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Instruments 2025-05-30 2025-06-02 2025-06-03 2025-06-04 2025-06-05 2025-06-06 2025-06-09 DJ30 (USD) 18.441 13.339 0 0 14.138 0 0 SPI200 (AUD) 0 0 0.114 0 0 0 0 HK50 (HKD) 2.26 2.106 0.36 4.821 3.755 29.723 6.072 Nikkei225 (JPN) 0 0 0 …
Global markets on May 29, 2025, are reacting to a US federal court’s decision to block Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, boosting risk sentiment and pressuring safe-haven assets. The US Dollar (DXY at 100.30) rises to a weekly high, supported by hawkish FOMC minutes and strong US data, though Q1 GDP data (-0.3% expected) looms. AUD/USD weakens to 0.6410 after soft Australian capex (-0.1%), while GBP/JPY gains to 195.85 on JPY weakness. USD/JPY hits 145.91, EUR/JPY nears 164.00, and NZD/USD dips to 0.5935. Gold falls to $3,295, silver holds at $33.20, and WTI crude steadies at $61.15. US GDP, PCE, and Tokyo CPI data are key catalysts.
Current Level: DXY trades near 100.30, up 0.5%, a weekly high.
Market Dynamics: A US court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs lifts risk sentiment, supporting USD after hawkish FOMC minutes emphasized steady rates amid policy uncertainty. Strong US Consumer Confidence (98.0) and Durable Goods Orders (-6.3% vs. -7.9%) bolster the Greenback. Q1 GDP (-0.3% annualized, per CNBC) and PCE data (Thursday) are critical, with imports-driven contraction (41.3% surge) clouding outlook. US fiscal concerns (Moody’s Aa1 downgrade) and Trump’s $4T tax bill cap gains.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 100.50; support at 99.80. RSI near 55 suggests cautious bullishness, per X posts.
Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6410, down 0.4%.
Market Dynamics: Australia’s Q1 Private Capital Expenditure fell 0.1% (vs. +0.5% expected), weakening AUD. RBA’s dovish stance (65% chance of July cut) and US-China trade tensions (US tech export curbs) pressure the pair, despite China’s 3% YoY industrial profit growth. USD strength (DXY at 100.30) and tariff-block news add headwinds. Q1 GDP and US PCE data are key, with Darwin Port tensions adding volatility.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6537; support at 0.6382 (50-day EMA). RSI at 50 signals neutral bias, with downside risks to 0.5914.
Current Level: GBP/JPY trades near 195.85, up 0.4%.
Market Dynamics: JPY weakens as tariff-block news reduces safe-haven demand, lifting GBP/JPY near a multi-month high (196.30). BoJ rate-hike bets (Ueda’s 2% target focus) limit JPY losses, while USD strength (DXY at 100.30) caps GBP gains. Hot UK CPI (3.5% YoY) supports GBP, but BoE’s cautious outlook (38 bps cuts in 2025) tempers upside. Tokyo CPI (Friday) and US GDP data are focal points.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 196.40; support at 195.40. Bullish RSI above 60 targets 198.25, with 200-day SMA as a base.
GBP/JPY Forecast: Analysts on X see GBP/JPY testing 197.00 if it breaks 196.40, driven by JPY weakness and risk-on sentiment. BoJ policy tightening could cap gains, with support at 194.00 if pullbacks occur.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 145.91, up 0.74%.
Market Dynamics: Tariff-block news and Japan’s bond auction concerns (lowest demand since July) weaken JPY. USD strength (hawkish FOMC minutes) and risk-on mood lift USD/JPY to a two-week high, per X posts. BoJ’s hawkish stance (Services PPI at 3.1% YoY) and Fed rate-cut bets (two 25 bps cuts in 2025) limit JPY losses. Tokyo CPI (Friday) and Q1 GDP are key.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 146.20; support at 145.35. RSI near 60 supports upside to 147.60, per Long Forecast.
USD/JPY Forecast: Long Forecast predicts USD/JPY at 147 by May-end, with volatility expected through 2025 (low of 135 by October). X posts suggest resistance at 146.20, with Fed signals critical.
Current Level: WTI crude trades near $61.15, flat.
Market Dynamics: US-EU tariff relief and Yemen tensions support WTI, but OPEC+ output hike concerns (+411,000 bpd for July) and US-Iran nuclear talk progress cap gains. EIA inventory build (+1.328M barrels) adds bearish pressure. Q1 GDP (-0.3%) and OPEC+ meeting (May 31) are critical.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $62.00; support at $60.00. Neutral RSI near 50 awaits catalysts.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,295, down 0.2%.
Market Dynamics: Tariff-block news and USD strength (DXY at 100.30) pressure gold, with hawkish FOMC minutes adding headwinds. US fiscal concerns (Moody’s projects 134% debt-to-GDP by 2035) and geopolitical risks (Yemen strikes, Russia-Ukraine talks) limit losses. Q1 GDP (-0.3% due to 41.3% import surge) and PCE data are key, with Chinese demand supporting XAU/USD.
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,245; resistance at $3,300. RSI below 50 favors bears, with $3,215 as a downside target.
Today’s Data: US Q1 GDP (-0.3% annualized, per BEA) is expected to confirm import-driven contraction (41.3% surge), with PCE Prices QoQ and Initial Jobless Claims also due. Tokyo CPI (Friday) will shape BoJ expectations, while US PCE Price Index (Friday) is critical for Fed policy (3.6% Q1 rise).
Geopolitical Developments: Israel’s Yemen strikes and Russia-Ukraine peace talk proposals (June 2) boost safe-haven JPY, gold, and silver. US-Iran nuclear talks progress slowly, impacting WTI.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T tax bill and Moody’s Aa1 downgrade raise deficit fears (9% GDP by 2035). FOMC’s cautious stance highlights stagflation risks.
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US court’s tariff block and EU tariff delay (July 9) ease tensions, but US-China tech export curbs and China’s mineral restrictions strain relations. China’s 3% industrial profit growth supports AUD and NZD. Darwin Port tensions add AUD volatility.
Trump Tariffs Impact: The blocked “Liberation Day” tariffs (10% baseline) reduce immediate pressure, but Trump’s appeal and ongoing trade policy uncertainty could impact GDP growth (-0.9% in 2025, per Yale).
