yen drivers.
Trend: The short‑term trend in USD/JPY has turned lower as the pair pulls back from recent highs and momentum indicators cool.
Forecast: As long as BoJ hike expectations remain firm and Fed cut bets stay elevated, further downside in USD/JPY or at least a heavy, sell‑on‑rallies tone looks likely.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is skewed in favor of Yen strength, with traders attentive to both verbal and potential direct intervention if volatility spikes
Catalysts:Upcoming US data releases, the next BoJ communications, and any change in global risk appetite will be crucial for the next leg in USD/JPY.
NZD/USD is trading softer near the 0.5750 area as a modest US Dollar rebound pressures the pair after recent gains driven by dovish Fed expectations. The Kiwi remains off its lows, with lingering expectations of additional Fed easing helping to limit the downside for now.
Geopolitical Risks: Broader risk sentiment remains a key factor for this high‑beta pair, with any shift to risk‑off typically weighing on NZD versus USD.
US Economic Data: Cooling US data keep rate‑cut odds elevated, but short‑term corrections in the Dollar can still trigger pullbacks in NZD/USD.
FOMC Outcome: The CME FedWatch data show high probabilities for another Fed cut, which should ultimately cap deeper Kiwi losses against the Greenback.
Trend: The near‑term trend is consolidative after a recovery from earlier lows, with the pair oscillating around the mid‑0.57 region.
Resistance: Initial resistance appears around 0.5800–0.5830, where recent rallies have run into supply.
Support: Support is seen near 0.5700–0.5720, with a break risking a retest of prior cycle lows.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment toward NZD is cautiously constructive but sensitive to China data and swings in global risk appetite.
Catalysts: Chinese PMIs, upcoming US releases, and any fresh RBNZ commentary will be key triggers for volatility in NZD/USD.
The People’s Bank of China set the daily USD/CNY central parity at 7.0733, slightly stronger than the previous fix of 7.0754, signaling a subtle preference for a firmer yuan. This comes as the offshore yuan trades near recent highs, supported by stronger fixings and improving sentiment toward China’s currency.
Geopolitical Risks: While US‑China tensions remain a background risk, there are no fresh escalations directly impacting today’s fix.
US Economic Data: Softer US data and Fed cut expectations have eased upward pressure on USD/CNY, allowing the PBOC to guide the pair modestly lower.
FOMC Outcome: Anticipated Fed easing reduces the risk of sharp Dollar appreciation versus the yuan, giving Beijing more room to support currency stability.
Trend: The broader trend in USD/CNY has shifted toward gradual yuan strengthening over the past month as the pair edges lower from prior highs.
Resistance: Resistance sits near recent peaks above 7.10, where prior advances were capped.
Support: Support is emerging just below 7.06, with further downside watched near the 7.00 psychological area.
Forecast: If the PBOC maintains slightly stronger fixes and Fed cut expectations persist, USD/CNY could remain under mild downward pressure or trade sideways with a soft USD bias.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment toward the yuan has improved as stronger fixings and expectations of policy stability bolster confidence in the currency.
Catalysts: Upcoming Chinese activity data, PBOC liquidity operations, and any shifts in US‑China policy rhetoric will guide the next moves in USD/CNY.
AUD/USD is extending its two‑week uptrend, trading firmly above 0.6600 and marking its highest levels since late October during the Asian session. The pair held its gains after Australian data showed a wider monthly trade surplus, reinforcing the Aussie’s fundamental underpinnings.
Geopolitical Risks: A relatively stable risk backdrop and a bullish tone in equities support demand for the risk‑sensitive Australian Dollar.
US Economic Data: Softer US data and elevated Fed rate‑cut expectations keep the US Dollar near a one‑month low, aiding AUD/USD strength.
FOMC Outcome: Markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed cut at the upcoming meeting, which weighs on the Greenback and favors higher‑beta currencies like AUD.
Trade Policy: Australia’s external sector remains a key support, with the latest trade figures signaling resilient export performance despite global headwinds.
Trend: The trend is clearly bullish in the near term, with price action confirming a breakout above prior resistance and reinforcing the upside bias.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is near 0.6629 (October high), with a further hurdle around the 0.6700–0.6710 year‑to‑date peak zone.
Support: Initial support lies around 0.6560–0.6580, with stronger demand expected just below 0.6500 if a deeper pullback occurs.
Forecast: As long as AUD/USD holds above 0.6600 and Fed cut pricing remains elevated, further upside toward 0.6660–0.6700 looks plausible, though overbought conditions could trigger interim consolidations.
Market Sentiment: Market mood around AUD is positive, with traders viewing dips as buying opportunities amid supportive data and policy divergence.
Catalysts: Upcoming Australian data, any fresh RBA commentary, and key US releases that affect Fed expectations will be the main drivers for the next leg in AUD/USD
Overall, today’s session highlighted a shifting FX landscape where policy divergence and trade dynamics are in focus: the Yen is drawing support from BoJ normalization bets, the Canadian Dollar and Kiwi are tracking a choppy but capped Dollar rebound, while the PBOC’s slightly stronger yuan fix underscores a desire for stability. With the Dollar’s upside looking limited against some majors and pro‑risk currencies like AUD gaining on solid data, traders will be watching upcoming US releases and central bank commentary for confirmation of the next leg in this mixed-Dollar environment.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
The US Dollar slipped ahead of key economic data releases, with traders positioning cautiously as markets await fresh signals on inflation, labor strength, and the Fed’s policy path. Risk sentiment was mixed across majors as commodity currencies reacted to shifting macro expectations and China-linked momentum.
The US Dollar Index slipped toward 99.20 as traders positioned cautiously ahead of major US data releases. The move reflects softer momentum in the dollar as the market waits for clarity on inflation and labor trends.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited influence for now, with attention shifting toward macro signals.
