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On July 16, 2025, crude oil (WTI) drifts below the $66.00 mark as global supply concerns ease following a tempered stance from the White House regarding its 50-day deadline for Russia. The pullback comes after a period of elevated prices driven by geopolitical risk, but fading urgency is softening the outlook. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) pushes toward $38.00, supported by safe-haven flows. NZD/USD trades higher above 0.5950 as sentiment improves in Asia-Pacific markets, with the PBOC maintaining currency stability at 7.1526. Investors are also focused on the UK’s CPI data and the upcoming US PPI report for further macro direction.
Silver (XAG/USD) is climbing toward $38.00, building on recent gains as global investors seek safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and cautious sentiment ahead of key inflation data. The metal continues to benefit from macro instability, with the US Dollar showing mixed performance and real yields remaining subdued.
Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions persist despite the easing of some immediate trade concerns. Safe-haven demand remains elevated, fueling silver’s rally.
US Economic Data: Market participants await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could influence real yield expectations and impact precious metals.
FOMC Outcome: Recent Fed minutes indicate cautious optimism but no rush to cut rates aggressively. Uncertainty keeps support intact for non-yielding assets like silver.
Trade Policy: Lingering uncertainty surrounding global tariffs and cross-border frictions keeps risk aversion elevated, indirectly boosting silver’s appeal.
Monetary Policy: While expectations for Fed rate cuts have moderated, dovish undertones continue to support metals amid inflation and policy uncertainty.
Trend: Bullish continuation; silver extends rebound from $36.00 breakout zone.
Resistance: $37.60, then $38.00 and $38.35.
Support: $37.00, followed by $36.50 and $36.00.
Forecast: Silver may test $38.00 in the near term if US inflation data comes in softer; downside risk limited above $36.50.
Market Sentiment: Bullish bias remains intact, driven by ongoing macro uncertainty and technical strength.
Catalysts: US PPI release, Fed commentary, global risk tone, and bond market movements.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading below $66.00, retreating from recent highs as geopolitical supply risks begin to subside. Market reaction to Trump’s softened 50-day ultimatum to Russia has eased immediate fears of supply disruption, prompting traders to take profit after last week’s surge.
Geopolitical Risks: The tone around Trump’s Russia deadline has moderated, reducing the likelihood of near-term supply shocks and calming oil markets.
US Economic Data: Attention shifts to US PPI data for signs of inflationary trends, which could influence energy demand expectations and interest rate outlooks.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s cautious stance and delayed rate cuts could weigh on growth outlook, subtly dampening oil demand expectations.
Trade Policy: Uncertainty remains around broader trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, though direct oil trade implications are limited for now.
Monetary Policy: Stable Fed positioning and relatively strong USD have limited the upside for crude, especially as risk appetite fluctuates.
Trend: Short-term bearish; retreat from $67.30 confirms corrective pressure.
Resistance: $66.75, then $67.30 and $68.50.
Support: $65.00, then $64.20 and $63.00.
Forecast: WTI may range between $64.20–$66.75. A dovish inflation surprise or renewed geopolitical flare-up could spark another upside test.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to mildly bearish as supply worries ease and traders await further macro cues.
Catalysts: Trump’s future Russia stance, US inflation data (PPI), OPEC+ commentary, and weekly inventory reports.
NZD/USD is trading above 0.5950, maintaining bullish traction as investors digest positive risk sentiment ahead of the US PPI release. The pair benefits from a softer USD and improved risk appetite, supported in part by China’s stable GDP performance and ongoing expectations for a patient Fed.
Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical risks remain in the background, but easing trade and supply fears support broader market stability.
US Economic Data: Investors are focused on the upcoming US Producer Price Index report, which could influence Fed rate expectations and USD performance.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed remains cautious; the absence of hawkish surprises keeps pressure on the dollar and supports risk-linked currencies like the Kiwi.
Trade Policy: Global trade tensions are easing for now, aiding risk sentiment and demand for commodity-linked currencies such as NZD.
Trend: Mild bullish recovery, with higher lows forming since 0.5900.
Resistance: 0.5975, then 0.6000 and 0.6030.
Support: 0.5925, then 0.5900 and 0.5860.
Forecast: NZD/USD could challenge 0.6000 if the US PPI print comes in soft. Downside risks limited above 0.5900.
Market Sentiment: Bullish tilt as risk sentiment improves and USD weakens modestly.
Catalysts: US PPI, Chinese trade balance follow-up, and Fed commentary.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1526 on July 16, 2025, slightly higher than the previous fix of 7.1498. The move signals the central bank’s cautious stance amid global uncertainty and domestic growth challenges, as Beijing maintains tight control over the yuan’s daily midpoint to stabilize trade competitiveness.
Geopolitical Risks: Renewed global uncertainties, including energy supply and trade issues, keep the yuan in focus. However, tensions remain manageable for now.
US Economic Data: A stronger US dollar ahead of the PPI release places mild pressure on the yuan, though the PBOC fix aims to counter excess volatility.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed’s cautious tone provides room for emerging market currencies to stabilize. China’s central bank remains committed to stability rather than easing aggressively.
Trade Policy: With Trump’s latest tariff headlines on pause, China focuses more on economic data and currency stability.
Monetary Policy: The PBOC’s steady reference rate indicates a neutral monetary stance. No rate cuts signal confidence in current liquidity levels.
Trend: Slight upward bias in USD/CNY due to cautious yuan guidance.
Resistance: 7.1650, then 7.1800 and 7.2000.
Support: 7.1450, then 7.1300 and 7.1200.
Forecast: USD/CNY may hold within a narrow band (7.1450–7.1650) as the PBOC balances economic stability and trade competitiveness.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to cautious; investors interpret the PBOC fix as a steady hand amid inflation and trade questions.
Catalysts: Chinese retail sales and industrial output data, US PPI, Fed commentary, and potential global trade rhetoric.
GBP/USD is holding firm around 1.2950, trading in a tight range as investors await the UK CPI release due mid-week. The British Pound remains supported by cautious optimism that inflation will remain above the BoE’s 2% target, delaying potential rate cuts. Risk appetite and USD softness also help stabilize the pair.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct impact on GBP, though global energy prices and trade headlines may indirectly influence inflation expectations.
US Economic Data: Traders await the US PPI print, which may move the dollar and shift GBP/USD dynamics.
FOMC Outcome:
A less aggressive Fed tone supports GBP/USD; no rate hike surprises bolster broader FX stability.
Trade Policy: No major UK-EU or UK-US trade headlines at the moment, allowing GBP to focus on domestic data.
Monetary Policy: Markets are watching if UK CPI supports or undermines the BoE’s cautious rate cut stance. Inflation above 2.0% could strengthen GBP short-term.
Trend:Neutral to mildly bullish consolidation.
Resistance: 1.2975, then 1.3000 and 1.3050.
Support: 1.2910, followed by 1.2860 and 1.2800.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism; GBP viewed as data-sensitive with limited downside unless CPI significantly disappoints.
Catalysts: UK CPI (YoY expected at 2.0%), US PPI, Fed commentary, and broader risk appetite.
WTI’s decline signals a shift in energy market sentiment as traders weigh the real impact of political threats versus supply fundamentals. Silver’s rise and stable commodity-linked currencies reflect a cautiously optimistic tone. With inflation data due from both the US and UK, markets are likely to remain sensitive to macro headlines and central bank cues. The path ahead hinges on how policymakers respond to price pressures and geopolitical developments in the coming days.
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On July 15, 2025, China’s economy delivers an upside surprise, growing 5.2% YoY in Q2 — slightly above the 5.1% consensus. The better-than-expected data boosts risk sentiment across Asia-Pacific markets. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) edge higher, both benefiting from stronger demand outlooks tied to China’s recovery. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen weakens as 10-year government bond yields in Japan surge to their highest since 2008, signaling policy divergence. Although Gold edges up near $3,350 ahead of the U.S. CPI release, today’s spotlight is on China’s ripple effects across global assets.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,348, gaining traction as investors brace for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later today. A softer inflation print could strengthen expectations of Fed rate cuts later in the year, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Broader market sentiment is also supported by upbeat Chinese GDP figures, though the dollar remains stable for now.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tariff rhetoric between the U.S. and major trade partners sustains mild safe-haven demand, though immediate geopolitical risks remain muted.
US Economic Data: Today’s U.S. CPI release is a critical risk event. A softer inflation print could reduce Fed tightening pressure and lift gold prices.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed remains in wait-and-see mode, but market bets continue to tilt toward rate cuts in late 2025, which supports non-yielding assets.
Trade Policy: Rising tariff concerns between the U.S., EU, and Canada have renewed safe-haven interest in gold as investors hedge policy uncertainty.
Monetary Policy: Global central banks are diverging in policy paths, but the Fed’s leaning toward easing keeps U.S. real yields suppressed — a bullish factor for gold.
Trend: Mildly bullish, with price consolidating just below resistance.
Resistance: $3,355 (immediate), followed by $3,375 and $3,400.
Support: $3,330, $3,315, and $3,290.
Forecast: Gold may range between $3,330–$3,375 ahead of CPI. A soft inflation print could trigger a breakout above $3,375 toward $3,400.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to bullish. Traders are cautious but optimistic on gold’s upside if inflation data supports a dovish Fed trajectory.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI data, Fed speakers, Treasury yield movement, global trade tensions, and Middle East developments.
China’s economy expanded by 5.2% YoY in the second quarter of 2025, slightly beating expectations of 5.1%. The growth was driven by stronger industrial output and resilient consumer spending, providing a boost to risk sentiment across Asia-Pacific currencies and commodities. This positive surprise helped offset ongoing concerns over global trade tensions, especially ahead of the U.S. CPI release.
Geopolitical Risks: While U.S.-China relations remain cautious, today’s data deflects immediate concerns. Renewed U.S. tariffs on other partners have not directly impacted China’s Q2 growth.
