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Global financial markets on June 3, 2025, are navigating a complex landscape of escalating trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and shifting monetary policy expectations. The US Dollar (DXY at 98.80) recovers from a six-week low, driven by technical corrections and anticipation of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, but faces headwinds from Federal Reserve rate-cut bets and US fiscal concerns. Silver (XAG/USD) dips to $34.15 on profit-taking, while gold (XAU/USD) retreats from a $3,400 peak to $3,355 amid USD strength. EUR/USD holds near 1.1420, GBP/USD slips to 1.3515, and USD/JPY rises to 143.25 as the Japanese Yen weakens slightly despite hawkish Bank of Japan signals. AUD/USD weakens to $0.6468 after dovish Reserve Bank of Australia comments, and WTI crude holds at $61.45, supported by OPEC+’s output hike. Key catalysts include US JOLTS Job Openings, Eurozone HICP inflation, BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings, and Friday’s NFP report, with trade tariffs and Middle East tensions in focus.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $34.15 per troy ounce, down 1.70% after hitting a near seven-month high, driven by profit-taking amid easing trade tensions and a recovering US Dollar (DXY at 98.80).
Trade Tariffs: US President Donald Trump’s plan to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, effective June 4 (deadline July 8), fuels uncertainty, though US-China talks (with China suspending some tariffs) temper safe-haven demand for silver.
US Economic Data: The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in May (vs. 49.5 expected), signaling a third month of contraction, weakening the USD and supporting silver. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), expected to show 130K job growth and a steady 4.2% unemployment rate, could sway USD strength.
Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical risks, including Ukraine-Russia drone attacks and Gaza conflicts, sustain silver’s safe-haven appeal, though positive equity market sentiment caps gains.
Industrial Demand: Silver’s role in electronics and solar energy, bolstered by China’s 1,500 GW solar capacity, supports prices, but China’s Caixin PMI drop to 48.3 in May signals industrial slowdown risks.
Monetary Policy: Fed rate-cut bets (70% chance for two 25 bps cuts in 2025, per CME FedWatch) lower the opportunity cost of holding silver, supporting prices, though a recovering USD limits upside.
Trend: Silver is consolidating within a rectangular pattern, with a neutral-to-bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, indicating potential for upward momentum, though prices are below the 9-day EMA ($34.45).
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at the 9-day EMA ($34.45), followed by the rectangle’s upper boundary at $34.80, aligning with the seven-week high of $34.90 (April 24). A breakout above $34.90 could target the seven-month high of $35.80 (March 28).
Support Levels: Immediate support at the 50-day EMA ($33.10), followed by the rectangle’s lower boundary at $32.80. A break below could test the six-week low of $32.50 (May 15).
Forecast: If silver holds above $33.10, it may retest $34.80. A strong NFP (above 130K) could strengthen the USD, pushing prices toward $32.80, while a weak NFP (below 100K) may drive silver toward $35.00, aligning with Long Forecast’s bullish 2025 range ($34-$37).
Market Sentiment: Posts on X reflect bullish sentiment, with silver hitting $34.00+ due to safe-haven demand and solar-driven supply deficits. However, profit-taking and tariff uncertainties temper gains.
Catalysts: US JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday), US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday), progress in US-China trade talks (deadline July 8), and geopolitical escalations in Ukraine-Russia or the Middle East.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,355, down from a near four-week peak of $3,400, driven by USD recovery (DXY at 98.80) and profit-taking amid positive equity markets.
Trade Tensions: Trump’s 50% steel and aluminum tariffs and US-China trade disputes (with China suspending tariffs) sustain uncertainty, reinforcing gold’s safe-haven status.
US Economic Data: The ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.5 signals continued contraction, weakening the USD and supporting gold. The NFP (130K expected) could bolster the USD if strong, pressuring gold prices.
Geopolitical Risks: Escalating conflicts, including Ukraine-Russia drone attacks and Gaza bombardments, boost safe-haven demand for gold.