US Economic Data: Upcoming NFP, ISM, and PCE readings are the primary catalysts driving the latest USD pullback.
FOMC Outcome: Markets continue to price in December rate cuts, weighing on the dollar.
Trade Policy: No fresh trade headlines, but lingering global uncertainties remain mildly USD-supportive.
Monetary Policy: A more dovish Fed outlook contrasts with steadier policy tones abroad, contributing to DXY softness.
Trend: Short-term trend is turning bearish below 100.00.
Resistance: 100.00 / 100.40
Support: 99.20 / 98.80
Forecast: ias remains lower unless US data surprises to the upside.
Market Sentiment: Tilted bearish as rate-cut expectations increase.
Catalysts: US PCE, ISM, and jobs data will determine whether DXY sees a deeper pullback.
AUD/USD held firm despite weak Q3 GDP, supported by the RBA’s hawkish stance and steady demand for the Aussie near a multi-week high. Markets are reassessing the likelihood of further RBA tightening.
Geopolitical Risks: Low impact, with domestic data and China indicators taking priority.
US Economic Data: Softer USD supports AUD resilience ahead of US releases.
Trade Policy: Stable trade environment helps commodity currencies maintain traction.
Trend: Bullish bias with higher lows forming.
Forecast: Upside likely if RBA tone stays firm and USD remains pressured.
Market Sentiment: Positive as traders view GDP weakness as temporary.
Catalysts:Australia CPI, China PMI, and RBA commentary.
China’s Services PMI eased to 52.1, slightly below expectations, suggesting slower momentum in the services sector. The reading keeps Chinese growth concerns in focus.
Geopolitical Risks: Mild geopolitical tension continues to influence China-linked sentiment.
US Economic Data: Stronger USD data could amplify pressure on CNY.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed limits USD/CNY upside but doesn’t fully offset China’s soft data.
Trend: Neutral with a slight upward tilt.
Resistance: 7.16 / 7.18
Support: 7.12 / 7.10
Market Sentiment: Cautious due to mixed China growth signals.
Catalysts: China inflation, liquidity measures, and PBOC daily fixing.
NZD/USD strengthened toward 0.5750 as upbeat China PMI figures and Fed rate-cut expectations improved risk appetite. The kiwi benefitted from correlation to China’s economic signals.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable risk environment supports NZD flows.
US Economic Data: Softer USD ahead of major data releases boosts NZD.
FOMC Outcome: Markets expect the Fed to cut sooner, lifting the kiwi.
Trend: Turning bullish with improving momentum.
Resistance: 0.5780 / 0.5820
Support: 0.5700 / 0.5660
Forecast: Potential for a breakout higher if risk sentiment stays firm.
Market Sentiment: Improving, supported by China data.
Catalysts: US data, dairy auctions, China macro readings.
AUD/JPY remained below 102.50 after weak Australian GDP reduced growth sentiment, while the pair continues to track broader Asian risk flows.
Geopolitical Risks: Regional tensions remain mildly supportive of JPY safety flows.
US Economic Data: Little direct impact, though USD softness indirectly influences cross-flows.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed helps risk sentiment but not enough to lift AUD/JPY.
Trade Policy: Japan-Australia trade signals remain stable with limited impact.
Trend: Bearish below 102.50.
Resistance:102.80 / 103.20
Support: 101.80 / 101.40
Forecast: Further downside possible unless Australian data stabilizes.
Market Sentiment: Mixed, leaning bearish for AUD/JPY.
Catalysts: Australia CPI, BoJ commentary, Asian equity performance.
Overall, market direction now hinges on the upcoming US data slate, which is likely to set the tone for both USD performance and broader risk sentiment. Traders should stay alert to volatility as rate-cut expectations and cross-asset flows continue to shift.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
WTI crude slid below $59 as bearish demand expectations weighed on global markets, pressuring energy-linked currencies and dampening risk sentiment. The pullback in oil also contributed to weakness in the CAD, while mixed flows across major currencies reflected shifting central bank expectations. Meanwhile, steady policy signals from China and profit-taking in precious metals kept broader market movements contained ahead of key U.S. data.
WTI trades below $59.50, extending its decline as bearish demand expectations continue to dominate market sentiment. Traders remain cautious following OPEC+’s decision to halt supply hikes, which has failed to offset concerns over slowing global consumption.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited geopolitical disruption keeps supply flows stable, adding pressure to prices.
US Economic Data: Softening U.S. manufacturing and weak freight indicators reinforce demand worries.
FOMC Outcome: Growing expectations for future Fed cuts weigh on USD but fail to lift oil due to demand-side fears.
Trade Policy: No new tariff developments, leaving sentiment driven mainly by economic fundamentals.
Monetary Policy: Looser policy expectations globally point to slower economic momentum, dampening energy demand.
Trend: Near-term trend remains bearish after failing to recover the $60 handle.
Resistance: Immediate resistance sits at $59.80, followed by $60.50.
Support: Key support emerges at $58.70, then $58.10.
Forecast: WTI is likely to remain under pressure unless demand signals improve.
Market Sentiment: Traders remain cautious, with sentiment leaning bearish.
Catalysts: U.S. inventory data and updated demand forecasts from global agencies.
USD/CAD trades near 1.4000, maintaining recovery momentum as lower oil prices continue to weigh on the Canadian Dollar. Despite broad dovish Fed bets, the pair remains supported by commodity-driven weakness in the CAD.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable supply expectations reduce CAD support typically seen during geopolitical tensions.
US Economic Data: Mixed U.S. indicators create two-way movement but still offer slight USD support.
Trade Policy: No new U.S.–Canada trade shifts impacting the pair.
Trend: Bias remains mildly bullish above the 1.3980 support region.
Forecast: USD/CAD may grind higher if oil remains under pressure.
Market Sentiment: Tilted in favor of the USD due to commodity weakness.