US Economic Data: Traders are watching how U.S. CPI may influence global growth expectations and monetary policy divergence, with potential spillovers to China-sensitive assets.
FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed outlook supports demand for emerging market assets, including China-linked trades like AUD, NZD, and copper.
Trade Policy: With Trump’s recent tariff threats focused on Canada and the EU, markets have temporarily shifted focus away from U.S.-China tensions, allowing today’s GDP to shine through.
Monetary Policy: The PBoC continues to strike a balance — keeping liquidity steady while avoiding aggressive easing. This stability supports broader investor confidence.
Trend: Positive bias as risk currencies respond to growth signals.
Resistance: AUD/USD – 0.6820, NZD/USD – 0.6025, Copper – $5.60.
Support: AUD/USD – 0.6770, NZD/USD – 0.5950, Copper – $5.42.
Forecast: China’s data may keep AUD, NZD, and industrial metals supported unless U.S. CPI drastically alters risk appetite.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on tilt as China’s data beat forecasts; regional currencies and commodities favored over USD.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI release, Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales (due later this week), updates on U.S.-China trade rhetoric.
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) inches higher to 0.6800 as investors digest China’s stronger-than-expected GDP data for Q2 2025. The risk-sensitive Aussie benefits from upbeat sentiment tied to China’s economic recovery and a weaker U.S. Dollar ahead of today’s CPI release. Gains remain modest as markets remain cautious over global trade tensions and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation stance.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing immediate trade conflict concerns with China supports AUD, though broader U.S. tariff rhetoric continues to keep risk sentiment fragile.
US Economic Data: Focus is now on the upcoming CPI report. A cooler inflation print could pressure the USD and further lift the AUD.
FOMC Outcome:
Expectations of delayed Fed cuts have limited AUD’s rally. However, dovish signals could renew upside momentum.
Trade Policy: Trump’s fresh tariff actions do not directly impact Australia, but global trade uncertainty keeps investors guarded.
Trend: Mild bullish bias with room for upside on sustained risk-on tone.
Resistance: 0.6820, followed by 0.6855 and 0.6900.
Support: 0.6770, then 0.6725 and 0.6690.
Forecast: AUD/USD may extend toward 0.6850 if U.S. CPI data supports a dovish Fed. A hot CPI could reverse gains toward 0.6750.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic. Investors see AUD as a proxy for China’s growth outlook and risk sentiment.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI release, Chinese Industrial Production, Fed commentary, RBA rate outlook.
NZD/USD holds positive ground around 0.5960, supported by China’s better-than-expected Q2 GDP report and the associated boost in regional risk appetite. As a commodity-linked currency with strong trade ties to China, the Kiwi dollar benefits from optimism around Asia-Pacific growth. However, caution prevails ahead of the U.S. CPI release and concerns over escalating global trade tensions.
Geopolitical Risks: Global trade friction remains a concern, but the lack of direct NZ-related tensions allows room for Kiwi strength.
US Economic Data: Traders await CPI data for insight into Fed’s next move; a dovish surprise could further lift NZD/USD.
FOMC Outcome:
Fed’s cautious tone and delay in rate cuts have capped Kiwi gains, though dovish hints may provide renewed upside.
Trade Policy: Trump’s focus on Canadian and European tariffs helps insulate the NZD for now, but broader uncertainty keeps traders wary.
Monetary Policy: RBNZ maintains a data-dependent stance; better Chinese data may ease pressure for near-term policy support.
Trend: Modestly bullish with room for continuation if U.S. inflation is soft.
Resistance: 0.5980, followed by 0.6020 and 0.6055.
Support: 0.5920, then 0.5885 and 0.5850.
Forecast: NZD/USD may retest 0.6000+ if risk-on sentiment persists. A strong U.S. CPI print could push back toward 0.5900 support.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to bullish; traders see upside as long as China data stays solid and the Fed remains patient.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI data, China’s industrial data, RBNZ policy signals, global risk tone.
USD/JPY trades near 147.00, holding gains as Japanese 10-year government bond yields climb to their highest level since 2008. The surge in yields reflects investor expectations of eventual policy normalization from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), although rising U.S. yields and safe-haven flows into the dollar continue to keep the yen under pressure. The broader narrative remains one of yield divergence favoring the USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Global tariff tensions and regional uncertainty keep safe-haven demand alive, but USD is currently favored over JPY due to yield dynamics.
US Economic Data: Strong inflation data or hawkish Fed commentary could further strengthen the USD against JPY.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed’s cautious tone and higher-for-longer rate stance support USD strength, contributing to yen weakness.
Trade Policy: The reemergence of U.S. tariffs on major trading partners elevates USD demand and drives JPY lower despite local bond market dynamics.
Monetary Policy: BoJ’s resistance to aggressive tightening continues to widen the yield spread with the U.S., keeping JPY on the defensive.
Trend:Bullish continuation above 146.50 key support.
Resistance: 147.35, then 148.00 and 148.50.
Support: 146.20, then 145.50 and 144.80.
Market Sentiment: Bullish for USD/JPY, as traders prefer the greenback for carry trades amid diverging central bank outlooks.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI, Fed minutes, Japan bond market commentary, and risk appetite swings.
China’s stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth at 5.2% YoY lifted risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies on July 15, 2025. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars gained modestly as markets priced in sustained demand from Asia’s largest economy. Japan’s 10-year bond yields surged to their highest levels since 2008, weighing on the Yen amid expectations of BoJ tightening. Meanwhile, Gold approached $3,350 ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. CPI print, which could shape near-term Fed expectations. Investors now turn their attention to U.S. inflation data and upcoming central bank commentary to guide the next wave of market direction.
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On July 14, 2025, global markets pivot back toward risk aversion as U.S. President Donald Trump renews tariff threats, targeting both the European Union and Canada. Gold (XAU/USD) climbs above $3,350, recovering its shine amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. The U.S. Dollar shows mixed reactions — EUR/USD pushes toward 1.1700 while NZD/USD drops near 0.6000 on tariff spillovers and looming Chinese trade data. GBP/USD remains vulnerable around 1.3500 amid Brexit silence and USD strength. USD/CAD extends higher toward 1.3700, pressured by direct trade rhetoric from Washington. Traders now shift focus to U.S. retail sales and China’s external sector updates.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades above $3,350, gaining momentum as renewed trade tensions revive safe-haven flows. Traders rushed to hedge geopolitical risk after U.S. President Trump reignited tariff threats on both Europe and Canada. The yellow metal recovered from recent lows, reflecting market caution despite firm U.S. data.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s tariff threats against the EU and Canada trigger global risk aversion, boosting gold’s appeal.
US Economic Data: Mixed signals from jobless claims and inflation data contribute to USD uncertainty, favoring gold.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance supports yield-sensitive assets like gold as rate cuts remain on the table.
Trade Policy: Renewed tariff rhetoric shifts capital into safe havens like gold and U.S. Treasuries.
Monetary Policy: Divergent global central bank outlooks continue to support non-yielding gold in risk-off settings.
Trend: Short-term bullish recovery above $3,350.
Resistance: $3,370, followed by $3,400 and $3,434.
Support: $3,332, then $3,300 and $3,275.
Forecast: Gold could extend toward $3,370–$3,400 if geopolitical uncertainty persists; a pullback below $3,332 would signal consolidation.
Market Sentiment: Bullish bias fueled by tariff headlines and demand for hedges.
Catalysts: U.S. retail sales, Fed speakers, and fresh trade headlines involving the EU and Canada.
GBP/USD hovers around 1.3500, struggling to recover as the British Pound remains pressured by a resilient U.S. Dollar and lack of fresh UK drivers. Despite holding ground near recent lows, the pair appears vulnerable to renewed selling, particularly as global risk sentiment remains fragile amid tariff-related concerns.
Geopolitical Risks: Global trade tensions weigh on broader risk appetite, indirectly affecting GBP via USD strength.
US Economic Data: Solid U.S. data, including inflation and labor market resilience, continues to support the greenback.
UK Economic Outlook: With limited domestic catalysts and Brexit-related silence, the Pound lacks the fuel for a breakout.
Trade Policy: U.S. tariff rhetoric boosts USD demand, keeping pressure on GBP/USD despite mild equity stability.
Monetary Policy: Bank of England’s cautious stance offers little support, while Fed’s hawkish tilt keeps GBP on the defensive.
Trend: Bearish to neutral; consolidation after steep drop.
Resistance: 1.3530, then 1.3600 and 1.3665.
Support: 1.3460, followed by 1.3420 and 1.3350.
Forecast: GBP/USD may remain rangebound unless a shift in global sentiment or strong UK data sparks momentum.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish as risk flows favor the USD.
Catalysts: U.K. GDP updates, U.S. retail sales, and tariff-related headlines involving the EU.
NZD/USD softens near the 0.6000 level, under pressure from resurging trade war fears and cautious sentiment ahead of China’s trade balance data. The Kiwi’s earlier gains faded as traders weighed the implications of global tariffs on Asia-Pacific exports, particularly given New Zealand’s strong trade links with China.
Geopolitical Risks: U.S. tariff threats intensify global uncertainty, indirectly impacting export-driven economies like New Zealand.
US Economic Data: Broad USD strength from robust U.S. metrics drags NZD lower, especially as traders brace for inflation data.
China’s Trade Balance: Markets await June’s Chinese trade report, a key gauge for NZD given New Zealand’s deep economic ties with Beijing.
Trade Policy: Worsening trade rhetoric continues to spook markets, reducing risk appetite and hurting high-beta currencies.
Trend: Bearish short-term bias; momentum weakening near key support.
Resistance: 0.6055, then 0.6100 and 0.6160.
Support: 0.5980, then 0.5950 and 0.5900.
Forecast: A daily close below 0.5980 could signal further downside, especially if Chinese trade data disappoints.
