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On June 4, 2025, global financial markets are shaped by optimism over a potential US-Canada trade deal ahead of the G7 Summit (June 15-17), alongside persistent geopolitical tensions and monetary policy developments. The US Dollar (DXY at 99.10) edges higher on technical corrections and robust JOLTS data (7.39M job openings), but faces headwinds from Fed rate-cut bets (70% for two 25 bps cuts in 2025) and US fiscal concerns (Moody’s Aa1 downgrade). Gold (XAU/USD) dips to $3,355 after hitting $3,373, while USD/JPY climbs to 144.30 as the Japanese Yen weakens amid BoJ tapering speculation. AUD/JPY holds at 93.10, USD/CAD stays flat at 1.3720, AUD/USD trades at 0.6470 after weak Australian GDP (0.2% QoQ), and GBP/USD rises to 1.3520 on BoE caution. WTI crude remains steady at $61.45, supported by geopolitical risks. Key catalysts include the BoC rate decision, US ADP report, ISM Services PMI, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), with Middle East tensions and US-China trade talks in focus.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,355 per troy ounce, down from an Asian session high of $3,373, pressured by a modest USD recovery (DXY at 99.10) and positive equity markets.
US-Canada Trade Deal: Optimism over a potential deal before the G7 Summit (June 15-17) reduces safe-haven demand, capping gold upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing Ukraine-Russia drone attacks and Middle East conflicts (Gaza, Iran nuclear tensions) sustain gold’s safe-haven appeal.
US Economic Data: JOLTS Job Openings at 7.39M (vs. 7.1M expected) signal labor market resilience, supporting USD and pressuring gold. The upcoming NFP (130K expected) could further influence USD strength.
Monetary Policy: Fed rate-cut bets (70% for two 25 bps cuts in 2025, per CME FedWatch) and fiscal concerns (134% debt-to-GDP by 2035, per Moody’s) limit USD gains, supporting gold.
US-China Trade Talks: A scheduled Trump-Xi call on Friday keeps trade war fears alive, bolstering gold.
Trend: Bullish, with a breakout above $3,324-$3,326. RSI in positive territory supports upside, but $3,355 is a key support level.
Resistance: $3,380, then $3,400 (multi-week high). A breakout could target $3,500 (April peak).
Support: $3,326-$3,324, then $3,300 and $3,286-$3,285.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,380 if geopolitical tensions escalate. A strong NFP (>130K) could push prices to $3,300; a weak NFP (<100K) may drive $3,400.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold holding firm near $3,354-$3,392, driven by safe-haven flows and trade uncertainty. Long Forecast projects $3,600 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: BoC rate decision, US ADP report, ISM Services PMI, NFP, Fedspeaks (Bostic, Goolsbee, Cook), and US-China trade developments.
USD/JPY trades at 144.30, a weekly high, as the JPY weakens amid positive risk sentiment and BoJ tapering concerns, despite hawkish BoJ signals.
Monetary Policy: BoJ rate-hike bets (Ueda’s cautious remarks, Tokyo CPI at 3.6% YoY) support JPY, but calls to slow bond tapering beyond 2026 weaken it. Fed rate-cut bets (70% for two cuts) cap USD upside.
Japan Services PMI: Revised up to 51.0 from 50.8, signaling service-sector expansion, bolsters BoJ hike expectations, limiting JPY losses.
Geopolitical Risks: Ukraine-Russia and Middle East tensions support JPY’s safe-haven status, capping USD/JPY gains.
US Economic Data: JOLTS at 7.39M supports USD, with NFP (130K expected) as a key driver.
Trend: Bullish, with recovery above 143.00. RSI gaining traction on 4-hour charts, but 200-period SMA (144.30) is a hurdle.
Resistance: 144.75-$3,380, then $3,400 (multi-week high). A breakout could target $3,500 (April peak).
Support: 143.50-143.45, then 143.00 and 142.40-142.35 (weekly low).
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 145.00 if USD strengthens post-NFP. A weak NFP could push to 142.40.
Market Sentiment: X posts note JPY caution ahead of Fed remarks, with 142.00 in sight if safe-haven demand grows. Long Forecast sees 140 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: BoC decision, US ADP, ISM Services PMI, NFP, BoJ’s June 16-17 meeting, geopolitical risks.
AUD/JPY trades at 93.10, holding positive ground despite weak Australian GDP (0.2% QoQ), supported by JPY softness and risk-on sentiment.
Australian Data: Q1 GDP growth at 0.2% (vs. 0.4% expected) and annual 1.3% (vs. 1.5% expected) pressure AUD. Services PMI at 50.6 signals slow expansion.
JPY Dynamics: BoJ tapering concerns and positive risk tone weaken JPY, lifting AUD/JPY.
US-China Trade: Upcoming Trump-Xi call and Chinese PMI weakness (Caixin at 48.3) add volatility, impacting AUD as a China-proxy.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA minutes (25 bps cut favored) and Hunter’s global growth caution cap AUD upside.