Monetary Policy: Fed rate-cut expectations (two 25 bps cuts in 2025, per Fed Governor Christopher Waller) and US fiscal concerns (Moody’s projects 134% debt-to-GDP by 2035) limit USD upside, supporting gold.
Chinese Demand: Ongoing gold purchases by China, as noted in X posts, provide a tailwind for XAU/USD.
Trend: Bullish, following a breakout above the $3,324-$3,326 hurdle. RSI in positive territory supports upside momentum, but $3,355 resistance-turned-support is a critical level.
Resistance Levels: $3,400, followed by $3,430-$3,432. A breakout could target the all-time peak of $3,500 (April 2025).
Support Levels: $3,326-$3,324, then $3,300 and $3,286-$3,285.
Forecast: Gold may retest $3,400 if it holds above $3,326. A strong NFP could push prices toward $3,300, while a weak NFP may drive prices to $3,430.
Market Sentiment: X posts reflect bullish sentiment for gold, with $3,500 in sight driven by trade and geopolitical risks. Long Forecast projects $3,600 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: US JOLTS Job Openings, US Nonfarm Payrolls, Fedspeaks (Waller, Goolsbee), and progress in US-China trade negotiations.
EUR/USD trades at $1.1420, down slightly after registering over 0.50% gains in the previous session, as the USD recovers (DXY at 98.80) amid technical corrections and trade tariff concerns.
Trade Tariffs: Trump’s 50% steel and aluminum tariffs, effective June 4, prompt threats of EU retaliation, pressuring EUR/USD, though the US-EU tariff delay until July 9 offers some support.
US Economic Data: The weak ISM Manufacturing PMI (48.5 vs. 49.5 expected) limits USD strength, but the NFP (130K expected) could boost the USD if robust.
Eurozone Data: Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data, due Tuesday, may influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) June 12 policy outlook (2.5% deposit rate by Q3 2025, per S&P Global).
Monetary Policy: Fed rate-cut bets (70% probability for two cuts in 2025) contrast with the ECB’s cautious stance (Knot’s murky inflation outlook), providing relative support for the EUR.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T tax bill and stagflation fears cap USD upside, aiding EUR/USD.
Trend: Bullish, holding above 1.1400. RSI above 58 favors upside momentum, though USD recovery tests this trend.
Resistance Levels: 1.1450, followed by 1.1500. A breakout could target 1.1600.
Support Levels: 1.1400, then 1.1300 and 1.1200.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1450 if HICP data leans hawkish. A strong NFP could push the pair to 1.1300, while a weak NFP may drive it toward 1.1500.
Market Sentiment: X posts suggest EUR/USD resilience, with 1.15 possible if USD weakens further. CoinCodex forecasts an average of 1.14 for 2025.
Catalysts: Eurozone HICP inflation, US JOLTS Job Openings, US Nonfarm Payrolls, and developments in EU-US trade talks.
GBP/USD trades at $1.3515, down from a multi-day peak of $1.3560, as USD buying emerges (DXY at 98.80) ahead of Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearings.
Monetary Policy: Expectations of a BoE pause on June 18 (38 bps cuts projected for 2025, per X posts) and persistent UK CPI at 3.5% YoY support GBP, contrasting with the Fed’s dovish stance (two cuts expected in 2025).
US Economic Data: The weak ISM PMI (48.5) limits USD gains, but a strong NFP (130K expected) could strengthen the USD, pressuring GBP/USD.
Trade Tensions: Trump’s 50% tariffs raise global uncertainty, capping GBP upside.
BoE Hearings: Comments from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey during the hearings may signal tighter policy, potentially boosting GBP.
Trend: Bullish, with support above 1.3500. RSI near 60 favors buyers, though USD strength tests momentum.
Resistance Levels: 1.3560, followed by 1.3600 (February 2022 high).
Support Levels: 1.3500, then 1.3415 and 1.3375 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
Forecast: GBP/USD may retest 1.3560 if BoE signals a hawkish stance. A strong NFP could push the pair to 1.3415, while a weak NFP may drive it toward 1.3600.