Market Sentiment: Bearish; tariff tensions weigh heavily on commodity and trade-linked currencies.
Catalysts: Chinese trade data, U.S. CPI release, and any easing or escalation of Trump’s tariff threats.
EUR/USD trades near 1.1700, recovering modestly as the U.S. Dollar retreats slightly in response to renewed tariff tensions with the European Union. The Euro benefits from short-term USD softness but remains capped by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the impact of proposed trade policies.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s fresh tariff threats targeting the EU stoke market volatility, initially pressuring the Euro before USD weakness takes hold.
US Economic Data: Mixed U.S. data keeps the Dollar volatile, offering EUR/USD a short-term lift amid shifting Fed expectations.
Eurozone Outlook: The bloc’s recent stability contrasts with U.S. trade friction, helping the Euro find temporary footing.
Trade Policy: The threat of escalating U.S.-EU tariffs could become a medium-term headwind if negotiations falter.
Monetary Policy: ECB’s cautious stance remains a weight, though less so than the uncertainty surrounding Fed rate path.
Trend: Cautious rebound within short-term range.
Resistance: 1.1730, then 1.1765 and 1.1800.
Support: 1.1670, followed by 1.1625 and 1.1600.
Forecast: EUR/USD may attempt a move toward 1.1730–1.1765 if USD softness persists; failure to hold 1.1670 may invite selling.
Market Sentiment: Mixed; cautious optimism around Eurozone resilience, tempered by tariff concerns.
Catalysts: U.S.-EU trade negotiations, U.S. inflation figures, and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment.
USD/CAD holds firm near 1.3700, supported by renewed U.S. tariff threats targeting Canada. The pair sustains bullish momentum as risk sentiment falters and oil prices struggle to lift the Loonie. With trade tensions rising and WTI crude under pressure, USD/CAD remains elevated heading into the week’s key data releases.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s 35% tariff announcement on Canadian imports adds direct pressure to the Canadian Dollar, widening the trade gap.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. metrics continue to support the greenback, enhancing USD/CAD upside potential.
Canadian Outlook: Weaker oil and trade pressure from the U.S. increase downside risks for CAD, despite otherwise steady domestic fundamentals.
Trade Policy: Tariff tensions are front and center, driving the pair higher with markets bracing for retaliation or renegotiation.
Monetary Policy: BoC remains cautious, while the Fed holds a hawkish tone—yield spreads continue to favor the USD.
Trend:Bullish continuation, nearing breakout levels.
Resistance: 1.3725, then 1.3750 and 1.3790.
Support: 1.3675, followed by 1.3620 and 1.3580.
Market Sentiment: Bullish for USD/CAD amid heightened trade tensions and softening crude oil.
Catalysts: U.S. Retail Sales, Canada CPI, crude oil trends, and official responses to Trump’s tariff measures.
Markets entered the week on edge, with gold leading the safe-haven charge past $3,350 as global trade tensions intensified. The U.S. Dollar stayed firm overall, with EUR/USD and USD/CAD reflecting tariff-sensitive flows. GBP/USD and NZD/USD remain weighed by domestic and external pressures. Traders now await major data prints — including U.S. retail sales and Chinese trade figures — alongside any escalation or resolution in Trump’s tariff campaign. Volatility remains elevated as policy and politics dominate sentiment.
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On July 11, 2025, global markets reeled after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a steep 35% tariff on Canadian imports, sparking renewed trade tensions and lifting the U.S. Dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) pushed above 97.50 as traders sought safety in the greenback. USD/CAD surged toward 1.3700, reflecting immediate pressure on the Canadian Dollar. Meanwhile, EUR/USD slipped below 1.1700 ahead of a potential U.S.-EU tariff deal, and NZD/USD retreated to the 0.6000 handle amid risk-off sentiment. The tariff shock dampened risk appetite globally and repositioned flows across major FX pairs. Markets now await U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data and European Commission responses to gauge the next direction.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades above 97.50, climbing steadily following President Trump’s announcement of a 35% tariff on imports from Canada. The move heightened trade tensions and fueled demand for the greenback as a defensive hedge. With markets pricing in retaliatory risks and broader economic consequences, the DXY is holding firm near multi-week highs.
Geopolitical Risks: Fresh U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports and looming trade discussions with the EU have spurred global risk aversion, enhancing USD appeal.
US Economic Data: Traders await Initial Jobless Claims for signals on labor market resilience. Strong data could reinforce dollar strength.
FOMC Outcome: Fed remains cautious but has not ruled out rate cuts later in the year. Market focus stays on inflation and employment figures.
Trade Policy: Trump’s aggressive stance on tariffs injects policy uncertainty, which typically favors the USD as a reserve currency.
Monetary Policy: Rate differentials continue to support the dollar amid relatively hawkish Fed expectations versus global peers.
Trend: Bullish continuation above 97.50, nearing short-term breakout zone.
Resistance: 97.85, followed by 98.20 and 98.50.
Support: 97.30, then 96.90 and 96.50.
Forecast: If DXY holds above 97.50, a move toward 98.20 is likely. A break below 97.30 may stall momentum and reintroduce rangebound conditions.
Market Sentiment: Bullish. Risk-off flows and trade policy uncertainty have triggered renewed interest in the USD.
Catalysts: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Eurozone industrial production, Canadian response to tariffs, and upcoming Fed commentary.
EUR/USD trades just below 1.1700, facing downside pressure as the U.S. Dollar strengthens on renewed trade tensions. The pair lost momentum amid growing expectations of a potential tariff deal between the U.S. and EU, with investors remaining cautious ahead of upcoming economic releases and official responses from Brussels.
Geopolitical Risks: Tariff uncertainty between the U.S. and EU weighs on the euro, with traders wary of possible retaliatory actions from European leaders.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. data continues to support the dollar, overshadowing any short-term EUR resilience.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s hawkish tone underpins USD strength, narrowing the room for EUR/USD recovery.
Trade Policy: The euro faces pressure as the U.S. broadens its tariff strategy, now eyeing potential levies on EU goods.
Monetary Policy: Divergence in central bank tone (hawkish Fed vs. dovish ECB) continues to cap euro strength.
Trend: Bearish consolidation below key psychological support.
Resistance: 1.1720, then 1.1755 and 1.1790.
Support: 1.1675, followed by 1.1640 and 1.1600.
Forecast: Continued pressure below 1.1700 could expose 1.1640. A bounce above 1.1720 may spark limited upside toward 1.1755.
Market Sentiment: Bearish. Traders are favoring USD amid trade concerns and expect the euro to remain vulnerable.
Catalysts: U.S. Jobless Claims, ECB commentary, U.S.-EU trade headlines, and inflation data from both regions.
USD/CAD trades just below 1.3700, rallying sharply after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports. The move sent shockwaves through the Canadian economy, with investors pricing in negative trade implications. The loonie weakened despite stable oil prices, as tariff-driven uncertainty overshadowed other domestic fundamentals.
Geopolitical Risks: Direct trade friction with the U.S. leaves Canada vulnerable, prompting USD/CAD upside.
US Economic Data: Robust U.S. labor data supports greenback demand, pushing the pair higher.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s policy consistency strengthens USD flows relative to CAD amid risk-off positioning.
Trade Policy: Trump’s 35% tariff announcement marks a severe shift in U.S.-Canada trade relations, fueling CAD sell-off.
Trend: Bullish breakout from previous consolidation.
Resistance: 1.3725, then 1.3750 and 1.3800.
Support: 1.3665, then 1.3620 and 1.3580.
Forecast: A sustained break above 1.3700 may drive further gains toward 1.3750; short-term pullbacks remain supported near 1.3665.
Market Sentiment: Bullish bias persists as traders position for prolonged trade fallout.
Catalysts: Canadian GDP outlook, retaliatory tariff announcements, U.S. economic releases, and oil price volatility.
NZD/USD trades slightly above 0.6000 but shows signs of weakness as rising trade tensions dent risk appetite. The pair has come under pressure amid renewed fears of global tariff wars, with markets reacting to Trump’s latest import levies. Despite a weaker USD environment, the kiwi remains subdued due to its sensitivity to global trade dynamics and soft local data.
Geopolitical Risks: Escalating trade tensions globally impact high-beta currencies like the NZD; safe-haven demand limits kiwi upside.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. fundamentals keep the USD resilient, challenging kiwi recovery.
FOMC Outcome: No major surprises from the Fed, but rate differentials remain unfavorable for NZD.
Trade Policy: Concerns over a broadening tariff war reduce risk sentiment and cap commodity-linked currency demand.
Monetary Policy: RBNZ remains cautious; traders expect prolonged dovish tone amid external shocks.
Trend: Bearish bias as the pair fails to sustain momentum above 0.6050.
Resistance: 0.6045, then 0.6080 and 0.6120.
Support: 0.5985, followed by 0.5960 and 0.5920.
Forecast: A drop below 0.5985 may open the path toward 0.5960; limited upside expected unless global risk tone improves.
Market Sentiment: Bearish to neutral as markets avoid risk-heavy assets amid trade policy uncertainty.
Catalysts: U.S. data prints, NZ inflation outlook, China’s trade figures, and tariff-related headlines.
USD/JPY trades near 147.00, regaining upward momentum as the U.S. Dollar strengthens broadly amid escalating tariff tensions. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure due to persistent policy divergence and diminished demand for traditional safe havens. Despite a brief intraday recovery, the yen quickly lost ground as USD strength reasserted dominance.
Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions are boosting USD demand over JPY, reversing typical safe-haven flows amid policy divergence.
US Economic Data: Solid U.S. data, including labor figures and inflation expectations, continue to support the greenback’s resilience.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance, while leaving room for rate cuts, remains more hawkish than the BoJ’s inaction — favoring USD/JPY bulls.
Trade Policy: Trump’s new tariffs on Canadian imports and potential EU levies are fueling USD gains and keeping JPY on the defensive.