Q1 GDP Context: Q1 GDP contracted 0.3% (vs. 0.4% expected), driven by a 41.3% import surge ahead of April tariffs, per BEA. Economists note a potential Q2 rebound if imports normalize, but tariffs could slow growth to 1.6% in 2025.
Outlook
On May 29, 2025, USD strength (DXY at 100.30) pressures AUD/USD (0.6410) and NZD/USD (0.5935), while lifting USD/JPY (145.91) and GBP/JPY (195.85). Gold ($3,295) weakens, silver ($33.20) holds, and WTI ($61.15) steadies. Q1 GDP, PCE, and Tokyo CPI data will drive volatility, with tariff relief and geopolitical risks in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on May 28, 2025, are driven by robust US economic data, ongoing US fiscal concerns, and central bank policy expectations. The US Dollar (DXY at 99.70) reaches a weekly high, bolstered by strong Consumer Confidence (98.0) and Durable Goods Orders (-6.3% vs. -7.9% expected), though Fed rate-cut bets and Trump’s $4T tax bill temper gains. AUD/USD slides to 0.6440 despite steady Australian CPI (2.4% YoY), while GBP/USD dips to 1.3480 but retains a bullish outlook. JPY weakens, pushing USD/JPY above 144.00, influenced by Japan’s bond yield management. Gold falls below $3,300, and WTI crude holds at $61.20. FOMC minutes, US GDP, and PCE data are key catalysts this week.
Current Level: DXY trades near 99.70, up 0.2%, a weekly top.
Market Dynamics: Strong US Consumer Confidence (98.0 vs. 86.0) and Durable Goods Orders (-6.3% vs. -7.9%) bolster USD, easing recession fears. US fiscal concerns (Trump’s $4T tax bill) and Fed rate-cut bets (two 25 bps cuts in 2025) limit gains. FOMC minutes (today), Prelim Q1 GDP (Thursday), and PCE Price Index (Friday) will shape USD direction. US-EU tariff delay (July 9) supports risk sentiment.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 100.00; support at 99.45. RSI near 50 suggests cautious bullishness, with FOMC minutes critica
Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6440, down 0.3%.
Market Dynamics: Australian CPI steady at 2.4% YoY (vs. 2.3% expected) supports AUD, but RBA’s dovish stance (65% chance of July cut) caps gains. USD strength and Japan’s bond yield cuts (10-year US Treasury at 4.46%) pressure AUD. China’s 3% YoY industrial profit growth aids risk sentiment, but Darwin Port tensions add volatility. FOMC minutes and US data are key.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6537; support at 0.6430. RSI above 50 favors bulls, but 9-day EMA break signals caution.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3480, down 0.3%.
Key Drivers: USD strength and strong US data (Consumer Confidence at 98.0) weigh on GBP, despite hot UK CPI (3.5% YoY) reducing BoE rate-cut bets (38 bps in 2025). US-EU tariff delay boosts risk tone, capping GBP losses. FOMC minutes and US PCE data will drive USD, with BoE’s June meeting in focus.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3560; support at 1.3391. Bullish RSI near 60 targets 1.3749.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 144.10, up 0.7%.
Market Dynamics: Japan’s Finance Minister’s plan to curb JGB yield spikes weakens JPY. BoJ’s hawkish outlook (Ueda’s 2% target) and strong Services PPI (3.1% YoY) limit losses, but USD strength and risk-on mood (US-EU tariff delay) lift USD/JPY. Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Gaza) support safe-haven demand. FOMC minutes and Tokyo CPI (Friday) are pivotal.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 145.00; support at 143.65. Positive RSI supports upside, with 145.40 as a target.
Current Level: WTI crude trades near $61.20, flat.
Market Dynamics: US-EU tariff delay and Gaza tensions support WTI, but OPEC+ output hike concerns (+411,000 bpd for July) and US-Iran nuclear talk progress cap gains. EIA inventory build (+1.328M barrels) adds bearish pressure. OPEC+ meeting (May 31) and US data (GDP, PCE) will drive direction.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $62.00; support at $60.00. Neutral RSI near 50 awaits OPEC+ clarity.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,295, down 0.1%.
Market Dynamics: USD strength and positive risk tone (US-EU tariff delay) pressure gold. US fiscal concerns (Moody’s Aa1 downgrade) and geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Gaza ceasefire doubts) limit losses. Fed rate-cut bets support XAU/USD. FOMC minutes and US PCE data are key, with Chinese gold purchases as a tailwind.
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,245; resistance at $3,340. RSI above 50 suggests limited downside, with $3,400 in view.
Today’s Data: FOMC minutes (today) are critical for Fed rate-cut clarity (74% chance for September). US Prelim Q1 GDP (Thursday), PCE Price Index (Friday), and Tokyo CPI (Friday) will shape USD and JPY. RBNZ’s expected 25 bps cut to 3.25% (today) may impact NZD.
Geopolitical Developments: Russia’s refusal of Ukraine ceasefire talks and Gaza ceasefire rejections boost safe-haven JPY, gold, and silver. US-Iran nuclear talks progress cautiously, affecting WTI.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T tax bill, pending Senate vote, raises deficit fears (Moody’s projects 134% debt-to-GDP by 2035). Fed’s cautious stance (stagflation risks) persists.
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-EU tariff delay (July 9) and US-China truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) ease tensions, but Huawei chip restrictions strain relations. China’s 3% industrial profit growth supports AUD. Australia-China Darwin Port tensions add volatility.
Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine escalation, Gaza conflicts, and US-Iran talk uncertainties drive safe-haven flows.
Outlook
On May 28, 2025, USD strength (DXY at 99.70) pressures AUD/USD (0.6440), GBP/USD (1.3480), and EUR/USD (1.1310), while lifting USD/JPY (144.10). Gold ($3,295) dips, WTI ($61.20) steadies, and silver ($33.15) holds firm. FOMC minutes, US GDP, PCE data, and RBNZ’s rate decision will drive volatility, with US fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on May 27, 2025, are navigating a complex landscape of US fiscal concerns, central bank policy divergence, and geopolitical tensions. The US Dollar (DXY at 98.80) remains under pressure near a one-month low due to fears surrounding Trump’s $3.8T tax bill and a Moody’s credit downgrade, lifting AUD/USD to 0.6490 and GBP/USD to a 39-month high near 1.3570. Strong Japanese inflation data (Services PPI at 3.1%) and hawkish BoJ signals propel the Yen, pushing USD/JPY to a one-month low of 142.38. WTI crude steadies at $61.25 amid OPEC+ output concerns, while gold holds at $3,340 and silver at $33.20, supported by safe-haven demand. Key US data releases, including Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, and upcoming FOMC minutes, alongside the RBNZ rate decision, will drive market volatility.
Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6490, down 0.1%, after hitting a six-month high of 0.6537.
Market Dynamics: China’s Industrial Profits rose 3% YoY in April, up from 2.6%, supporting AUD due to strong trade ties, but RBA’s dovish stance (25 bps cut to 3.85%) caps gains. USD weakens (DXY at 98.80) amid US fiscal concerns (Trump’s $3.8T tax bill) and Moody’s Aa1 downgrade. US-EU tariff delay (July 9) and US-China trade truce bolster risk sentiment. US Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence (today) are key, with Australia-China Darwin Port tensions adding volatility.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6537; support at 0.6456 (9-day EMA). Bullish RSI above 50 favors upside to 0.6687.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3570, up 0.1%, close to a 39-month high of 1.3593.
Key Drivers: Hot UK CPI (3.5% YoY) and Retail Sales reduce BoE rate-cut bets (38 bps in 2025), lifting GBP. USD weakens due to US fiscal deficit fears and US-EU tariff delay (July 9). FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and US PCE Price Index (Friday) will shape Fed rate-cut expectations (74% chance for September). BoE’s June meeting remains critical.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3632; support at 1.3451. Bullish RSI above 60 targets 1.3723, per X posts.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 142.38, down 0.3%, a one-month low.
Market Dynamics: Japan’s Services PPI rose 3.1% YoY, reinforcing BoJ rate-hike bets (Ueda’s 2% target focus), boosting JPY. Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Gaza) and US-Japan trade optimism enhance safe-haven demand. USD slumps on fiscal concerns (Moody’s projects 134% debt-to-GDP by 2035) and dovish Fed signals. Tokyo CPI (Friday) and US data (Durable Goods, PCE) are pivotal.
Technical Outlook: Support at 142.00; resistance at 143.00. Bearish RSI below 50 eyes 141.00.
Current Level: NZD/USD trades near 0.6000, up 0.2%.
Key Drivers: USD weakness and US-EU trade truce support NZD, but RBNZ’s expected 25 bps cut to 3.25% (Wednesday) may cap gains. US fiscal concerns (Trump’s tax bill) and Fed caution (Kashkari’s stagflation warning) pressure USD. US Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders (today) will influence sentiment, with RBNZ’s OCR outlook critical.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6050; support at 0.5950. Bullish RSI above 50 suggests upside potential.
Current Level: WTI crude trades near $61.25, flat.
Market Dynamics: US-EU tariff delay and Gaza tensions support WTI, but OPEC+ output hike concerns (+411,000 bpd for July) and US-Iran nuclear talk progress cap gains. EIA inventory build (+1.328M barrels) adds bearish pressure. OPEC+ meeting (May 31) and US Durable Goods Orders (today) are key. Fed’s cautious stance impacts USD and oil.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $62.00; support at $60.00. Neutral RSI near 50 awaits OPEC+ clarity.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,340, up 0.2%.
Key Drivers: US fiscal concerns (Moody’s downgrade) and geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Gaza) support safe-haven demand, offsetting US-EU trade optimism. Fed rate-cut bets and USD weakness bolster XAU/USD. FOMC minutes and US PCE data will drive direction, with Chinese gold purchases as a tailwind.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3,346; support at $3,260. Bullish RSI above 50 eyes $3,400.
Today’s Data: US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will influence USD. FOMC minutes (Wednesday), US Prelim Q1 GDP (Thursday), and PCE Price Index (Friday) are critical for Fed rate-cut timing. Tokyo CPI (Friday) will shape BoJ expectations. RBNZ’s rate decision (Wednesday) is key for NZD.
Geopolitical Developments: Russia’s drone attack on Ukraine and Gaza strikes (38 killed) boost safe-haven JPY, gold, and silver. US-Iran nuclear talks show tentative progress, impacting WTI.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $3.8T tax bill, pending Senate vote, raises deficit fears (Moody’s projects 9% GDP deficit by 2035). Fed officials (Kashkari, Goolsbee) highlight stagflation risks.
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-EU tariff delay (July 9) and US-Japan trade talks (G7 target) ease tensions. US-China truce faces strain from Huawei chip restrictions, with China’s 3% industrial profit growth signaling resilience. Australia-China Darwin Port lease tensions add AUD volatility.
Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine war escalation, Gaza operations, and US-Iran talk uncertainties drive safe-haven flows.
Outlook
On May 27, 2025, USD weakness (DXY at 98.80) lifts AUD/USD (0.6490), GBP/USD (1.3570), and NZD/USD (0.6000), while pressuring USD/JPY (142.38). WTI ($61.25) steadies, with gold ($3,340) and silver ($33.20) supported by safe-haven demand. US data, FOMC minutes, and RBNZ’s rate decision will drive volatility, with US fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on May 26, 2025, are driven by US fiscal concerns, central bank policy divergence, and easing trade tensions. The US Dollar (DXY at 99.70) hits a one-month low amid deficit fears from Trump’s $4T tax bill, lifting GBP/USD to a multi-year high above 1.3550 and pressuring USD/CAD below 1.3700. Japanese Yen strengthens (USD/JPY near 142.70) on BoJ rate-hike bets and US-Japan trade optimism. WTI crude holds above $61.50, while gold dips to $3,335 on reduced trade war fears. US Durable Goods Orders and FOMC minutes are key this week.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,335, down 0.4%.
Market Dynamics: Easing US-EU trade fears (tariff delay) reduce safe-haven demand, pressuring gold. US fiscal concerns (Moody’s downgrade) and Fed rate-cut bets support XAU/USD. Russia-Ukraine escalation and Gaza tensions limit losses. FOMC minutes and US PCE data are key, with Chinese gold purchases as a tailwind.