Catalysts:Oil price movements and upcoming U.S. jobs data.
USD/JPY moves higher as the Yen drifts away from its two-week high amid a positive risk tone. Improved sentiment in global equities reduces demand for safe-haven currencies, pressuring the JPY.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited global tensions keep safe-haven demand subdued.
US Economic Data: Stable U.S. data supports USD resilience.
FOMC Outcome: Fed cut expectations cap USD upside but still allow moderate gains versus JPY.
Trend: Bias shifts bullish as USD/JPY rebounds from recent lows.
Resistance: 152.40 and 153.00.
Support: 151.60 and 151.00.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on sentiment weighs against JPY.
Catalysts: BoJ commentary and U.S. treasury yields.
Silver has slipped below $57.00 as profit-taking emerges after its record-breaking rally. The metal remains broadly bullish but vulnerable to short-term corrections.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable geopolitical conditions reduce safe-haven inflows.
US Economic Data: Modest U.S. improvements cool demand for defensive assets.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed expectations still support long-term metals strength.
Trend: Short-term correction within a broader uptrend.
Resistance: $57.60 and $58.25.
Support: $56.30 and $55.80.
Forecast: A pullback may stabilize before buyers attempt to retest highs.
Market Sentiment: Cautious but still broadly bullish.
Catalysts: US yields, risk sentiment, and momentum signals.
The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0794, slightly higher than the previous fix, signaling steady but controlled CNY movement. The adjustment reflects Beijing’s aim to maintain stability amid global volatility.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited tensions keep Beijing focused on economic stability rather than currency defense.
US Economic Data: Mild U.S. strength supports USD levels.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s dovish stance limits strong USD gains but CNY remains guided by policy.
Trade Policy: Stable U.S.–China trade relations reduce FX volatility.
Trend: Controlled upward bias within a managed band.
Resistance:7.0860 and 7.0930.
Support: 7.0710 and 7.0650.
Forecast: The pair is likely to stay range-bound under PBOC guidance.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to moderately USD-favored.
Catalysts: Chinese PMI data and PBOC liquidity operations.
Oil’s decline remained the focal point of today’s session, reinforcing concerns over global demand and shaping movement across commodities and FX pairs. With traders awaiting fresh economic indicators and potential central bank cues, short-term volatility is likely to persist across WTI, metals, and major currencies as markets position for the next catalyst.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Gold and silver surged to fresh highs today, driven by mounting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a pullback in US yields. Gold pushed above $4,200 while silver extended its record-breaking run beyond $57.50, underscoring strong momentum across precious metals.
Commodity markets were active as well, with oil jumping toward $59.30 after OPEC+ moved to halt supply increases, while major currencies reacted to weaker US Dollar flows and softening global manufacturing signals.
Gold extends its rally above $4,200 as investors continue pricing in deeper Fed rate cuts into early 2025. The latest upside move reflects easing US Treasury yields and sustained demand for haven assets despite improving risk sentiment.
Geopolitical Risks: Continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and Europe underpins safe-haven buying.
US Economic Data: Softer US releases have reinforced expectations of slowing economic momentum.
FOMC Outcome: Increasing market confidence that the Fed will begin cutting rates sooner is fueling upward pressure.
Trade Policy: Stable global trade conditions support demand for metals as alternative investment assets.
Monetary Policy: Expectations of a more accommodative Fed remain the primary bullish catalyst.
Trend: Strong bullish trend remains intact above major moving averages.
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands at $4,250.
Support: Initial support lies near $4,150.
Forecast: Momentum suggests potential continuation toward the mid-$4,200s if yields stay subdued.
Market Sentiment: Bullish sentiment dominates across the metals complex.
Catalysts: US inflation data and any fresh Fed commentary will be key drivers.
Silver pushes to a record high above $57.50 as bullish metals sentiment accelerates. Despite strong gains, overbought RSI conditions suggest limited room for immediate upside before a healthy correction.
Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions keep investor interest in safe-haven assets elevated.
US Economic Data: Mixed US indicators continue to weigh on the Dollar, benefiting silver.
Trade Policy: Stable trade flows support industrial metals demand.
Trend: Momentum remains strongly bullish despite overextended readings.
Forecast: Consolidation is likely, though deeper gains remain possible if Fed expectations strengthen.
Market Sentiment: Extremely bullish but monitoring for exhaustion signs.
Catalysts:US data and potential corrections in overbought conditions.
WTI jumps to near $59.30 after OPEC+ agreed to halt upcoming supply hikes, providing a bullish lift to the market. The decision offsets concerns about weakening global demand and helps stabilize prices.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions remain a key factor supporting crude.
US Economic Data: Soft data raises concerns for demand but is outweighed by supply optimism.
FOMC Outcome: Potential rate cuts may indirectly support oil via improved economic outlook.
Trend: Short-term momentum has turned positive following the OPEC+ announcement.
Resistance: Resistance sits at $60.00.
Support: Support aligns near $58.20.
Market Sentiment: Improving after the supply decision.
Catalysts: OPEC+ statements, US crude inventory data.
EUR/USD trades above 1.1600 and tests the 200-day SMA as the US Dollar weakens broadly. The pair is benefiting from improved Eurozone sentiment and reduced demand for Dollar safe-haven flows.
Geopolitical Risks: Calm geopolitical backdrop helps AUD maintain risk-linked support.
US Economic Data: Softer US metrics weigh on USD strength.
FOMC Outcome: Growing Fed cut expectations pressure the Dollar.
Trend: Short-term recovery remains intact.
Resistance: 1.1625 near the 200-day SMA.
Support: Immediate support lies at 1.1570.
Forecast: A break above the SMA may pave the way for further gains toward 1.1670.
Market Sentiment: Mildly bullish as USD softens.