Monetary Policy: With the BoJ holding rates ultra-low and signaling no urgency to tighten, the widening yield gap supports further yen depreciation.
Trend:Bullish recovery, rebounding from earlier dips.
Resistance: 147.20, then 147.75 and 148.50.
Support: 146.40, followed by 145.90 and 145.20.
Market Sentiment: Bullish bias for USD/JPY as broader dollar strength overshadows yen stability.
Catalysts: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, global risk sentiment, Japanese trade data, and yield spread dynamics.
The U.S. Dollar surged across the board as Trump’s tariff move reignited global trade tensions. USD/CAD jumped near 1.3700, NZD/USD weakened toward 0.6000, and EUR/USD remained under pressure below 1.1700. With trade talks in focus and data releases ahead, traders are bracing for more volatility. As risk sentiment wavers, the greenback may continue to dominate near term flows, while affected currencies like the loonie and kiwi may remain vulnerable.
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On July 10, 2025, Silver (XAG/USD) extends gains near $36.50, as traders seek shelter amid growing macro uncertainty and revived global risk aversion. Safe-haven demand lifted precious metals and the Japanese Yen earlier in the session, though JPY later gave up gains on reduced BoJ rate hike bets. The US Dollar continues to weaken across the board, supporting high-beta currencies like the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY pulls back from yearly highs as broader sentiment softens. All eyes now turn to the upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims report for clues on labor market strength and Fed policy direction.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $36.50, extending its safe-haven-driven rally as global uncertainty resurfaces. Renewed trade tensions and weaker US Dollar flows have lifted demand for precious metals, with silver outperforming amid rising geopolitical and economic risks. The metal now eyes the $37.00 psychological barrier, supported by strong inflows and risk-averse positioning.
Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty tied to tariff concerns and soft macro data revives interest in safe-haven assets like silver.
US Economic Data: Anticipation of US Initial Jobless Claims adds caution to the market; weaker labor data could further depress the USD, boosting silver.
FOMC Outcome: Traders expect a cautious tone from the Fed amid mixed inflation and labor signals, which may reduce pressure on metals.
Trade Policy: Renewed US tariff threats, particularly targeting major trading partners, have stirred risk-off flows that benefit silver.
Monetary Policy: Slowing global rate hike momentum enhances silver’s appeal as a non-yielding hedge asset.
Trend: Bullish momentum accelerating after breaking above $36.00.
Resistance: $36.70, then $37.00 and $37.30.
Support: $36.10, followed by $35.70 and $35.30.
Forecast: Silver may challenge $37.00 in the short term if risk sentiment deteriorates. A break below $36.10 could signal consolidation before further upside.
Market Sentiment: Bullish. Traders on X point to increased ETF inflows and macro hedge positioning.
Catalysts: US Jobless Claims, Fed speakers, geopolitical updates, and any acceleration in inflation or trade tension headlines.
AUD/USD trades near 0.6865, holding firm as the US Dollar weakens amid persistent trade-related tensions. The Australian Dollar remains supported by improved risk sentiment and lingering inflation concerns. Despite mixed signals from China’s economy, the Aussie benefits from its commodity-linked profile and a softer greenback as traders shift away from the USD ahead of key labor data.
Geopolitical Risks: Renewed tariff concerns and macro uncertainty have lifted risk-sensitive currencies like AUD, especially with safe-haven demand pressuring USD.
US Economic Data: Traders await the US Initial Jobless Claims report, which could sway USD direction and influence AUD’s performance.
FOMC Outcome: A cautious Fed outlook, combined with softening US inflation data, reduces USD appeal and indirectly supports AUD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s aggressive tariff stance and trade war rhetoric inject volatility into global markets, affecting AUD through its exposure to Asia-Pacific trade.
Monetary Policy: The RBA remains on hold, while the Fed’s policy expectations are softening, reducing rate divergence and favoring the Aussie.
Trend: Bullish bias above key support levels.
Resistance: 0.6885, then 0.6920 and 0.6950.
Support: 0.6830, followed by 0.6800 and 0.6770.
Forecast: AUD/USD could test 0.6920 if risk sentiment improves and the USD remains weak. A break below 0.6830 would suggest near-term consolidation.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish. Traders favor high-beta currencies while USD stalls on policy and trade uncertainty.
Catalysts: US Jobless Claims, China economic indicators, RBA minutes, and Fed commentary.
USD/JPY trades near 146.30 after paring earlier losses. The Japanese Yen briefly strengthened on safe-haven demand amid renewed trade concerns, but gains were capped as reduced expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes weighed on the currency. The US Dollar’s overall weakness supports downside pressure on the pair, but diverging monetary policy expectations continue to limit JPY upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Heightened trade tensions initially boosted JPY, but follow-through was limited by dovish BoJ expectations.
US Economic Data: Eyes are on US Initial Jobless Claims. A soft print could weigh on USD and reignite downward pressure on USD/JPY.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s cautious stance continues to offer yield support to USD, capping yen strength despite risk flows.
Trade Policy: Trump’s renewed tariff threats spark risk-off sentiment that supports JPY, although not enough to break resistance without BoJ support.
Trend: Neutral to bearish in the short term.
Resistance: 146.80, then 147.30 and 148.00.
Support: 145.90, followed by 145.30 and 144.75.
Forecast: USD/JPY may remain rangebound between 145.90 and 147.30. A break below 145.90 could open room toward 145.30 if USD weakens further.
Market Sentiment: Mixed. Traders are cautious as JPY reacts to both safe-haven flows and BoJ expectations.
Catalysts: US Jobless Claims, FOMC minutes, BoJ policy outlook, and geopolitical headlines.
EUR/JPY trades around 171.50, pulling back slightly from its yearly highs amid cooling market sentiment. The cross had surged in previous sessions on strong eurozone economic data and persistently dovish BoJ expectations. However, recent safe-haven demand and reduced risk appetite have stalled momentum, prompting mild profit-taking in EUR/JPY as traders reassess yield divergence.
Geopolitical Risks: Renewed global trade concerns and risk aversion have softened EUR/JPY, with some safe-haven flow returning to the yen.
US Economic Data: Indirectly influences euro-yen dynamics. A weaker USD shifts market focus to risk-sensitive pairs like EUR/JPY.
FOMC Outcome: Anticipated Fed caution sets the tone for other central banks. ECB hawkishness supports euro, but sentiment moderates flows.
Trade Policy: Tariff threats from the US raise concerns for global growth. JPY gains defensive traction while euro struggles for risk-on momentum.
Monetary Policy: The ECB remains on a tightening path, while the BoJ is still dovish — but narrowing expectations have led to temporary easing in the pair.
Trend: Bullish overall, but showing signs of exhaustion near multi-year highs.
Resistance: 171.85, then 172.50 and 173.30.
Support: 171.20, followed by 170.60 and 169.90.
Forecast: EUR/JPY may consolidate between 171.20–171.85. A clear break below 171.20 could trigger a corrective move toward 170.60 if sentiment continues to soften.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bearish in the short term. Traders are locking in profits after strong rallies.
Catalysts: Eurozone industrial data, US Jobless Claims, BoJ commentary, and global equity sentiment.
NZD/USD is trading above 0.6000, gaining modest traction as the US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of the Initial Jobless Claims report. The Kiwi benefits from improved risk sentiment and rising demand for higher-yielding assets amid a subdued greenback. Markets are closely watching US labor data and Fed commentary for further direction, while New Zealand’s economic calendar remains light.
Geopolitical Risks: Tariff-related fears have shifted market flows toward safe-haven and commodity-linked currencies, supporting NZD in a mixed-risk environment.
US Economic Data: US Initial Jobless Claims is the key short-term catalyst. Weak numbers could fuel more downside for USD, aiding NZD upside.
FOMC Outcome: Traders expect the Fed to maintain a cautious tone, reinforcing expectations of future rate cuts — which erodes USD support.
Trade Policy: US tariff threats raise global trade anxiety, but also provide relative support to currencies like NZD, which are less directly impacted.
Monetary Policy: The RBNZ remains on hold. Policy stability, combined with a softening USD, supports the pair above 0.6000.
Trend: Bullish short-term breakout above psychological 0.6000.
Resistance: 0.6035, then 0.6060 and 0.6100.
Support: 0.5980, followed by 0.5955 and 0.5920.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish. Traders favor commodity FX in the current macro setup while USD remains under pressure.
Catalysts: US Jobless Claims, Fed speakers, China trade data, and global equities performance.
July 10 saw Silver take center stage, surging on a renewed bid for safety while the US Dollar softened amid trade and inflation concerns. Commodity currencies like AUD and NZD climbed, supported by dollar weakness and risk-sensitive flows. The Japanese Yen’s brief strength faded as markets recalibrated BoJ expectations, while EUR/JPY’s retreat reflected broader cooling in sentiment. With risk flows in motion and jobless claims data ahead, traders remain focused on global uncertainty and shifting central bank expectations.
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On July 9, 2025, markets respond sharply to rising geopolitical and trade tensions. WTI crude oil jumps above $67.00 as renewed attacks in the Red Sea revive supply disruption fears. Copper prices surge past $5.50 after former President Trump signals plans to impose a 50% tariff on imports if re-elected. The US Dollar Index (DXY) edges higher above 97.50 ahead of the FOMC Minutes, while China’s CPI comes in slightly above expectations at 0.1% YoY, offering mixed signals for Asia-Pacific assets. The Australian Dollar trades flat as markets digest China’s inflation data and weigh the global risk backdrop. Traders brace for further volatility ahead of the FOMC release and updates on trade policy rhetoric.
WTI crude oil trades above $67.00, rebounding sharply as renewed attacks in the Red Sea trigger fresh supply-side fears. The escalation revives geopolitical tension in one of the world’s most critical trade routes, reigniting bullish sentiment after recent price stagnation. Traders are now weighing the likelihood of broader regional instability and its impact on global oil flows.