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,260; resistance at $3,346. Bullish RSI above 50 favors upside to $3,400.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 142.70, down 0.2%, with JPY at a monthly high.
Market Dynamics: Hot Japanese CPI (3.6% YoY) and BoJ rate-hike bets (Uchida’s hawkish stance) bolster JPY. US-Japan trade deal hopes (Ishiba’s G7 target) and geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Gaza) enhance safe-haven demand. USD weakens due to US fiscal concerns (Moody’s Aa1 downgrade) and dovish Fed expectations (two cuts in 2025). Tokyo CPI (Friday) and G7 trade talks are focal points.
Technical Outlook: Support at 142.00; resistance at 143.10. Bearish RSI below 50 favors downside to 141.00.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3560, a February 2022 high, up 0.3%.
Key Drivers: Strong UK Retail Sales and hot April CPI (3.5% YoY) reduce BoE rate-cut bets, boosting GBP. USD weakens amid US deficit fears ($4T tax bill) and Fed rate-cut expectations (74% chance for September). FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and US PCE Price Index (Friday) will shape USD sentiment, with BoE’s June meeting in focus.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3632; support at 1.3451. Bullish RSI above 60 signals momentum, with 1.3723 as a target
Current Level: USD/CAD trades near 1.3690, a YTD low, down 0.3%.
Market Dynamics: USD selling persists due to US fiscal concerns and dovish Fed signals. Hot Canadian CPI reduces BoC June rate-cut odds, supporting CAD despite softer WTI ($61.50). Canadian Retail Sales (today) and US Durable Goods Orders (Tuesday) are key. Easing US-EU trade tensions (tariff delay to July 9) add CAD support.
Technical Outlook: Support at 1.3600; resistance at 1.3800. Bearish RSI below 50 suggests further downside to 1.3500.
Current Level: WTI crude trades near $61.50, up 0.2%.
Market Dynamics: Easing US-EU trade tensions (tariff delay to July 9) and Gaza escalation fears support WTI. OPEC+ output hike concerns (+411,000 bpd for July) and EIA inventory build (+1.328M barrels) cap gains. US-Iran nuclear talks (limited progress) sustain supply risks. US Durable Goods Orders and FOMC minutes will influence USD and oil.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $62.00; support at $60.00. RSI above 50 suggests cautious bullishness, per Reuters.
Current Level: EUR/USD trades near 1.1315, up 0.1%.
Key Drivers: USD weakness and lower Treasury yields (30-year at 5.03%) lift EUR, despite weak Eurozone PMI (Composite 49.5). German Q1 GDP (flat) and ECB’s dovish signals (Vujčić’s 2% target by 2026) cap gains.
Trump’s EU tariff delay (July 9) reduces trade war fears, supporting EUR. FOMC minutes and US PCE data will drive direction.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.1425; support at 1.1200. RSI near 57 maintains bullish bias, with US data critical.
Today’s Data: Canadian Retail Sales and US Durable Goods Orders (Tuesday) kick off a data-heavy week. US Prelim GDP (Thursday), PCE Price Index (Friday), and FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will shape Fed rate-cut expectations (74% chance for September). Tokyo CPI (Friday) will influence BoJ rate-hike bets.
Geopolitical Developments: Russia’s massive Ukraine attack and Gaza strikes (38 killed) boost safe-haven JPY, gold, and silver. US-Iran nuclear talk uncertainties and US sanctions threats add volatility.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T tax bill, passed by the House, awaits Senate approval, raising deficit fears (Moody’s projects 134% debt-to-GDP by 2035).
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-EU tariff delay (July 9) and US-Japan trade optimism (Ishiba’s G7 goal) ease trade war fears. US-China truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) faces strain from Huawei chip restrictions, with China’s Li Qiang signaling new policy tools, including “unconventional measures.”
Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine escalation, Gaza operations, and US-Iran talk uncertainties drive safe-haven flows.
Outlook
On May 26, 2025, USD weakness (DXY at 99.70) lifts GBP/USD (1.3560) and EUR/USD (1.1315), while pressuring USD/CAD (1.3690) and USD/JPY (142.70). WTI ($61.50) gains on geopolitical risks, but gold ($3,335) dips on trade optimism. Silver ($33.15) holds steady. US data (Durable Goods, GDP, PCE), FOMC minutes, and Tokyo CPI will drive volatility, with US fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on May 23, 2025, are navigating US fiscal concerns, central bank policy divergence, and geopolitical uncertainties. The US Dollar (DXY at 99.70) weakens amid deficit fears from Trump’s $3.8T tax bill, lifting EUR/USD above 1.1310 and pressuring USD/CAD to a two-week low near 1.3825. Hot Japanese CPI (3.6% YoY) bolsters JPY, driving USD/JPY below 143.50. WTI crude dips to $60.75 on OPEC+ output hike concerns, while gold holds near $3,300 and silver rises to $33.10 on safe-haven demand. Canadian Retail Sales and US New Home Sales data are in focus today.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,300, flat.
Market Dynamics: Safe-haven demand from US fiscal concerns (Moody’s Aa1 downgrade) and Gaza tensions supports gold, per FXStreet. USD weakness and Fed rate-cut bets (two cuts in 2025) bolster XAU/USD, but US PMI strength (52.1) caps gains. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire doubts (Trump’s shift) add geopolitical support. US New Home Sales and Fed speeches are key catalysts.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3,346; support at $3,260. Bullish oscillators favor upside to $3,400.
Current Level: USD/CAD trades near 1.3825, a two-week low, down 0.2%.
Market Dynamics: US fiscal concerns (Trump’s $3.8T tax bill) and dovish Fed expectations (two rate cuts in 2025) weaken USD, per FXStreet. Hot Canadian CPI (core up) reduces BoC June rate-cut odds, bolstering CAD. WTI crude ($60.75) stabilizes, but OPEC+ output hike fears cap CAD gains. Canadian Retail Sales (today) and US New Home Sales will drive sentiment, with Fed speeches (Waller) adding USD volatility.
Technical Outlook: Support at 1.3800; resistance at 1.3900. Bearish RSI below 50 favors downside, with 1.3600 in sight.
Current Level: EUR/USD trades near 1.1310, up 0.3%.