Catalysts: Eurozone data and US Dollar positioning.
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.9 in November, missing expectations of 50.5 and signaling renewed contraction. The data weighs on Chinese economic sentiment and maintains pressure on the Yuan.
Geopolitical Risks: Global trade uncertainty increases downside risks to China’s manufacturing recovery.
US Economic Data: Weak US data supports Dollar softness but does little to lift Chinese domestic sentiment.
FOMC Outcome: Potential Fed cuts may relieve pressure on CNY in the medium term.
Trade Policy: China continues to navigate slower export demand.
Trend: Bias remains slightly upward as CNY faces pressure.
Resistance:7.0900.
Support: 7.0750.
Forecast: CNY may remain under pressure unless manufacturing momentum improves.
Market Sentiment: Cautious as manufacturing falls back into contraction.
Catalysts: PBOC statements and fiscal policy measures.
Precious metals dominated today’s market narrative, with gold and silver setting fresh highs as Fed rate cut bets intensified and the US Dollar weakened. Oil prices also firmed on OPEC+ supply decisions, while major currencies reacted to shifting rate expectations and mixed global data. Markets now look ahead to upcoming US releases and central bank commentary to confirm whether the current momentum across commodities and FX can continue.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Major currency pairs are moving broadly higher against the US Dollar today as growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to weigh on the greenback. GBP, AUD, and NZD are benefiting from stronger domestic signals, while China’s latest PBOC fixing keeps Asian FX relatively stable. Softer oil prices add upward pressure on USD/CAD, while market sentiment tilts cautiously optimistic ahead of key US inflation data and month-end flows.
GBP/USD trades near 1.3250 after extending gains on renewed Fed rate-cut expectations that continue to pressure the US Dollar. The pair remains well-supported as markets lean toward a softer USD heading into key US data.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited geopolitical escalation keeps safe-haven demand for the USD contained.
US Economic Data: Softening US indicators fuel expectations for earlier Fed easing.
FOMC Outcome: Markets increasingly price in a dovish tilt, helping GBP stay supported.
Trade Policy: No major trade disruptions affecting GBP/USD flows
Monetary Policy: BoE remains cautious, but stable UK outlook helps anchor sterling demand.
Trend: Short-term trend remains bullish above 1.3200.
Resistance: Initial at 1.3300, followed by 1.3360.
Support: Key support sits at 1.3180 and 1.3120.
Forecast: Momentum favors further upside if USD weakness persists.
Market Sentiment: Traders are leaning risk-on, benefiting high-beta currencies like GBP.
Catalysts: US PCE, Fed speeches, and UK PMI data.
NZD/USD trades near 0.5730, holding close to its monthly top as the RBNZ’s firm inflation stance supports the kiwi. The pair is outperforming many majors as investors rotate into currencies backed by hawkish policy signals.
Geopolitical Risks: Low global tensions keep demand steady for risk-linked currencies.
US Economic Data: Mixed US data allows the NZD to maintain relative strength.
Trade Policy: China-related trade sentiment stabilizes, indirectly supporting the NZD.
Trend: Strong bullish trend above 0.5680.
Forecast: A breakout above 0.5755 could open a push toward 0.5800.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on bias favors high-yield currencies like NZD.
Catalysts:RBNZ commentary, Chinese economic data, US Dollar reaction to Fed expectations.
USD/CNY trades steady after the PBOC set today’s fixing slightly higher, signaling its continued commitment to FX stability. The pair remains in a tight range as China manages capital flows and supports sentiment through controlled currency moves.
Geopolitical Risks: Regional tensions remain manageable, supporting CNY stability.
US Economic Data: Continued US softness keeps markets watching the Fed for direction.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish expectations limit aggressive USD appreciation.
Trend: Neutral with slight upward bias.
Resistance: 7.0850 remains immediate resistance.
Support: 7.0700 and 7.0620 act as strong downside levels.
Market Sentiment: Cautious but stable as markets await China’s next policy signals.
Catalysts: PBOC liquidity operations, Chinese PMI releases, US yields.
AUD/USD climbs as hotter inflation data reduces expectations of near-term RBA easing. The pair benefits from improving domestic sentiment and a softer USD backdrop.
Geopolitical Risks: Calm geopolitical backdrop helps AUD maintain risk-linked support.
US Economic Data: Mixed US data keeps USD under pressure.
FOMC Outcome: Rate-cut expectations for the Fed encourage USD softness.
Trend: Bullish momentum intact above 0.6630.
Resistance: 0.6720 followed by 0.6760.
Support: 0.6660 and 0.6600.
Forecast: Further upside likely if inflation remains elevated and risk sentiment stays firm.
Market Sentiment: Risk appetite supports AUD demand.
Catalysts: RBA commentary, China data, and US inflation prints.
USD/CAD trades above 1.4000 as falling crude prices undermine the Canadian Dollar. The pair remains supported as oil weakness limits CAD’s ability to recover.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable geopolitical landscape keeps oil volatility in check but weak demand pressures CAD.
US Economic Data: Soft US data tempers USD gains but does not offset oil-driven CAD weakness.
FOMC Outcome: Anticipated Fed cuts limit broader USD appreciation.
Trade Policy: No major trade disruptions affecting CAD flows.
Trend: Uptrend remains intact above 1.3970.
Resistance: 1.4050 and 1.4100.
Support: 1.3980 and 1.3920.
Forecast: Further upside possible if oil remains soft.
Market Sentiment: Slightly risk-off in commodities keeps CAD pressured.
Catalysts: Oil-inventory data, BoC statements, US Dollar response to risk conditions.