Geopolitical Risks: New attacks in the Red Sea spark fears of supply disruption, supporting oil prices as traders hedge against shipping risk and regional instability.
US Economic Data: Ahead of key FOMC Minutes and GDP revisions, demand-side outlook remains mixed. Strong data could boost expectations for energy use.
FOMC Outcome: A potentially hawkish tone in the FOMC Minutes may weigh on risk sentiment, but inflation uncertainty could keep oil demand expectations firm.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats stoke concern over broader trade instability, which could indirectly affect oil transport, demand, and global trade flows.
Monetary Policy: The Fed remains cautious, and no immediate cuts signal sustained economic activity that could support demand for crude in the medium term.
Trend: Bullish breakout from consolidation after holding above $65.00 support.
Resistance: $67.80, then $68.50 and $69.30.
Support: $66.50, followed by $65.70 and $64.80.
Forecast: WTI may retest the $68.50 zone if geopolitical tensions persist. A close below $66.50 would neutralize the short-term bullish setup.
Market Sentiment: Bullish. Traders on X highlight increased tanker insurance costs and rerouting due to Red Sea risks.
Catalysts: FOMC Minutes, US EIA inventory data, Middle East developments, and global demand forecasts.
AUD/USD trades near 0.6840, little changed despite fresh inflation data from China. Mixed CPI figures from Australia’s largest trading partner failed to spark momentum, while risk sentiment remains fragile amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and a firmer US Dollar. The Australian Dollar is caught between external macro uncertainty and subdued domestic inflation outlook.
Geopolitical Risks: Red Sea conflict boosts demand for USD as a safe-haven, putting indirect pressure on AUD despite no direct regional exposure.
US Economic Data: Stronger US Dollar ahead of the FOMC Minutes limits AUD upside. Dollar-sensitive flows remain dominant in the pair’s direction.
FOMC Outcome: Markets expect a hawkish tone in the upcoming minutes, which could further weigh on AUD if risk appetite fades.
Trade Policy: Tariff fears tied to US-China tensions (with Trump proposing 50% import tariffs) could indirectly dampen AUD via China’s economic exposure.
Monetary Policy: RBA’s pause and soft CPI trends keep policy expectations neutral. Divergence with a still-restrictive Fed favors USD in the near term.
Trend: Neutral with bearish bias below 0.6855 resistance.
Resistance: 0.6855, then 0.6880 and 0.6920.
Support: 0.6810, then 0.6780 and 0.6750.
Forecast: AUD/USD may remain rangebound between 0.6810–0.6855. A break below 0.6810 could push it lower toward 0.6780 on renewed USD strength.
Market Sentiment: Mixed to cautious. Traders await clearer direction from FOMC and Chinese demand signals.
Catalysts: FOMC Minutes, Chinese trade and credit data, and Australia labor market numbers.
Copper prices surge above $5.50 per pound, marking their highest level in weeks, as markets react to former President Trump’s proposal to impose a 50% tariff on all imports if re-elected. The threat of renewed trade protectionism stokes concerns over supply chain constraints and future global demand shifts, while also fueling speculative buying. The move comes amid a backdrop of persistent inflation concerns and mixed Chinese economic signals.
Geopolitical Risks: Trade war threats are back in focus as Trump signals extreme tariff measures. Copper reacts strongly due to its industrial and global trade sensitivity.
US Economic Data: Resilient US data and anticipation of FOMC Minutes create uncertainty for base metals demand, but current speculation outweighs fundamentals.
FOMC Outcome: A hawkish Fed may tighten liquidity, but copper remains supported by trade war hedging and speculative flows.
Trade Policy: Trump’s proposed 50% blanket tariff shocks global markets. Investors price in supply bottlenecks and potential retaliation — both bullish for copper.
Trend: Bullish breakout above consolidation range.
Resistance: $5.55, then $5.65 and $5.75.
Support: $5.45, followed by $5.30 and $5.20.
Forecast: Copper could extend gains to $5.65–$5.75 if trade tensions escalate. A return below $5.45 would suggest a short-term pullback.
Market Sentiment: Strongly bullish. Social chatter shows rising hedge activity and inflows into industrial metal ETFs.
Catalysts: FOMC Minutes, Trump campaign updates, China stimulus policy, and global PMI trends.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades slightly above 97.50, edging higher ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes. Markets are on alert for any signal regarding the Fed’s rate path for the remainder of 2025. The dollar’s modest strength is supported by safe-haven flows amid renewed Red Sea tensions and anticipation of more hawkish Fed language, even as global inflation remains mixed.
Geopolitical Risks: Fresh conflict in the Red Sea has underpinned the USD through safe-haven demand, as investors seek protection from potential global disruptions
US Economic Data: Upcoming FOMC Minutes and core inflation data may reshape rate expectations. Any hawkish surprises could support further USD strength.
FOMC Outcome: Traders expect a reaffirmation of the Fed’s cautious approach. A hawkish tone could reignite USD buying across the board.
Trade Policy: Tariff threats from Trump’s campaign feed into global uncertainty, making USD more attractive as a defensive currency.
Monetary Policy: With rate cuts still not imminent, the dollar maintains yield appeal versus peers like the euro, yen, and Aussie.
Trend: Mildly bullish after holding above 97.20 support.
Resistance: 97.80, then 98.10 and 98.50.
Support: 97.20, followed by 96.85 and 96.40.
Forecast: DXY could push toward 98.10 if the Fed confirms hawkish bias. A break below 97.20 would shift focus back to 96.85.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to bullish. Traders show caution ahead of the FOMC while pricing in trade and geopolitical risks.
Catalysts: FOMC Minutes, US inflation data, Red Sea developments, and global central bank commentary.
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% YoY in June, slightly above the 0.0% forecast. The modest beat offers limited encouragement for reflation hopes, but the data confirms ongoing deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy. While not market-moving on its own, the release adds to a complex picture for global commodities and risk sentiment—especially for currencies like the Australian Dollar and metals like copper.
Geopolitical Risks: With tensions in the Red Sea escalating, the China CPI print plays a secondary role in global sentiment shifts.
Chinese Economic Data: Inflation remains subdued, with core demand signals still soft. Policymakers may face growing pressure to ease further.
Global Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff rhetoric raises concerns about Chinese export conditions, adding deflationary pressure even as consumer prices tick up.
Commodity Linkages: The modest CPI rise does little to reignite raw material demand optimism, though some stability is seen in industrial pricing.
Monetary Policy: The PBoC is expected to maintain accommodative policy amid persistent weak inflation, contrasting with Western central banks.
AUD/USD: Mixed China CPI adds little momentum to the Aussie, which remains rangebound amid global risk uncertainty.
Copper & Commodities: CPI marginally supportive of copper stability, but broader upside is driven more by trade risks than Chinese demand.
Risk Sentiment: Limited shift in global risk tone; traders remain focused on FOMC and geopolitical flashpoints.
Market Sentiment: Muted response. Most traders expect more stimulus from China to combat deflation, but are watching upcoming credit and trade figures.
Catalysts: China PPI, trade balance, loan data, and any fiscal stimulus announcements.
July 9 saw oil and copper leading commodity markets higher, driven by a fresh wave of geopolitical risks and aggressive trade policy speculation. Crude oil’s bounce above $67.00 underscores supply concerns linked to renewed Red Sea tensions, while copper’s spike reflects fears of a potential tariff war. Meanwhile, the US Dollar firmed ahead of the FOMC Minutes, and mixed China CPI data kept risk sentiment in check. With central banks staying cautious and geopolitical headlines driving market momentum, traders remain alert for further signals on inflation, growth, and trade policy in the days ahead.
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On July 8, 2025, global markets respond to growing optimism around potential trade breakthroughs, leading to broad shifts in sentiment across asset classes. Gold (XAU/USD) slips below $3,350 as safe-haven demand eases, while Silver (XAG/USD) flatlines near $36.90 amid mixed technicals. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) gains ground ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision, buoyed by strong positioning and improved risk tone. The Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) weakens as fading trade fears reduce bets on BoJ tightening. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China sets the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1534, slightly firmer than expected, reflecting stability-focused policy intent.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades below $3,350, extending its pullback as investors price in optimism surrounding potential global trade agreements. The easing of geopolitical tensions and stronger sentiment for risk assets have weakened safe-haven demand, dragging gold lower. Meanwhile, stable US data and higher bond yields continue to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.
Geopolitical Risks: Reduced tensions and progress toward trade deals lessen the need for safe-haven positioning in gold.
US Economic Data: Resilient labor data and firm ISM readings support the USD and yields, pressuring gold prices.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed remains cautious but data-driven; no urgency to cut rates limits the upside for gold.
Trade Policy: Positive signs in trade talks between the US and key partners reduce demand for gold as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: Sticky inflation and stable economic growth curb aggressive rate cut bets, suppressing gold’s appeal.
Trend: Bearish short-term; unable to reclaim key moving averages.
Resistance: $3,355, then $3,375 and $3,400.
Support: $3,330, followed by $3,310 and $3,280.
Forecast: Gold may remain under pressure toward $3,310 unless fresh geopolitical risks emerge or Fed tone shifts dovish.
Market Sentiment: Bearish bias as gold fails to attract flows amid improving macro outlook and yield support for the dollar.
Catalysts: US inflation data, FOMC minutes, global trade headlines, and bond market volatility.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades just under $37.00, showing little directional movement as bulls and bears battle for control. Despite a weaker US Dollar and improved risk appetite, silver struggles to extend gains due to mixed technical signals and a lack of decisive market catalysts. Traders appear cautious ahead of upcoming US inflation data and central bank commentary.
Geopolitical Risks: Decreased safe-haven demand amid trade optimism limits upward momentum in silver, even as risk appetite holds steady.
US Economic Data: Mixed signals from US macro indicators keep silver tethered to a tight range as traders await clarity from upcoming CPI data.