Key Drivers: USD weakens as 30-year Treasury yields fall to 5.03% from 5.15%, per FXStreet. Trump’s pressure on EU tariffs and US fiscal deficit concerns lift EUR. Weak Eurozone PMI (Composite 49.5) caps gains, with German Q1 GDP (today) critical. ECB’s dovish stance (Vujčić’s 2% target by 2026) contrasts with Fed caution (Waller’s H2 cut signal). US PMI strength (Composite 52.1) supports USD recovery.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.1425; support at 1.1200. RSI at 57.45 maintains bullish bias, with GDP data key.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 143.20, down 0.4%.
Market Dynamics: Hot Japanese CPI (3.6% YoY, core 3.5%) reinforces BoJ rate-hike bets, boosting JPY, per FXStreet. US fiscal concerns and dovish Fed signals (74% chance of September cut) weaken USD. US-Japan trade deal hopes limit JPY gains, but Gaza tensions and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire doubts (Trump’s warning) add safe-haven demand. Fed speeches and G7 FX talks are focal points.
Technical Outlook: Support at 143.00; resistance at 144.40. Bearish oscillators signal further downside to 142.40.
Current Level: WTI crude trades near $60.75, down 0.3%.
Market Dynamics: OPEC+ output hike plans (+411,000 bpd in May, 2.2M bpd by November) pressure WTI, per Reuters via FXStreet. EIA inventory build (+1.328M barrels vs. -1.85M expected) adds bearish sentiment. US-Iran nuclear talks (today in Rome) and Israel-Iran strike fears balance oversupply concerns. US PMI strength (52.1) supports demand outlook, with Fed speeches impacting USD.
Technical Outlook: Support at $60.00; resistance at $61.26 (50-day SMA). RSI below 50 favors bears, with EIA data critical.
Current Level: Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $33.10, up 0.3%.
Key Drivers: Safe-haven demand offsets US fiscal deficit concerns impacting industrial demand (photovoltaics), per FXStreet. Moody’s downgrade and Trump’s $3.8T bill weaken USD, supporting silver. China’s solar capacity growth (1,500 GW) and Europe’s 30% solar output rise bolster demand. US PMI strength and Fed speeches will drive sentiment.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $33.50; support at $32.00. RSI near 50 suggests neutrality, with US data in focus.
Today’s Data: Canadian Retail Sales and US New Home Sales (today) will influence CAD and USD. German Q1 GDP and ECB speeches (Vujčić, Nagel) drive EUR sentiment. US PMI (Composite 52.1) and Jobless Claims (227K) signal resilience, with Fed speeches (Waller, others) shaping rate-cut expectations (74% chance for September).
Geopolitical Developments: Israel-Iran nuclear talk uncertainties, Gaza aid blockades, and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire doubts (Trump’s warning) boost safe-haven JPY, gold, and silver. US-China chip tensions (Huawei restrictions) strain trade truce.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $3.8T tax bill, passed by the House, heads to the Senate, raising deficit fears (Moody’s projects 134% debt-to-GDP by 2035). Fed’s cautious stance (Waller’s H2 cut signal) adds USD pressure.
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-China 90-day tariff truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) faces strain from Huawei chip restrictions, with China threatening legal action, per FXStreet. Trump’s EU tariff pressure and US-Japan trade talks add volatility. ECB’s Nagel sees EU-US progress.
Geopolitical Tensions: Israel-Iran nuclear risks, Gaza escalations, and Russia-Ukraine truce doubts drive safe-haven flows, per WSJ via FXStreet. US-Iran talks (today) could impact WTI.
Outlook
On May 23, 2025, USD weakness (DXY at 99.70) lifts EUR/USD (1.1310) and AUD/USD (0.6430), while pressuring USD/CAD (1.3825) and USD/JPY (143.20). WTI ($60.75) faces OPEC+ output hike pressure, with gold ($3,300) and silver ($33.10) supported by safe-haven demand. Canadian Retail Sales, US New Home Sales, and Fed speeches will drive volatility, with US fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on May 22, 2025, are shaped by persistent US fiscal concerns, mixed economic data, and geopolitical uncertainties. Hot UK inflation (3.5% YoY) lifts GBP/USD near a three-year high, while weak Eurozone PMI data (Composite 49.5) pressures EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. The US Dollar (DXY at 99.70) stabilizes after a three-day slide, with US PMI and G7 trade headlines in focus. WTI crude holds above $62.50 amid Middle East tensions, and silver remains steady at $33.37. Fed caution and BoJ hawkishness drive currency dynamics.
Current Level: EUR/GBP trades near 0.8450, up after UK CPI data.
Market Dynamics: UK CPI (3.5% YoY vs. 3.3% expected) and Services CPI (5.4% vs. 4.8%) signal persistent inflation, reducing BoE rate-cut bets for 2025, per Danske Bank. This pressures GBP, lifting EUR/GBP despite weak Eurozone PMI (Composite 49.5). ECB’s June rate-cut odds (90%) cap EUR gains. US fiscal worries (Trump’s $3.8T tax bill) weaken USD, indirectly supporting EUR. G7 talks and ECB speeches (Cipollone, Knot) are key.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.8500; support at 0.8400. RSI near 50 suggests consolidation, with UK data driving sentiment.
Current Level: EUR/USD trades near 1.1310, down 0.2%.
Market Dynamics: Weak Eurozone PMI (Services 48.9, Composite 49.5) signals contraction, pressuring EUR, per FXStreet. USD stabilizes (DXY at 99.70) post-Moody’s downgrade, with US PMI (13:45 GMT) expected to show steady growth. UOB Group notes EUR/USD’s upward bias above the 55-day EMA (1.1050), but a retest of 1.1573 is premature. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire doubts (Trump’s warning) and ECB rate-cut signals (Centeno’s 1.5-2% target) weigh on EUR.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.1425; support at 1.1200. RSI at 57.45 supports bullish bias, with US PMI critical.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3410, off its 3-year high of 1.3468.