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight GBP strength, with 1.36 possible if BoE remains firm. Long Forecast projects 1.37 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings, US JOLTS Job Openings, US Nonfarm Payrolls, and Fedspeaks.
USD/JPY trades at $143.25, up slightly as the JPY weakens amid positive equity markets and concerns over BoJ bond purchase tapering, despite hawkish BoJ signals.
Monetary Policy: BoJ rate-hike expectations (Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments, Tokyo CPI at 3.6% YoY) support the JPY, contrasting with the Fed’s dovish outlook (70% probability for two rate cuts in 2025).
BoJ Tapering: Calls to slow bond purchase tapering beyond 2026 (per former BoJ member Makoto Sakurai) weaken the JPY, lifting USD/JPY.
Geopolitical Risks: Escalating Ukraine-Russia and Gaza tensions bolster the JPY’s safe-haven status, capping USD/JPY upside.
US Economic Data: The weak ISM PMI (48.5) pressures the USD, but a strong NFP could reverse losses, supporting USD/JPY.
Trend: Bearish, following a breakdown below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 143.60. RSI below 50 supports downside momentum.
Resistance Levels: 143.60 (200-hour SMA), followed by 144.00 and 144.45.
Support Levels: 142.40, then 142.10 (weekly low) and 141.60.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 142.40 if JPY strength persists. A strong NFP could push the pair to 144.00, while a weak NFP may drive it toward 141.60.
Market Sentiment: X posts suggest JPY resilience, with 142.00 in sight if safe-haven demand grows. Long Forecast projects 140 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: US JOLTS Job Openings, US Nonfarm Payrolls, BoJ’s June 16-17 meeting, and geopolitical developments.
AUD/USD trades at $0.6468, down after registering around 1% gains in the previous session, as RBA’s dovish meeting minutes and weak Chinese PMI data (Caixin at 48.3) weigh on sentiment.
RBA Policy: May meeting minutes favor a cautious 25 bps rate cut, with Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warning of US tariff impacts, capping AUD upside.
China’s Economy: China’s Caixin PMI dropped to 48.3 (vs. 50.6 expected), pressuring AUD, though the NBS PMI at 49.5 offers some support. Potential PBoC stimulus (Pledged Supplementary Lending boost) could lift sentiment.
US Economic Data: The weak ISM PMI (48.5) limits USD strength, but a strong NFP could boost the USD, pressuring AUD/USD.
Trade Tensions: Trump’s 50% tariffs and US-China trade disputes (with China suspending tariffs) add volatility to AUD/USD.
Trend: Bullish, within an ascending channel pattern. RSI above 50 supports upside, with prices above the 9-day EMA ($0.6456).
Resistance Levels: $0.6537 (seven-month high), followed by $0.6660 (channel’s upper boundary).
Support Levels: $0.6456 (9-day EMA), then $0.6450 and $0.6393 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test $0.6537 if USD weakens further. A strong NFP could push the pair to $0.6393, while a weak NFP may drive it toward $0.6660.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD resilience, with 0.65+ possible if China’s economy stabilizes. CoinCodex projects 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: US JOLTS Job Openings, US Nonfarm Payrolls, US-China trade talks, and updates on Chinese stimulus measures.
On June 3, 2025, markets remain volatile as Trump’s 50% steel and aluminum tariffs, effective tomorrow, and US-China trade disputes fuel uncertainty, while geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, Gaza, and Yemen bolster safe-haven assets like gold ($3,355), silver ($34.15), and the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY at 143.25). EUR/USD ($1.1420) and GBP/USD ($1.3515) face pressure from a recovering USD, AUD/USD ($0.6468) is weighed down by RBA dovishness, and WTI crude ($61.45) holds firm amid OPEC+ output hikes. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report, BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings, and Eurozone HICP inflation data will drive near-term market movements, with trade negotiations and Middle East developments remaining critical. Stay tuned for further updates as markets react to these pivotal catalysts.