Today’s FX landscape remains shaped by shifting monetary expectations, with rate-cut bets driving most directional moves across major pairs. Antipodean currencies are supported by central bank cues, while GBP gains traction on improving UK sentiment and softer USD conditions. Traders now look toward US PCE data and fresh central bank commentary for confirmation of the next major macro catalyst.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Gold and silver are taking center stage today as traders react to shifting Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations and a softer US Dollar, both of which tend to favor non‑yielding precious metals. Price action in both XAU/USD and XAG/USD is being driven by the same macro story: lower yields, a weaker Greenback, and persistent demand for safe‑haven assets despite periods of risk‑on sentiment.
USD/JPY is extending its decline as the Japanese Yen benefits from a weaker US Dollar and renewed concern over potential official intervention to curb excessive Yen weakness. Divergent policy expectations, with markets flirting with BoJ normalization while pricing Fed rate cuts, keep the pair under downside pressure.
Geopolitical Risks: Periods of risk‑off mood and regional uncertainty in Asia can add to safe‑haven demand for JPY, amplifying downside in USD/JPY.
US Economic Data: Softer US data have weighed on Treasury yields and the Dollar, reinforcing the pair’s bearish bias.
FOMC Outcome: Expectations for a December Fed cut increase the policy divergence narrative in favor of JPY, as US yields move lower.
Trade Policy: Any escalation in trade tensions that hits global growth tends to support JPY as a safe haven, limiting USD/JPY rallies.
Monetary Policy: Markets are slowly pricing in BoJ tightening prospects while anticipating Fed easing, a combination that favors further USD/JPY downside.
Trend: The short‑term trend has turned lower, with the pair trading near recent one‑week lows and below key intraday moving averages.
Resistance: Initial resistance is seen at the latest breakdown area, where failed rebounds would confirm bears remain in control.
Support: Immediate support comes from the recent trough, with a clean break opening room for a deeper corrective leg.
Forecast: As long as intervention fears and BoJ‑Fed divergence persist, risk favors a grind lower, though sporadic short‑covering rallies remain likely.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously bearish USD/JPY, with traders wary of sudden spikes if authorities push back verbally against rapid Yen moves.
Catalysts: Upcoming US data, BoJ commentary, and any signals of actual FX intervention are the main near‑term catalysts.
Gold is trading below a recent two‑week high, giving back part of its prior advance as a positive risk tone tempers safe‑haven demand even while Fed rate‑cut bets remain supportive. The metal is consolidating in a relatively tight range, reflecting a tug‑of‑war between weaker USD/yields and improved appetite for risk assets.
Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical hotspots still provide a floor under gold, but with headlines quieter, the risk premium is not aggressively expanding.
US Economic Data: Data consistent with slowing but not collapsing growth keep rate‑cut expectations alive, helping cap the downside in XAU/USD
Trade Policy: Trade tensions are not the main story today, but any negative surprise could quickly revive safe‑haven flows into bullion.
Trend: The short‑term trend is still constructive, with prices holding above prior breakout levels despite the current pullback.
Forecast: Provided gold holds above its near‑term support band, the bias favors another attempt at the recent highs as long as the Fed narrative stays dovish.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is mildly bullish but less euphoric, with traders preferring to buy dips rather than chase breakouts in a risk‑on environment.
Catalysts:US inflation data, labor numbers, and Fed communication remain the main triggers for any decisive move away from current ranges.
Silver has slipped back below the 53.00 handle, retracing part of its recent rally even though markets still anticipate Fed rate cuts that generally support precious metals. The move reflects a combination of profit‑taking and sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment, given silver’s dual role as both a precious and industrial metal.
Geopolitical Risks: Periods of geopolitical stress can bolster silver alongside gold, but with tensions less acute, the safe‑haven bid is more moderate.
US Economic Data: Mixed US data keep rate‑cut pricing intact but also raise questions about industrial demand, which matters more for silver than for gold.
FOMC Outcome: A clearly dovish FOMC outcome would likely reignite upside in XAG/USD, while any pushback on December cut odds could deepen the pullback.
Trend: The overarching trend remains bullish, but the short‑term picture shows a corrective phase after failing to hold above 53.00.
Resistance: The 53.00 region has turned back into resistance and must be reclaimed to restore immediate upside momentum.
Support: Nearby support is seen at successive higher lows on the chart, with a stronger floor around the psychologically important 50.00 area.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with traders watching for confirmation that the dip is being bought rather than the start of a larger trend reversal.
Catalysts: US data, FOMC rhetoric, and broader risk appetite—plus any sharp move in gold—are likely to dictate the next leg for XAG/USD.
AUD/USD is extending gains as the US Dollar softens on growing Fed rate‑cut expectations while markets assume the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy steady for now. The pair trades near a one‑and‑a‑half‑week high, supported by improved risk sentiment and a bid for higher‑yielding currencies.
Geopolitical Risks: A relatively calm geopolitical backdrop helps pro‑cyclical currencies like AUD outperform, especially when risk assets are bid.
US Economic Data: S data have undercut the Dollar, compressing yield differentials in favor of AUD.
FOMC Outcome: Expectations for a December Fed cut tilt the macro balance toward currencies leveraged to global growth, including the Aussie.
Trend: The near‑term trend has turned bullish, with AUD/USD posting a multi‑day winning streak and holding above short‑term moving averages.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at the recent swing high; a break above would confirm continuation toward the next medium‑term resistance band.
Support: Initial support is seen at the latest breakout area, with deeper support near the prior range lows if the pair corrects lower.
Forecast: While some consolidation after the latest run‑up is possible, the bias favors further upside as long as the Fed easing narrative stays intact and risk sentiment remains constructive.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is risk‑positive and AUD‑supportive, with investors rotating toward higher‑beta FX as the Dollar weakens.
Catalysts: Chinese data, Australian releases, and any shift in Fed pricing will be key in determining whether AUD/USD can extend beyond current resistance.