Key Drivers: Mixed UK PMI (Manufacturing 45.1, Services 50.2) tempers GBP gains post-CPI (3.5% YoY), per FXStreet. USD strengthens slightly as House approves Trump’s tax bill ($3.8T debt increase), raising deficit fears. BoE’s cautious outlook (stagflation risks) supports GBP, but US PMI and Fed comments (Dimon’s stagflation warning) drive USD. G7 trade talks may add volatility.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3468; support at 1.3300. RSI above 60 maintains bullish momentum, with US data key.
Current Level: EUR/JPY trades near 162.00, down 0.5%.
Key Drivers: Weak Eurozone PMI (Composite 49.5) pressures EUR, but JPY’s safe-haven demand rises amid US fiscal concerns (Moody’s downgrade) and Middle East tensions, per FXStreet. BoJ’s rate-hike bets (Uchida’s hawkish stance) bolster JPY, with US-Japan trade talks looming. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire uncertainty adds JPY support. ECB’s dovish signals cap EUR upside.
Technical Outlook: Support at 162.00; resistance at 163.00. Bearish RSI below 50 favors downside, with trade talks pivotal.
Current Level: WTI crude trades near $62.60, slightly down.
Market Dynamics: Israel-Iran nuclear strike fears sustain oil prices, despite API’s +2.49M barrel build. EIA inventory data (today) will influence direction. Kazakhstan’s output rise (+2%) pressures OPEC+ quotas, while US-China chip tensions add volatility. Fed’s cautious stance (Dimon’s warning) and G7 trade headlines impact USD, affecting oil.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $63.50; support at $61.50. RSI above 60 suggests bullish bias, with EIA data crucial.
Current Level: Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $33.37, flat.
Market Dynamics: Silver holds steady as safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions balances US fiscal concerns, per FXStreet. Gold/silver ratio (99.31) reflects gold’s outperformance ($3,300). Fed rate-cut bets (two cuts in 2025) and USD weakness support silver, but Eurozone PMI weakness caps gains. US PMI and G7 outcomes are focal points.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $33.50; support at $32.00. RSI near 50 indicates neutrality, with US data driving sentiment.
Today’s Data: US S&P Global PMI (13:45 GMT) is expected to show steady expansion, supporting USD. Eurozone PMI (Composite 49.5, Services 48.9) signals contraction, pressuring EUR. UK PMI (Manufacturing 45.1, Services 50.2) reflects mixed growth, with CPI (3.5% YoY) reducing BoE rate-cut bets. ECB speeches and G7 trade talks (Canada) are key.
Geopolitical Developments: Israel-Iran risks, Gaza escalations, and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire doubts (Trump’s shift) boost safe-haven JPY and gold. US-China chip tensions (Huawei ban) strain trade truce, impacting markets.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s tax bill ($3.8T debt increase) and Moody’s downgrade (Aa1) raise deficit fears, pressuring USD and Treasuries, per ING. Fed’s cautious stance (Dimon’s stagflation warning) adds uncertainty.
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-China 90-day tariff truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) faces strain from US chip restrictions (Huawei), with China accusing the US of bullying. US-Japan trade talks and G7 FX discussions (Bessent’s absence) add volatility. ECB’s Nagel sees progress in EU-US talks.
Geopolitical Tensions: Israel-Iran nuclear risks, Gaza operations, and Russia-Ukraine truce doubts drive JPY, gold, and oil, per WSJ.
Outlook
On May 22, 2025, UK CPI lifts EUR/GBP (0.8450) and GBP/USD (1.3410), while weak Eurozone PMI pressures EUR/USD (1.1310) and EUR/JPY (162.00). WTI ($62.60) holds firm on Middle East risks, and silver ($33.37) stays flat. US PMI, G7 trade headlines, and Fed speeches will drive volatility, with US fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on May 21, 2025, are driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and central bank policy expectations. Israel’s potential strike on Iranian nuclear sites lifts WTI crude above $62.70 and boosts gold to a two-week high near $3,300. Hot UK CPI data (3.5% YoY) propels GBP/USD to a three-year high at 1.3470, while JPY strength pressures USD/JPY to a two-week low near 143.50. The US Dollar weakens (DXY at 99.45) post-Moody’s downgrade, supporting EUR/USD gains. Fed speeches and EIA oil inventory data are key catalysts today.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,300, a one-and-a-half-week high.
Market Dynamics: Geopolitical risks (Israel-Iran tensions, Gaza offensive) and US-China trade frictions revive safe-haven demand, lifting gold. Moody’s US credit downgrade (Aa1) and Fed rate-cut bets (two cuts in 2025) weaken USD, supporting XAU/USD. Soft US CPI (2.3% YoY) and PPI (-0.5% MoM) reinforce dovish Fed outlook. Fed speeches and Middle East developments are critical.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3,360; support at $3,285. Bullish oscillators favor upside, with $3,400 in sight.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3470, a three-year high.
Key Drivers: Hot UK CPI (3.5% YoY, core 3.8%) reduces BoE rate-cut bets, boosting GBP. USD weakness post-Moody’s downgrade and Fed concerns (stagflation risks) lift the pair. UK Services CPI (5.4%) signals persistent inflation, with BoE’s June meeting in focus. Fed speeches and US fiscal worries (Trump’s $3-5T tax bill) drive sentiment.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3750; support at 1.3300. RSI above 60 signals strong bullish momentum.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 143.50, a two-week low.
Key Drivers: JPY strengthens on BoJ rate-hike bets (Uchida’s hawkish stance) and safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions. Japan’s trade deficit (¥115.8B) and US-Japan trade talk optimism limit gains. USD slumps (DXY at 99.45) post-Moody’s downgrade and dovish Fed signals. Fed speeches and G7 FX talks are focal points.
Technical Outlook: Support at 143.25; resistance at 144.55. Bearish oscillators suggest further downside to 143.00.
Current Level: EUR/USD trades near 1.1330, up 0.42%.
Market Dynamics: USD weakness post-Moody’s downgrade and soft US data (PPI -0.5% MoM) lift EUR. ECB rate-cut bets (90% chance for June) cap gains, despite stable Eurozone Q1 GDP (0.3% QoQ). ECB speeches (De Guindos, Lane) and Middle East risks influence sentiment, with US fiscal concerns adding USD pressure.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.1382; support at 1.1211. RSI above 50 supports bullish bias.
Current Level: WTI crude trades near $62.70, a one-month high.