Trend: Bearish below 100-day EMA (93.90). RSI near 50 suggests consolidation.
Resistance: 93.90 (100-day EMA), then 94.78 (Bollinger Band upper boundary) and 95.65 (May 13 high).
Support: 91.68 (Bollinger Band lower limit), then 90.70 (April 30 low) and 90.00.
Forecast: AUD/JPY may test 93.90 if risk sentiment holds. Weak NFP could push to 91.68.
Market Sentiment: X posts reflect AUD weakness, with JPY softness providing lift. Long Forecast sees AUD/JPY at 95 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: US ADP, ISM Services PMI, NFP, Chinese stimulus updates, geopolitical risks.
USD/CAD trades flat at 1.3720, near a year-to-date low, as markets await the BoC rate decision and react to US-Canada trade deal optimism.
US-Canada Trade Deal: Reports of a potential deal before the G7 Summit (June 15-17) bolster CAD, capping USD/CAD upside.
BoC Policy: Expected to hold rates at 2.75%, with focus on the policy statement for future guidance, influencing CAD.
US Economic Data: JOLTS at 7.39M supports USD, but Fed rate-cut bets and fiscal concerns limit gains. NFP (130K expected) is critical.
Oil Prices: WTI at $61.45, down slightly, pressures commodity-linked CAD.
Trend: Bearish, near YTD lows. RSI below 50 suggests downside momentum.
Resistance: 1.3750, then 1.3800.
Support: 1.3700, then 1.3650 (October 2024 low).
Forecast: USD/CAD may test 1.3650 if BoC is hawkish or trade deal progresses. Strong NFP could push to 1.3800.
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight CAD strength near eight-month highs, driven by trade deal buzz. Long Forecast sees 1.35 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: BoC decision, US ADP, ISM Services PMI, NFP, G7 Summit trade updates.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6470, flat after weak Australian GDP (0.2% QoQ), pressured by USD recovery (DXY at 99.10) and Chinese economic concerns.
Australian Data: Q1 GDP at 0.2% (vs. 0.4% expected) and Services PMI at 50.6 weaken AUD.
RBA Policy: Dovish minutes (25 bps cut favored) and Hunter’s caution on global growth cap AUD upside.
China’s Economy: Caixin PMI at 48.3 (vs. 50.6 expected) pressures AUD, though NBS PMI at 49.5 offers support.
US Economic Data: JOLTS at 7.39M supports USD, with NFP (130K expected) as a key driver.
US-China Trade: Trump-Xi call on Friday adds volatility.
Trend: Bullish, within an ascending channel. RSI above 50 supports upside, above 9-day EMA (0.6456).
Resistance: 0.6537 (seven-month high), then 0.6670 (channel’s upper boundary).
Support: 0.6456 (9-day EMA), then 0.6450 and 0.6395 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6537 if USD weakens. Strong NFP could push to 0.6395; weak NFP may drive 0.6670.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD weakness at 64.66 US cents, with resilience possible if China stabilizes. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: BoC decision, US ADP, ISM Services PMI, NFP, Chinese stimulus updates.
WTI crude trades at $61.45, steady after a 1.9% gain, supported by geopolitical tensions but capped by global demand concerns.
Geopolitical Risks: Ukraine-Russia, Gaza, and Yemen conflicts support prices, with US-Iran nuclear talks adding volatility.
OPEC+ Output: Third hike (>411,000 bpd for July) boosts WTI, though oversupply fears persist.
US Economic Data: ISM PMI at 48.5 signals demand weakness, but a 2.8M-barrel EIA inventory draw supports prices. NFP (130K expected) could influence demand outlook.
Global Demand: Chinese PMI weakness (Caixin at 48.3) and OECD’s downgraded global growth forecast cap upside.
Trend: Neutral-to-bullish, with RSI above 50. Prices hold above $60.00 support.
Resistance: $62.00, then $63.50.
Support: $60.00, then $58.50.
Forecast: WTI may test $62.00 if tensions escalate. Strong NFP could pressure to $60.00; weak NFP may drive $63.50.
Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI at $65.67, with $65 possible if OPEC+ tightens supply. Long Forecast sees $70 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: BoC decision, US ADP, ISM Services PMI, NFP, OPEC+ updates, geopolitical risks.
On June 4, 2025, markets are energized by US-Canada trade deal optimism ahead of the G7 Summit (June 15-17), while geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, Gaza, and Yemen bolster safe-haven assets like gold ($3,355) and limit JPY losses (USD/JPY at 144.30). GBP/USD ($1.3520) gains on BoE caution, AUD/USD ($0.6470) struggles post-GDP, USD/CAD (1.3720) holds steady, and WTI crude ($61.45) remains firm amid OPEC+ hikes. The BoC rate decision, US ADP, ISM Services PMI, and Nonfarm Payrolls will drive near-term trends, with US-China trade talks and Middle East developments critical. Stay tuned as markets react to these catalysts.