West Texas Intermediate crude is trading around 58.30 per barrel after slipping below 58.50, giving back prior gains as reports of a potential Ukraine–Russia ceasefire weigh on prices. The prospect of sanctions relief and higher future Russian supply has hit the market in thin Thanksgiving‑affected liquidity.
Geopolitical Risks: Hopes for a ceasefire reduce the immediate war‑premium in crude, though skepticism about a quick deal keeps volatility elevated.
US Economic Data: US growth and demand indicators still matter for the medium‑term oil outlook, but today’s move is driven more by supply‑side headlines.
FOMC Outcome: Expectations of Fed easing can support demand prospects over time, but they are being overshadowed near‑term by the ceasefire narrative.
Trade Policy: Any changes to sanctions or trade restrictions on Russian oil are critical, as they could reshape seaborne supply flows.
Trend: The short‑term trend is fragile, with WTI pulling back after failing to extend its recent more‑than‑1% advance.
Resistance:The previous session’s high now acts as immediate resistance, with additional supply expected near the 60.00 psychological level.
Support: Initial support sits just below 58.00, followed by deeper support zones defined by recent swing lows on the daily chart.
Forecast: If ceasefire expectations grow and OPEC+ keeps output steady, prices may remain under pressure or range‑bound, with only modest bounces on dips.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment has turned more cautious, with traders reluctant to chase upside while the risk of additional Russian barrels hangs over the market.
Catalysts: Concrete news on the Ukraine–Russia talks, any adjustment in Western sanctions, and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting outcome will be decisive for the next move in WTI.
Overall, today’s metals moves highlight how sensitive gold and silver remain to changes in Fed pricing and US data, with even modest shifts in rate expectations quickly reflected in spot prices. For traders, that keeps the focus on upcoming US releases and Fed communication as the key catalysts for the next leg in the precious‑metals trend.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Today’s Forex markets are driven by heightened focus on central bank policy and major currency shifts. The Japanese Yen surges in response to Bank of Japan policy bets, while global markets respond to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. Commodities like silver and oil trend higher, reflecting softer US yields and ongoing trade optimism. Traders are navigating mixed sentiment ahead of key data releases and policy meetings.
EUR/JPY trades below 181.00, showing little movement as traders digest contrasting signals from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank. The pair has been consolidating, with no decisive breakout in recent sessions.
Geopolitical Risks: No major external disruptions but cautious outlook persists on East Asian supply chains.
US Economic Data: Indirect influence—persistent dollar strength weighs on Euro crosses.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed tones keep global risk appetite elevated.
Trade Policy: Stable, though new EU-Japan agreements expected to encourage flows.
Monetary Policy: BoJ hawkishness offsets ECB optimism.
Trend: Sideways consolidation, awaiting catalyst.
Resistance: 181.40/181.80.
Support: 180.00/179.40.
Forecast: Likely to remain range-bound unless BoJ surprise or Eurozone data impresses.
Market Sentiment: Cautious, mixed Eurozone and Japan signals.
Catalysts: BoJ policy news, Eurozone inflation data.
Silver (XAG/USD) has advanced to trade just below $52 amid declining US Treasury yields and increased safe-haven flows. The upbeat performance reflects growing investor skepticism over imminent Fed rate hikes.
Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions support safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Weak yield data boosts precious metals.
Trade Policy: No major changes, global supply in focus.
Trend: Bullish short-term momentum.
Forecast: Potential upside if US data stays soft.
Market Sentiment: Bullish, metals favored on lower yields.
Catalysts:US macro releases, Fed commentary.
USD/JPY is under pressure, falling to new multi-week lows as the Japanese Yen rallies on speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike. The US Dollar’s weakness against most majors adds to Yen strength.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable, focus shifts to monetary policy.
US Economic Data: Softer US data fuels USD/JPY downside.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish tones increase pressure.
Trend: Bearish, with strong Yen momentum.
Resistance: 157.80/158.40.
Support: 156.20/155.70.
Market Sentiment: Bearish USD, bullish JPY.
Catalysts: BoJ meeting, Fed statements, wage data.
WTI crude oil has moved above $58.00, buoyed by optimism that Fed rate cuts will spur demand. The market also factors in signs of tightening US inventory.
Geopolitical Risks: OPEC tensions continue to limit downside.
US Economic Data: Softer growth outlook supports prices.
FOMC Outcome: Rate cut hopes fuel risk assets, including oil.
Trend: Mild bullish bias.
Resistance: $58.50/$59.20.
Support: $57.40/$56.50.
Forecast: Potential extension above $60 if Fed dovishness persists.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism, Fed-driven.
Catalysts: US inventory reports, rate policy updates.
USD/CAD slid to the 1.4080 level, reacting to further dovish expectations from the Fed and improving Canadian economic data. Traders anticipate continued volatility as US Dollar sentiment shifts.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable, minor Canada-US border impact.
US Economic Data: Dovish US data weakens dollar.
FOMC Outcome: Fed expectations drive CAD strength.
Trade Policy: No major impediments, trade flows steady.
Trend: Bearish USD/CAD, momentum favoring CAD.
Resistance: 1.4130/1.4180.
Support: 1.4050/1.4020.
Forecast: Sideways to lower, pending US data confirmation.
Market Sentiment: Bearish USD, constructive CAD.
Catalysts: US CPI, BoC statements.
Today’s Forex landscape is shaped by central bank speculation and diverging monetary policy stances. The Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar outperform on hawkish domestic signals, while US Dollar weakness and dovish Fed expectations support risk assets like silver and oil. Technical and sentiment readings favor volatility, with traders closely watching macro data and central bank updates for decisive movements.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Today’s global financial markets focused on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, which retreated to near $58.50 amid headlines highlighting geopolitical developments, central bank rate speculation, and currency moves. Market participants are closely watching oil price action as potential peace hopes between Ukraine and Russia influence risk sentiment and the outlook for commodities.