Key Drivers: Israel’s planned Iran strike raises supply disruption fears (Strait of Hormuz risk), boosting oil prices. API inventory build (+2.49M barrels vs. -1.85M expected) caps gains, with EIA data due today. Kazakhstan’s output rise (+2%) defies OPEC+ quotas. US-China chip tensions add volatility, with Fed speeches impacting USD.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $63.50; support at $61.50. RSI above 60 signals bullish momentum.
Current Level: USD/CAD trades near 1.3870, a two-week low.
Market Dynamics: Rising WTI prices and hot Canadian CPI (core up) bolster CAD, reducing BoC rate-cut bets. USD weakness post-Moody’s downgrade and Fed concerns (stagflation) pressure USD/CAD. Israel-Iran risks support oil-linked CAD, with EIA data and Fed speeches as catalysts.
Technical Outlook: Support at 1.3800; resistance at 1.4000. Bearish oscillators favor downside.
Today’s Data: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change follows API’s +2.49M barrel build, impacting WTI. No major US data, but Fed speeches (Hammack, Musalem, Bostic) will clarify rate-cut timing (74% chance for September). UK CPI (3.5% YoY) and ECB speeches (De Guindos, Lane) drive GBP and EUR sentiment.
Geopolitical Developments: Israel-Iran nuclear strike fears, Gaza offensive, and faltering Russia-Ukraine talks (Trump’s push) boost safe-haven assets. US-China chip tensions (Huawei ban) revive trade concerns.
China Data: Deflation persists (CPI -0.1% YoY, PPI -2.7% YoY), with a $96.18B trade surplus (8.1% YoY export growth) impacting AUD and NZD.
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-China 90-day tariff truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) is strained by US chip restrictions (Huawei), with China accusing the US of bullying. US-Japan trade talks (Washington) and G7 FX discussions add volatility.
Geopolitical Tensions: Israel-Iran risks, Gaza operations, and India-Pakistan tensions drive JPY, gold, and oil, despite Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes.
Outlook
On May 21, 2025, geopolitical risks lift WTI ($62.70) and gold ($3,300), while hot UK CPI propels GBP/USD (1.3470). JPY strength drives USD/JPY (143.50) lower, with EUR/USD (1.1330) and USD/CAD (1.3870) reflecting USD weakness (DXY at 99.45). EIA data, Fed speeches, and Middle East developments will shape volatility, with central bank policies and US fiscal concerns in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on May 20, 2025, are driven by central bank actions and geopolitical developments, with focus on the RBA’s press conference post-rate cut, PBoC’s LPR reduction, and potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks. The US Dollar weakens (DXY at 100.60) after Moody’s downgrade, lifting GBP/USD and NZD/USD, while AUD/JPY softens amid JPY strength. Gold and silver face pressure, with Fed rate-cut bets (September start) and US data in focus.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,200, down from recent highs.
Market Dynamics: Optimism over Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks and US-China trade truce (90-day tariff pause) reduces safe-haven demand, pressuring gold. Moody’s US credit downgrade (Aa1) and softer US data (CPI 2.3% YoY, PPI -0.5% MoM) boost Fed rate-cut bets, capping USD strength but failing to lift gold. Geopolitical risks (Gaza offensive) offer limited support. Fed speeches today are key.
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,178; resistance at $3,252. Bearish oscillators signal downside, with $3,120 as a target.
Current Level: AUD/JPY trades near 93.00, down 0.55%.
Key Drivers: RBA’s 25 bps rate cut to 3.85% weakens AUD, with Governor Bullock’s press conference (05:30 GMT) critical for guidance on global trade risks. BoJ’s hawkish stance (Uchida’s rate-hike comments) and Japan’s PPI pressures bolster JPY. US-China trade optimism caps JPY gains, with RBA’s tone and Fed speeches as catalysts.
Technical Outlook: Support at 92.50; resistance at 94.00. RSI below 50 favors bears, with press conference pivotal.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3360, up for the second day.
Key Drivers: USD weakness post-Moody’s downgrade (Aa1) and soft US data (PPI -0.5% MoM, Retail Sales +0.1%) lift GBP. Strong UK GDP (1% projected) and steady unemployment (4.5%) reduce BoE easing bets. UK CPI (Wednesday, core 3.6% YoY expected) will shape BoE policy views, with Fed speeches influencing USD.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3400; support at 1.3300. RSI above 50 signals bullish momentum, with CPI key.
Current Level: NZD/USD trades near 0.5920, slightly down.
Market Dynamics: PBoC’s LPR cut (1-year to 3.00%) pressures NZD due to New Zealand’s trade ties with China. Q1 producer price spikes signal inflation, supporting NZD, but Russia-Ukraine ceasefire optimism weighs. Moody’s US downgrade weakens USD, aiding NZD/USD. RBA’s rate cut and press conference are focal points.
Technical Outlook: Support at 0.5900; resistance at 0.6000. RSI near 50 suggests consolidation, with RBA tone critical.
Current Level: Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $32.20, down for the third day.
Market Dynamics: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks reduce safe-haven demand, pressuring silver. Moody’s US downgrade and Fed rate-cut bets (two cuts in 2025) limit losses, but risk-on sentiment dominates. US data (CPI 2.3% YoY) and Fed speeches drive sentiment, with Middle East tensions offering minor support.
Technical Outlook: Support at $32.00; resistance at $32.50. Bearish RSI below 50 signals downside, with $30.00 in view.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 144.80, below 145.00.
Key Drivers: JPY strengthens on BoJ rate-hike bets (Uchida’s hawkish comments) and Japan’s inflation pressures. USD weakens post-Moody’s downgrade and dovish Fed signals (74% chance of September cut). Russia-Ukraine talks cap JPY’s safe-haven demand, with Fed speeches and G7 FX talks (Bessent absent) as catalysts.
Technical Outlook: Support at 144.65; resistance at 146.00. Bearish oscillators favor downside, with 144.00 as a target.
Today’s Data: No major US data releases, but Fed speeches (Bostic, Jefferson, Kashkari, Williams) will shape rate-cut expectations (two cuts priced in). UK CPI (Wednesday) and US UoM Consumer Sentiment (last week: 53.4 expected) remain in focus. Australian jobs (+89,000) and RBA’s rate cut influence AUD sentiment.