FOMC Outcome: With the Fed in wait-and-see mode, expectations for late-year easing remain intact but lack urgency—providing neutral pressure for silver.
Trade Policy: Hopes of trade progress support global demand outlook, but lack of concrete developments tempers industrial metal optimism.
Monetary Policy: Rising yields and firm real rates curb non-yielding asset appeal, but long-term expectations of rate cuts offer support.
Trend: Sideways consolidation; rangebound behavior around $36.75–$37.00.
Resistance: $37.00, followed by $37.30 and $37.65.
Support: $36.55, then $36.20 and $35.75.
Forecast: Silver may continue consolidating between $36.20 and $37.00. A clear break above $37.00 could attract momentum buyers, while a drop below $36.20 might signal deeper retracement.
Market Sentiment: Neutral; indecision prevails as traders await stronger directional cues from macro data and yield movements.
Catalysts: US CPI and PPI releases, Fed speeches, and global trade policy developments.
On July 8, 2025, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1534, slightly higher than the previous 7.1506 fix. The modest adjustment reflects the central bank’s ongoing effort to maintain currency stability amid global trade optimism and a broadly softer US Dollar. The fix comes as markets monitor both domestic Chinese policy and external sentiment tied to trade progress and US-China relations.
Geopolitical Risks: Reduced global trade tensions lower pressure on the yuan, supporting PBOC’s preference for stability rather than interventionist shifts.
US Economic Data: A weaker dollar environment gives China space to fix the yuan slightly stronger without disrupting competitiveness.
FOMC Outcome: Stable Fed policy limits USD upside, aligning with China’s gradualist approach in fixing USD/CNY levels.
Trade Policy: Easing trade fears support Chinese export sentiment; PBOC maintains a middle ground to avoid speculative yuan appreciation.
Trend: Slightly bearish for USD/CNY on multi-session view as trade hopes and yuan stability dominate.
Resistance: 7.1600, then 7.1750 and 7.1880.
Support: 7.1400, followed by 7.1260 and 7.1100.
Forecast: USD/CNY may remain rangebound between 7.1400–7.1600. Downside may emerge if US CPI softens further or China issues positive economic data.
Market Sentiment: Stable to slightly bearish on USD/CNY as traders view today’s fix as neutral-to-supportive for yuan strength.
Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, Chinese loan data, further US-China trade signals, and PBOC liquidity moves.
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6855, building on recent strength as traders position ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision. Despite a recent dip in inflation, the Australian Dollar remains supported by improved global risk sentiment and trade optimism. A softer US Dollar and relatively stable commodity prices are helping to keep the Aussie elevated near recent highs.
Geopolitical Risks: Trade optimism and easing tensions globally favor high-beta currencies like AUD, reducing safe-haven flows into the USD.
US Economic Data: Mixed US data keeps the dollar in check, offering AUD breathing room as traders assess upcoming inflation figures.
FOMC Outcome: A data-dependent Fed with no immediate easing triggers supports modest USD weakness, aiding AUD’s advance.
Trade Policy: Positive trade rhetoric benefits Australia’s export outlook, adding a tailwind to the Aussie.
Monetary Policy: RBA’s expected hold at this meeting keeps the focus on forward guidance. A neutral-to-hawkish tone could reinforce AUD upside.
Trend: Bullish short-term; maintaining a steady upward channel since breaking above 0.6800.
Resistance: 0.6875, then 0.6900 and 0.6955.
Support: 0.6825, followed by 0.6790 and 0.6755.
Forecast: AUD/USD could test 0.6900 if the RBA remains steady or sounds cautiously optimistic. A dovish surprise or stronger USD data could pull it back below 0.6825.
Market Sentiment: Bullish heading into the RBA decision, supported by risk-on flows and USD softness.
Catalysts: RBA policy statement, US CPI report, China trade data, and shifts in commodity prices.
USD/JPY trades near 161.20, rising as the Japanese Yen weakens further amid fading expectations of aggressive Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening. Trade optimism and improving global sentiment have reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the yen. Meanwhile, strong US bond yields and supportive dollar flows continue to drive upside pressure in the pair.
Geopolitical Risks: Reduced tensions and trade deal optimism shift capital away from safe-haven flows into the yen, favoring USD/JPY upside.
US Economic Data: Steady US data and firm yields support the dollar’s bid, helping push USD/JPY to multi-decade highs.
FOMC Outcome: With the Fed staying patient and inflation not yet soft enough for a cut, yield spreads continue to favor the dollar.
Trade Policy: Easing global trade concerns favor carry trades, with the yen acting as a funding currency amid continued BoJ dovishness.
Monetary Policy: The BoJ remains ultra-cautious. Trade uncertainties are tempering already minimal expectations for rate hikes, weakening JPY outlook.
Trend: Strong bullish continuation; new cycle highs in play.
Resistance: 161.50, then 162.00 and 163.00.
Support: 160.75, followed by 160.00 and 159.30.
Forecast: USD/JPY may extend toward 162.00 if yield differentials remain wide. Only a major dovish surprise from the Fed or hawkish BoJ tone could reverse this trend.
Market Sentiment: Strongly bullish. Traders continue favoring USD/JPY on rate divergence and risk-on sentiment.
Catalysts: US CPI and PPI releases, BoJ commentary, US-Japan trade developments, and Treasury yield movements.
On July 8, optimism around global trade deals and upcoming central bank policy announcements dominate market direction. Gold retreats as risk appetite improves, while silver trades sideways awaiting clearer signals. The Aussie dollar advances ahead of a pivotal RBA decision, and the yen softens on diminished rate hike expectations. The PBOC’s steady hand on the yuan fix underscores China’s focus on exchange rate stability. Traders now look to central bank commentary and economic data releases for further cues in an increasingly optimistic but cautious environment.
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On July 7, 2025, financial markets remain jittery as investors react to growing uncertainty around global tariff negotiations. Gold (XAU/USD) drifts below $3,350, pressured by profit-taking and stronger USD flows despite modest safe-haven interest. Silver (XAG/USD) remains subdued under $37.00, struggling to capitalize on geopolitical jitters. The Euro (EUR/USD) holds below 1.1800 amid trade tensions and soft Eurozone data outlook. Commodity-linked currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) extend losses under 0.6050, while USD/CAD holds above 1.3900, supported by a firmer greenback and weaker oil prices. All eyes are now on upcoming tariff policy announcements, Eurozone retail sales, and Fed speeches.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades below $3,350, extending its pullback as traders turn cautious amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty. While modest safe-haven demand remains, gold faces selling pressure from a stronger US Dollar and reduced conviction among risk-off buyers. Concerns around global trade policy and monetary tightening continue to weigh on bullion’s short-term outlook.
Geopolitical Risks: Renewed market caution due to trade tensions and global uncertainty provides limited support, but no major conflict flare-up leaves gold directionless.
US Economic Data: Strong labor market data and upcoming inflation figures support the dollar and suppress gold’s upside momentum.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed remains cautious with no immediate rate cuts signaled; high yields reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like gold.
Trade Policy: While tariffs are a lingering concern, a lack of fresh escalation leads to mixed flows between risk assets and safe havens.
Monetary Policy: Rising global bond yields and a patient Fed outlook cap gold’s strength in the short term.
Trend: Bearish short-term tone after failing to hold above $3,375.
Resistance: $3,355, then $3,375 and $3,400.
Support: $3,335, followed by $3,300 and $3,275.
Forecast: Gold may continue to drift between $3,335–$3,375. A break below $3,335 could open downside toward $3,300, while any resurgence in safe-haven demand may lift it back above $3,355.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to bearish as traders remain cautious on gold amid lack of a clear risk trigger. Dollar strength limits upside.
Catalysts: US inflation data, Fed speakers, bond yield shifts, and geopolitical developments.
Silver (XAG/USD) holds below $37.00, struggling to recover recent losses despite renewed safe-haven interest in global markets. While geopolitical caution and a weaker US Dollar offer modest support, silver remains under pressure as industrial demand concerns and lingering macro uncertainty dampen momentum. The metal appears directionless as investors await clearer signals from economic data and central bank commentary.
Geopolitical Risks: Market anxiety over global trade and growth outlook sparks mild safe-haven interest, but not enough to fuel a breakout.
US Economic Data: A strong jobs report and anticipation of this week’s inflation figures drive cautious sentiment, limiting silver’s upside.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer policy expectations limit enthusiasm for non-yielding metals like silver.
Trade Policy: Ongoing concerns over trade deals and global demand put a lid on silver’s industrial appeal, especially in the short term.
Monetary Policy: Elevated yields and a firm dollar backdrop continue to weigh on silver’s near-term outlook.
Trend: Bearish short-term after rejection from multi-month highs.
Resistance: $37.00, then $37.30 and $37.75.
Support: $36.20, then $35.75 and $35.20.
Forecast: Silver may consolidate in a $35.75–$37.00 range. A move below $36.20 could invite deeper losses, while a sustained break above $37.00 might open the path toward $37.75.
Market Sentiment: Mixed sentiment; silver lacks conviction as traders balance safe-haven flows with demand worries.
Catalysts: US CPI, industrial production data, dollar strength, and global growth forecasts.
EUR/USD remains capped below 1.1800, weighed down by renewed trade concerns and a resurgent US Dollar. The Euro struggles for direction ahead of key Eurozone retail sales data, with market sentiment tilting cautious amid global uncertainty. The pair has failed to mount a sustained recovery after last week’s pullback and continues to trade defensively in early week flows.
Geopolitical Risks: Broader global trade uncertainty limits euro bullishness, while the lack of regional geopolitical shocks keeps risk appetite stable.
US Economic Data: Strong US data reinforces dollar strength. Upcoming CPI and Fed commentary are likely to be pivotal for short-term direction.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed rhetoric and sticky inflation outlook support the USD, reducing upside for EUR/USD.