WTI slipped to $58.50 as hopes for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia gained traction, pushing risk assets lower and weighing on commodity prices. Traders remain cautious ahead of the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude oil stock report.
Geopolitical Risks: Peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have reached a critical stage, raising the possibility of a ceasefire and further downside risk for oil prices.
US Economic Data: Anticipation of upcoming API and EIA inventory figures is keeping traders alert.
FOMC Outcome: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance remains a driving factor in global commodity markets.
Trade Policy: No major trade policy changes affecting WTI today.
Monetary Policy: Rising bets on a US rate cut help limit further declines.
Trend: The trend is slightly bearish as energy markets await confirmation of peace progress.
Resistance: Key resistance is near the $59.50-$60.00 zone.
Support: Strong support found around $57.70.
Forecast: Weakness may persist if geopolitical risks ease, but volatility could return on fresh headlines.
Market Sentiment: Risk sentiment remains cautious with many positioned defensively.
Catalysts: API/EIA inventory reports and Ukraine-Russia developments.
USD/CAD trades near 1.4100 with both currencies reacting to weakening oil prices and US rate cut speculation. The pair’s direction remains tightly linked to WTI’s price movements amid broad market uncertainty.
Geopolitical Risks: Energy prices, especially WTI, influence Canada’s CAD performance.
US Economic Data: Weak labor market data drives Fed cut bets.
Trade Policy: No major developments.
Trend: Mild uptrend for USD/CAD as oil stays soft.
Forecast: Pair likely to remain rangebound, sensitive to Fed and oil news.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to cautious.
Catalysts:API report, Fed comments.
The Australian Dollar steadied as markets evaluate local CPI figures and global central bank trends, notably US Fed rate cut expectations. AUD remains susceptible to risk-on/off moves driven by WTI volatility.
Geopolitical Risks: Oil price changes and China growth remain key.
US Economic Data: CPI data in focus.
FOMC Outcome: Rate cut bets sway global risk outlook.
Trend: Sideways.
Resistance: 0.6670.
Support: 0.6615.
Market Sentiment: Wait-and-see.
Catalysts: Oil fluctuations, inflation data.
EUR/USD moved moderately higher to 1.1525-30, benefiting from a softer US Dollar amid mounting Fed rate cut expectations. Oil’s weaker trend indirectly supported EUR demand as US yields declined.
Geopolitical Risks: Secondary impact from energy prices.
US Economic Data: US Dollar weakness on soft data.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish forecasts benefit EUR.
Trend: Slight bullish.
Resistance: 1.1555.
Support: 1.1510.
Forecast: Upside possible if USD continues to weaken.
Market Sentiment: Mildly risk-on.
Catalysts: Fed communications, energy market moves.
The Japanese Yen traded stronger against a softer US Dollar, with market speculation around potential intervention if volatility spikes. Oil price downturn reduced safe-haven flows.
Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven demand sensitive to Ukraine headlines.
US Economic Data: Weaker USD supports JPY.
FOMC Outcome: Rate cut bets drive flows.
Trade Policy: No impact.
Trend: Firm.
Resistance: 149.80 (USD/JPY).
Support: 148.25.
Forecast: JPY may gain further on risk-off moves.
Market Sentiment: Defensive.
Catalysts: Intervention fears, oil volatility.
In summary, today’s market narrative centered on WTI oil’s retreat as peace hopes and shifting central bank expectations shaped market sentiment. Currencies, equities, and commodities alike remained influenced by the outcome of Ukraine peace talks and the increased likelihood of a December Fed rate cut. Traders should continue to watch headline risks, central bank policy signals, and commodity price action as they unfold in coming sessions.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Markets opened on a cautious note Monday, with attention firmly fixed on Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for December. The US Dollar Index held steady near the 100.00 level as investors balanced mixed economic signals against the growing probability of further monetary easing. Meanwhile, precious metals surged on dovish Fed sentiment, with gold breaking above $4,050 and silver showing volatility on shifting policy expectations. Currency pairs including AUD/USD and USD/CAD have also adjusted their trajectories in response to changing interest rate narratives. Here’s what you need to know as these key drivers shape today’s trading landscape.
The US Dollar Index is holding steady near the 100.00 psychological level as markets digest Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for December. Mixed economic signals and dovish Fed commentary have created a delicate balance between dollar strength and weakness, keeping the currency pair in consolidation mode.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to provide safe-haven bids to the US Dollar, though sentiment remains mixed given expectations for lower interest rates ahead.
US Economic Data: Upcoming US economic releases including Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index will be crucial in determining the Fed’s path forward and influencing dollar direction.
FOMC Outcome: Market participants are heavily pricing in a December rate cut, with Fed speakers including ECB President Lagarde and others offering guidance on monetary policy stance, which directly impacts USD strength.
Trade Policy: Trade war uncertainties remain on the radar, with any escalation potentially supporting the dollar as a safe-haven asset despite rate cut expectations.
Monetary Policy: The Fed’s dovish tone and growing acceptance of rate cuts have capped upside in the dollar, with markets now pricing lower rates as the baseline scenario.
Trend: The Dollar Index is trading within a consolidation pattern near the 100.00 level, showing indecision between bulls and bears.
Resistance: Key resistance lies at 100.50, with a break above this level needed to signal a fresh bullish move higher.
Support: Strong support is established at 99.50, with a breakdown below this level potentially accelerating selling pressure.
Forecast: Expect the US Dollar to remain range-bound in the near term, with direction contingent on fresh economic data and Fed commentary.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautious, with traders split between those expecting rate cuts and those betting on Fed resilience; the 100.00 level has become a key emotional barrier.
Catalysts: Upcoming US economic data, ECB speeches, and any new Fed guidance will serve as catalysts; investors will also watch for any changes in rate cut probability from current levels.