Geopolitical Developments: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks (Trump’s announcement) and Gaza escalations (Israeli offensive) reduce safe-haven flows, though Middle East risks persist. US-Iran nuclear talks add optimism.
China Data: PBoC’s LPR cut (3.00%) and mixed April data (strong industrial output, weak retail sales) pressure NZD and AUD. Trade surplus ($96.18 billion) reflects slower export growth (8.1% YoY).
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-China 90-day tariff truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) and chipmaker blacklist concerns sustain risk-on sentiment, but uncertainties linger. US-UK deal (10% tariffs) supports GBP.
Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine talks and US-Iran nuclear optimism reduce JPY and gold demand, while Gaza operations and India-Pakistan risks maintain some safe-haven interest.
Outlook
On May 20, 2025, USD weakness (DXY at 100.60) lifts GBP/USD (1.3360) and NZD/USD (0.5920), while JPY strength pressures AUD/JPY (93.00) and USD/JPY (144.80). Gold ($3,200) and silver ($32.20) face downside amid ceasefire optimism. RBA’s press conference, Fed speeches, and UK CPI will drive volatility, with geopolitical risks and US data in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on May 16, 2025, are reacting to softer US economic data (PPI, CPI) and anticipation for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, boosting expectations for Fed rate cuts (September favored). The US Dollar weakens (DXY at 100.60), supporting GBP/USD and EUR/USD gains, while AUD/USD holds steady despite bearish technicals. Gold struggles to recover, and USD/JPY softens as JPY gains. Geopolitical risks, including Middle East tensions and Russia-Ukraine talks, influence safe-haven flows.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,120, stalling recovery.
Market Dynamics: Softer US PPI (-0.5% MoM, 2.4% YoY) and CPI (2.3% YoY) fuel Fed rate-cut bets, lowering US Treasury yields and capping USD strength, which supports gold. However, risk-on sentiment from easing global tensions pressures safe-haven demand. Geopolitical risks (Gaza strikes, India-Pakistan) offer limited support. UoM Consumer Sentiment (expected 53.4) and Powell’s recent comments are key.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3,252; support at $3,120. Negative oscillators suggest downside, with $3,100 as a bearish target.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3310, supported by USD weakness.
Key Drivers: Strong UK GDP growth (1% projected) reduces BoE easing expectations, lifting GBP. Softer US PPI and steady Jobless Claims (229K) boost Fed rate-cut odds, weakening USD. UK Unemployment (4.5%) aligns with forecasts, supporting stability. UoM Consumer Sentiment and US housing data (Building Permits, Housing Starts) are focal points.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3350; support at 1.3250. RSI above 50 signals bullish momentum, with US data critical.
Current Level: EUR/USD trades near 1.1200, recovering losses.
Market Dynamics: USD weakness post-PPI (-0.5% MoM) and CPI (2.3% YoY) lifts EUR, despite ECB rate-cut signals (Villeroy’s comments). Eurozone Q1 GDP (0.3% QoQ) and Employment Change (+0.3%) align with expectations, stabilizing EUR. UoM Consumer Sentiment and US housing data will influence USD dynamics.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.1250; support at 1.1150. RSI near 50 suggests consolidation, with US data as a catalyst.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 145.40, down 0.21%.
Key Drivers: JPY gains from BoJ’s cautious stance (Nakamura’s comments on economic uncertainty) and persistent Japan PPI pressures, supporting rate-hike bets. Weaker USD (DXY at 100.60) and softer risk sentiment (equity declines) bolster JPY. US PPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment are key, with Middle East tensions aiding safe-haven flows.
Technical Outlook: Support at 145.35; resistance at 146.60. Negative oscillators favor bears, with 145.00 in sight.
Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6410, halting losses.
Market Dynamics: Strong Australian jobs (+89,000) and wage growth (+3.4% YoY) support AUD, despite RBA’s expected 25 bps cut to 3.85%. Weaker USD post-PPI and risk-on sentiment lift the pair, though China’s chipmaker blacklist concerns weigh. UoM Consumer Sentiment and US housing data will drive sentiment.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6417 (nine-day EMA); support at 0.6400. RSI above 50 maintains bullish bias, with US data pivotal.
Today’s Data: US UoM Consumer Sentiment (expected 53.4 vs. 52.2 prior), Building Permits, and Housing Starts are due. Softer PPI (-0.5% MoM) and CPI (2.3% YoY) reinforce Fed rate-cut expectations (74% chance for September). Australian jobs (+89,000) and steady unemployment (4.1%) bolster AUD.
Geopolitical Developments: Russia-Ukraine talks falter (Putin absent), Middle East escalations (Gaza deaths), and Iran’s nuclear proposal (no weapons for sanctions relief) sustain safe-haven demand, though risk-on sentiment dominates.
China Data: Deflation persists (CPI -0.1% YoY, PPI -2.7% YoY), with a $96.18 billion trade surplus (8.1% YoY export growth), impacting AUD.
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-China 90-day tariff truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) and “de minimis” tariff cut (120% to 54%) fuel risk-on sentiment, but Trump’s chipmaker blacklist risks tensions. US-UK deal (10% tariffs) supports GBP.
Geopolitical Tensions: Middle East violence (Gaza, Yemen) and India-Pakistan risks bolster JPY and gold, though optimism from US-Iran nuclear talks limits safe-haven flows.
Outlook
On May 16, 2025, softer US data lifts AUD/USD (0.6410), GBP/USD (1.3310), and EUR/USD (1.1200), while JPY strength pressures USD/JPY (145.40). Gold ($3,120) struggles, with USD (DXY at 100.60) vulnerable. UoM Consumer Sentiment, US housing data, and geopolitical risks will drive volatility, with Fed policy and global tensions in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Current Level: Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $31.90, extending losses.
Market Dynamics: US-China trade optimism and higher US yields pressure silver, mirroring gold’s decline. Softer USD offers limited support, with PPI and Powell’s speech driving sentiment. Geopolitical risks fail to lift safe-haven demand, as RSI signals growing bearish momentum.
Technical Outlook: Support at $28.00; resistance at $32.46 (nine-day EMA). Bearish RSI below 50 suggests further downside.
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