Trade Policy: Persistent fears over global tariff actions hurt sentiment, with the Euro sensitive to disruptions in global supply chains.
Trend: Bearish tone persists below the 1.1800 barrier.
Resistance: 1.1800, then 1.1840 and 1.1885.
Support: 1.1750, then 1.1700 and 1.1675.
Forecast: EUR/USD may continue to grind lower toward 1.1750 if US data surprises to the upside. A break above 1.1800 could open room for recovery toward 1.1840.
Market Sentiment: Bearish to neutral as dollar strength weighs on the pair. Euro traders remain cautious ahead of Eurozone data.
Catalysts: Eurozone retail sales, US CPI and PPI figures, ECB remarks, and global trade policy headlines.
NZD/USD extends its downside below 0.6050, pressured by cautious risk sentiment and lingering trade deal uncertainty. The Kiwi remains vulnerable as markets await clarity on tariff negotiations, while a stronger US Dollar and falling commodity sentiment weigh on New Zealand’s export outlook. The pair has now broken through key support zones, signaling ongoing bearish momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: Lingering uncertainty around global trade and tariffs dampens risk appetite, pushing investors away from high-beta currencies like the Kiwi.
US Economic Data: Strong US job data and expectations for firm inflation keep the Dollar supported, limiting upside potential for NZD/USD.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s hawkish tone and delayed rate-cut expectations maintain a yield advantage for the USD over the NZD.
Trade Policy: Lack of progress on trade deals — particularly US-China — clouds the demand outlook for New Zealand exports.
Monetary Policy: The RBNZ remains cautious amid slowing domestic demand. Divergence from the Fed adds pressure to the NZD.
Trend: Bearish continuation as the pair breaks below 0.6050.
Resistance: 0.6085, then 0.6120 and 0.6150.
Support: 0.6025, then 0.6000 and 0.5970.
Forecast: NZD/USD may test 0.6000 if bearish momentum persists. A reversal above 0.6085 would be needed to neutralize short-term pressure.
Market Sentiment: Bearish, driven by risk-off flows and limited appetite for commodity-linked FX.
Catalysts: US CPI data, global trade developments, Chinese growth signals, and New Zealand business confidence reports.
USD/CAD trades above 1.3900, holding modest gains as sliding oil prices and a firmer US Dollar continue to support the pair. The Canadian Dollar faces pressure amid softer crude demand and a cautious risk environment, while the Greenback remains broadly bid ahead of key US inflation data. The pair trades within a bullish structure as energy-linked sentiment weakens further.
Geopolitical Risks: No direct threat to oil supply, but lingering macro uncertainty and cautious global sentiment support USD over CAD.
US Economic Data: Strong labor market signals and anticipation of firm CPI figures keep USD well-supported heading into the week.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s hawkish tone favors USD/CAD upside, particularly as the BoC adopts a more neutral stance.
Trade Policy: Global trade concerns weigh on energy demand expectations, dragging crude lower and hurting CAD.
Monetary Policy: With rate cut bets cooling for both central banks, USD maintains an edge due to relatively stronger economic performance.
Trend: Bullish continuation above 1.3900.
Resistance: 1.3940, then 1.3975 and 1.4000.
Support: 1.3860, followed by 1.3820 and 1.3780.
Forecast: USD/CAD may push toward 1.3975 if oil prices remain weak and US data confirms Fed hawkishness. A drop below 1.3860 would suggest short-term consolidation.
Market Sentiment: Bullish for USD/CAD as oil weakness and US strength combine to drive flows.
Catalysts: US CPI, EIA crude oil inventories, BoC statements, and global commodity trends.
As July 7 unfolds, markets grapple with renewed trade anxieties and global tariff uncertainty. Gold and silver remain under pressure despite underlying geopolitical risks. The USD strengthens broadly, capping gains in major FX pairs and driving fresh downside in NZD/USD and EUR/USD. USD/CAD trades firmer as oil prices slump. With key economic data and policy clues on the horizon, traders remain cautious and reactive to headlines.
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On July 4, 2025, global markets react cautiously as U.S. President Trump announces plans to begin issuing tariff letters starting Friday, sparking fresh uncertainty over global trade. The U.S. Dollar trades mixed—supported by stronger-than-expected jobs data that reduces pressure on the Fed to cut rates, yet weighed down by renewed geopolitical tension. USD/CAD weakens toward 1.3600, testing a two-week low as oil prices rebound. The Australian Dollar slips below 0.6650 in response to robust U.S. labor figures. NZD/USD remains range-bound near 0.6050 amid unclear trade developments. USD/CNY holds steady after the PBOC sets a slightly higher reference rate, signaling caution. GBP/USD steadies near 1.3650 as sterling traders weigh tariff risks against firm UK macro conditions.
USD/CAD trades just below 1.3600, marking a two-week low as the pair struggles to sustain upside momentum. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, broad risk sentiment and recovering oil prices are helping support the Canadian Dollar. The market remains cautious ahead of potential trade tariff escalations following President Trump’s announcement.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s move to reintroduce tariffs adds uncertainty to global trade, but Canada remains less directly impacted for now.
US Economic Data: Strong NFP data bolsters the USD, yet USD/CAD remains pressured by soft technicals and firmer crude oil.
FOMC Outcome: Solid labor figures reduce the urgency for Fed rate cuts, offering USD support—though not enough to reverse CAD gains.
Trade Policy: The threat of new U.S. tariffs raises concern for global growth, but USD/CAD has yet to reflect panic.
Monetary Policy: Bank of Canada holds a steady outlook, but resilient oil and inflation could limit USD/CAD upside.
Trend: Bearish short-term after rejection from 1.3665.
Resistance: 1.3620, followed by 1.3665 and 1.3700.
Support: 1.3580, then 1.3550 and 1.3520.
Forecast: USD/CAD could test 1.3550 if crude strengthens and risk-on flows resume. A rebound above 1.3620 may signal consolidation.
Market Sentiment: Bearish tilt as CAD finds support from oil recovery and easing Fed expectations.
Catalysts: US ISM Services PMI, oil inventory data, Trump tariff developments, BoC comments.
AUD/USD trades near 0.6630, under pressure after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data lifted the U.S. Dollar and cooled expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts. The Australian Dollar also faces domestic headwinds as traders digest recent softer inflation figures and lingering global trade uncertainty tied to President Trump’s tariff warnings.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s tariff plans weigh on global sentiment, particularly affecting risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data boosts the greenback and raises doubts about near-term Fed easing, pressuring AUD.
FOMC Outcome: With less urgency for cuts, interest rate divergence between the Fed and RBA narrows, favoring the USD.
Trade Policy: Rising trade tension risks, particularly with China, negatively affect AUD due to Australia’s economic dependence on Chinese demand.
Monetary Policy: The RBA remains dovish amid weak domestic CPI data, reinforcing downside risks for the Aussie.
Trend: Bearish short-term bias after rejection from 0.6680.
Resistance: 0.6660, followed by 0.6680 and 0.6725.
Support: 0.6610, then 0.6585 and 0.6550.
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6585 if USD strength continues. A break above 0.6660 needed to relieve pressure and target 0.6725.
Market Sentiment: Bearish; AUD is weighed down by risk aversion and dovish RBA outlook.
Catalysts: US ISM Services PMI, Chinese PMI, Trump tariff updates, Australian trade balance data.
NZD/USD trades near 0.6050, holding steady in a narrow range as traders await clarity on President Trump’s trade tariff announcements. While the US Dollar gains some support from strong jobs data, the Kiwi remains resilient amid cautious risk sentiment and a lack of domestic catalysts. Markets remain on alert for any escalation in U.S.-China tensions, which would significantly impact the New Zealand Dollar.
Geopolitical Risks: Trade uncertainty returns as Trump announces plans to issue new tariff letters, keeping NZD/USD capped by global risk aversion.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. payrolls data supports the dollar, though NZD remains relatively stable as investors wait for clearer trade direction.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish hold from the Fed keeps USD supported; markets push back expectations of rate cuts, limiting NZD upside.
Trade Policy: New Zealand’s reliance on Chinese trade means heightened exposure to any U.S.-China tariff escalation.
Trend: Neutral to bearish; rangebound behavior below 0.6075.
Resistance: 0.6075, then 0.6100 and 0.6145.
Support: 0.6030, followed by 0.6000 and 0.5975.
Forecast: NZD/USD may continue consolidating unless Trump’s tariff timeline triggers a breakout. A break below 0.6030 opens the door to 0.6000.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish; traders remain indecisive as tariff risk overshadows domestic drivers.
Catalysts: Trump’s tariff announcements, Chinese economic data, US ISM Services PMI, RBNZ statements.
USD/CNY hovers around 7.1535 after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the daily reference rate slightly higher than the previous fix of 7.1523. The adjustment reflects cautious policy calibration as Beijing monitors growing trade tensions following U.S. President Trump’s renewed tariff warnings. The Yuan remains stable but vulnerable to further depreciation if trade risks escalate.
Geopolitical Risks: Renewed U.S.-China trade tension due to Trump’s proposed tariffs puts downside pressure on the Yuan and prompts a conservative PBOC fix.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. jobs data supports USD strength, reinforcing the pair’s resilience above 7.15.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed outlook keeps USD bid, but PBOC is likely to defend 7.15–7.20 zone to prevent excessive Yuan weakness.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff announcement expected Friday increases uncertainty; China’s response will be crucial in guiding CNY flows.
Monetary Policy: PBOC maintains accommodative stance while keeping Yuan stability in focus amid capital outflow concerns.
Trend: Mildly bullish bias as USD/CNY holds above recent support.
Resistance: 7.1600, followed by 7.1730 and 7.1900.
Support: 7.1400, then 7.1250 and 7.1100.