Gold has broken above the $4,050 level on the back of strong Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand. The precious metal is benefiting from a dovish monetary policy outlook, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Geopolitical Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions provide consistent safe-haven support for gold prices, encouraging investors to hedge portfolio risk through precious metal allocations.
US Economic Data: Weaker-than-expected US economic data strengthens the case for Fed rate cuts, which is bullish for gold; traders will closely monitor upcoming releases for confirmation.
Trade Policy: Trade tensions and uncertainty around tariff policies add to gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset in an uncertain macro environment.
Trend: Gold is trading in a strong uptrend with higher lows and higher highs, signaling sustained bullish momentum above the $4,050 level.
Forecast: Expect gold to continue higher in the near term, targeting $4,100+ if rate cut expectations remain intact and safe-haven demand persists.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is decidedly bullish for gold, with investors embracing the precious metal as both a hedge and a beneficiary of falling real yields.
Catalysts: Major catalysts include US inflation data, Fed decision communications, and any escalation in geopolitical risks; weaker-than-expected employment or inflation data would be bullish for gold.
Silver is trading below the $50.00 level and showing vulnerability to further declines despite the broader precious metals rally. The metal is lagging gold, suggesting profit-taking or a shift in risk sentiment, though it remains elevated above key support levels.
Geopolitical Risks: While geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand, silver’s industrial use means that economic uncertainty can pressure prices if it signals slower industrial demand ahead.
US Economic Data: Silver’s performance is tied to both safe-haven flows and industrial demand; weaker economic data is mixed for silver as it can indicate deflation (bullish) or slower manufacturing (bearish).
FOMC Outcome: Fed rate cuts benefit silver through lower real yields, though the effect is more muted than for gold due to silver’s sensitivity to economic growth cycles.
Trend: Silver is consolidating below $50.00 with a slightly bearish bias, showing resistance to confirming a sustained breakout despite the precious metals rally.
Resistance: Resistance is established at $50.00, with the next level at $50.50; a break above would open the door to $51.00 and higher.
Support: Key support lies at $49.50, with a break below this level potentially accelerating selling toward $49.00 and the $48.50 level.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously bearish, with silver underperforming gold suggesting some profit-taking or a lack of conviction among investors.
Catalysts: Industrial demand data, manufacturing PMI readings, and any indication of economic weakness or strength will impact silver; a move below $49.50 would signal further downside.
The Australian Dollar remains steady against the US Dollar amid cautious Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sentiment and upcoming inflation data. Traders are positioning for potential RBA policy decisions following the release of Australia’s new “complete” monthly CPI on Wednesday.
Geopolitical Risks: Australia’s exposure to China and Asia-Pacific trade dynamics means geopolitical tensions in the region can impact the AUD; however, current risks remain contained.
US Economic Data: US data strength or weakness directly impacts AUD as a risk-sensitive currency; stronger USD data can pressure the AUD lower.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s move toward rate cuts supports the AUD as it narrows the interest rate differential between the US and Australia, making AUD-denominated assets more attractive.
Trend: The AUD/USD is consolidating around recent support levels with a neutral-to-bullish bias as RBA expectations align with Fed easing.
Resistance: Key resistance is at 0.6600, with a break above opening the door to 0.6650 and 0.6700 levels.
Support: Strong support has formed at 0.6550, with secondary support at 0.6500; a break below would signal potential weakness toward 0.6450.
Forecast: The AUD/USD is likely to consolidate ahead of Australian CPI data on Wednesday; direction thereafter will depend on the inflation print and RBA policy signals.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously optimistic for AUD as markets await clarity on RBA policy direction following the upcoming CPI release.
Catalysts: Australia’s October CPI on Wednesday is the critical event; stronger-than-expected inflation could support the AUD, while weakness could accelerate selling.
USD/CAD remains below the 1.4100 level amid renewed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The pair is caught between USD weakness from dovish Fed expectations and CAD support from commodity prices (particularly oil), creating a balanced trading environment.
Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical tensions, particularly those affecting oil prices, can impact the commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar; higher oil prices support CAD, lower prices weigh on it.
US Economic Data: Weaker US economic data supports Fed rate cut expectations and weakens USD, which is bearish for USD/CAD; traders will monitor upcoming releases closely.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s pivot toward rate cuts weighs on USD and pushes USD/CAD lower; any hawkish surprise from Fed speakers could reverse this dynamic.
Trade Policy: Trade tensions affecting North America (US-Canada) or global trade dynamics can impact both currencies; any escalation in trade war risk typically supports the safe-haven USD.
Trend: USD/CAD is in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows as Fed rate cut expectations weigh on the US Dollar.
Resistance:Key resistance is at 1.4150, with a break above opening the door to 1.4200; breaking below trend resistance would be needed to reverse the bearish bias.
Support: Strong support has formed at 1.4050, with secondary support at 1.4000; a break below this level could accelerate selling toward 1.3950.
Forecast: Expect USD/CAD to remain under pressure near 1.4100; traders should watch for a break below 1.4050 as a potential signal for further downside.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is bearish for USD/CAD as Fed rate cut expectations dominate and the market prices in USD weakness relative to CAD.
Catalysts: US economic data, Fed commentary, and oil price movements will be key catalysts; any surprise in US inflation or employment data could trigger volatility.
The consensus is clear: Fed policy expectations are the dominant driver across forex and commodity markets today. The Dollar’s stability near 100.00 reflects the delicate balance between hawkish and dovish narratives, while gold’s breakout above $4,050 signals growing appetite for safe-haven assets. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic data and any fresh Fed commentary carefully, as these could reignite volatility across currency pairs and precious metals. Keep your risk management strategies in place and stay alert for key support and resistance levels as markets continue to digest the implications of potential December rate cuts.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Open a live account and start trading in just minutes.
Fund your account using a wide range of funding methods.
Access 1000+ instruments across all asset classes