Forecast: USD/CNY could retest 7.1600 if Trump’s tariff threat escalates. A break below 7.1400 may signal PBOC’s active support for Yuan strength.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish on USD/CNY; traders monitor PBOC signals and Washington’s next steps.
Catalysts: Trump tariff letters, PBOC monetary policy guidance, Chinese inflation and trade data, global risk sentiment.
GBP/USD holds steady near 1.3650 as markets weigh strong U.S. labor data against rising trade uncertainty following President Trump’s announcement of new tariff letters. While the dollar gains modest support, the British Pound remains resilient amid risk-sensitive flows and relatively stable UK fundamentals.
Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade plans triggers cautious positioning in risk assets, limiting GBP upside.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data lifts the dollar, but GBP/USD remains firm as risk appetite does not fully reverse.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed stance supports USD, though lack of immediate UK rate cuts keeps GBP stable in relative terms.
Trade Policy: While Brexit-related trade pressures have faded, global tariff risks remain a headwind for sterling if global growth is impacted.
Monetary Policy: BoE maintains a steady policy stance; divergence with Fed is muted, helping GBP/USD stay balanced for now.
Trend: Neutral-to-bullish; pair holds above 1.3620 despite pressure on risk assets.
Resistance: 1.3675, then 1.3730 and 1.3860.
Support: 1.3620, followed by 1.3570 and 1.3500.
Forecast: GBP/USD may trade sideways between 1.3620 and 1.3675 until clarity emerges on U.S. trade actions or fresh UK data surprises.
Market Sentiment: Mixed; traders remain cautious, balancing Fed strength against risk of global economic disruption from tariffs.
Catalysts: Trump trade letters, UK economic releases, US ISM Services PMI, risk sentiment shifts.
On July 4, 2025, the U.S. Dollar trades unevenly across key markets as strong economic data clashes with rising trade policy uncertainty. Risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi struggle, while USD/CAD declines on improving crude sentiment. GBP/USD stays firm above 1.3650 as traders balance Fed strength against global tariff risks. The PBOC’s Yuan fix reflects growing caution as the U.S.-China trade narrative resurfaces. Market participants now look ahead to U.S. ISM Services PMI, Chinese economic releases, and follow-through on Trump’s tariff plans for further direction.
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On July 3, 2025, global markets react to shifting interest rate expectations, with currencies showing sharp divergence and silver maintaining its strength. The Japanese Yen edges higher after BoJ board member Takata clarified that the central bank is merely pausing—not ending—its rate hike cycle. GBP/USD struggles to gain traction ahead of key UK labor data, while the Australian Dollar slips following a disappointing trade surplus figure. EUR/USD holds near 1.1800, buoyed by growing expectations of Fed rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) remains supported above $35.40, favored by bulls as dollar pressure persists and safe-haven demand steadies.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $36.10, staying firmly supported above the key $35.40 horizontal level. The metal continues to benefit from a softer US Dollar, dovish Fed expectations, and renewed investor interest in safe-haven assets amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Bullish momentum remains intact as long as price action stays above critical support.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to support silver as a partial safe-haven, even amid improved global sentiment.
US Economic Data: Growing anticipation of weaker US labor data has weighed on the Dollar, supporting silver’s recent resilience.
FOMC Outcome: Markets increasingly expect rate cuts in H2 2025, helping non-yielding assets like silver maintain an upside bias.
Trade Policy: Reduced tensions in global trade reduce industrial demand concerns, adding a positive tilt to silver’s outlook.
Monetary Policy: Broader expectations of global easing cycles continue to underpin precious metals, with silver benefiting from both monetary and industrial narratives.
Trend: Bullish as long as price holds above $35.40.
Resistance: $36.40, then $36.75 and $37.20.
Support: $35.40, then $35.00 and $34.50.
Forecast: A sustained move above $36.40 may open a path to $37.00+. A break below $35.40 would challenge the current bullish structure.
Market Sentiment: Bullish to neutral; silver holds favor among traders as long as Fed cut bets remain firm.
Catalysts: US NFP and ISM Services data, Fed commentary, global PMI prints, and USD performance.
USD/JPY trades near 145.20, slightly lower on the day after Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymaker Hajime Takata clarified that the central bank is only pausing its rate hike cycle—not ending it. The statement triggered fresh JPY demand as traders scaled back expectations for prolonged dovishness. Meanwhile, broader dollar softness due to rising Fed cut bets adds further downward pressure on the pair.
Geopolitical Risks: Risk appetite is firm, limiting typical yen haven flows. However, the BoJ’s hawkish tilt adds independent JPY strength.
US Economic Data: Expectations of weaker jobs data and slowing inflation have dented USD appeal, contributing to USD/JPY downside.
FOMC Outcome: With markets pricing in Fed rate cuts by Q4 2025, US-Japan rate differentials may narrow, reducing support for USD/JPY.
Trade Policy: No major trade disruptions currently; traders focus on yield and central bank policy as key drivers.
Monetary Policy: BoJ’s signaling of future hikes contrasts with the Fed’s potential cuts, creating a new layer of support for the yen.
Trend: Bearish short-term bias after failure to hold above 146.00.
Resistance: 145.90, then 146.60 and 147.20.
Support: 144.80, followed by 144.20 and 143.50.
Forecast: A break below 144.80 may trigger deeper downside toward 144.00. Only a move above 146.00 would stabilize the pair.
Market Sentiment: Bearish; traders now reassess BoJ outlook while USD softens on macro data risks.
Catalysts: US NFP, BoJ inflation expectations, Japanese wage data, and any updated forward guidance from the Fed.
GBP/USD trades near 1.3585, struggling to regain bullish momentum ahead of key UK labor market data. While risk sentiment remains broadly supportive, the pound has underperformed amid caution around employment figures, which may influence the Bank of England’s policy direction. A softer US Dollar helps limit downside, but traders are hesitant to take aggressive positions before key data is released.
Geopolitical Risks: Global risk appetite stays firm, supporting high-beta currencies like GBP, but not enough to offset domestic data uncertainty.
US Economic Data: A weaker USD helps GBP/USD maintain current levels, though markets await further US labor updates for direction.
FOMC Outcome: Fed rate cut expectations weigh on the dollar, offering limited upside support for GBP/USD.
Trade Policy: No major trade disruptions between the UK and EU, but global trade outlook remains a background driver for GBP.
Trend: Sideways to mildly bearish; consolidating near 1.3580.
Resistance: 1.3610, then 1.3670 and 1.3730.
Support: 1.3540, followed by 1.3500 and 1.3440.
Forecast: GBP/USD may remain range-bound between 1.3540 and 1.3610. A strong labor print could push it higher, while weak data risks a dip toward 1.3500.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to cautious; X posts and positioning reflect hesitancy ahead of UK jobs data.
Catalysts: UK labor report, US NFP data, BoE commentary, and any surprise Fed statements.
AUD/USD trades around 0.6760, easing from recent highs after Australia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to AUD 2.24B in May, well below market expectations. The weaker-than-expected print raised concerns over export momentum and weighs on the Aussie despite supportive global risk sentiment. A softer US Dollar offers some cushion, but local data disappointments are limiting upside traction.
Geopolitical Risks: A Ongoing risk-on sentiment offers limited support for AUD, though its response is muted by poor domestic data.
US Economic Data: Softer US indicators and rising Fed rate cut bets help cap USD strength, allowing AUD/USD to hold near key support.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed expectations may support commodity-linked currencies in the near term, despite Australia’s weaker fundamentals.
Trade Policy: Australia’s weakening trade surplus reflects external demand concerns. Traders are also watching China’s demand trajectory.
Monetary Policy: RBA remains on hold amid cooling inflation, and today’s data further dims hopes for any hawkish tilt.
Trend: Neutral to bearish; short-term pullback from 0.6800 highs.
Resistance: 0.6780, then 0.6815 and 0.6850.
Support: 0.6740, followed by 0.6700 and 0.6675.
Forecast: AUD/USD may stay capped under 0.6780 in the short term. A break below 0.6740 could spark a move toward 0.6700.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish; traders cite weak trade data as a drag despite overall risk-friendly conditions.
Catalysts: Australian business confidence, China PMI updates, US NFP report, and Fed commentary.
EUR/USD trades around 1.1800, showing steady upside momentum as markets increasingly price in a Fed rate cut by the fourth quarter of 2025. The US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of Friday’s NFP report, while the euro benefits from relatively stable Eurozone economic expectations and improving risk sentiment.
Geopolitical Risks: Risk-on environment supports euro resilience; lack of new shocks maintains upward pressure on EUR/USD.
US Economic Data: Softer US data and weak labor market signals fuel rate-cut bets, putting broad pressure on the dollar.
FOMC Outcome: Markets are increasingly convinced that the Fed will begin cutting rates later this year, weakening the USD across the board.
Trade Policy: No major developments, though Eurozone trade dynamics remain stable with modest export demand recovery.
Monetary Policy: The ECB remains cautious, but steady policy outlook contrasts with a softening Fed, offering relative support to the euro.
Trend: Bullish; pair maintains upward channel above 1.1760.
Resistance: 1.1825, then 1.1860 and 1.1900.
Support: 1.1760, followed by 1.1725 and 1.1700.
Forecast: EUR/USD could climb toward 1.1860 if NFP confirms labor softness. A break below 1.1760 would weaken bullish structure.
Market Sentiment: Bullish; traders favor euro exposure as Fed cut expectations solidify.
Catalysts: US NFP and ISM data, ECB meeting minutes, Eurozone inflation prints, and Fed speakers.
On July 3, traders weigh evolving monetary policy cues across major economies. While the Fed’s softening stance underpins EUR/USD and silver, the BoJ’s hawkish pause supports modest JPY gains. GBP/USD remains range-bound ahead of labor market data, and AUD slips on weaker trade performance. With the spotlight now on upcoming US NFP data, labor figures from the UK, and global inflation prints, markets brace for potentially pivotal moves in major FX pairs and commodities.
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