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Global markets on May 29, 2025, are reacting to a US federal court’s decision to block Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, boosting risk sentiment and pressuring safe-haven assets. The US Dollar (DXY at 100.30) rises to a weekly high, supported by hawkish FOMC minutes and strong US data, though Q1 GDP data (-0.3% expected) looms. AUD/USD weakens to 0.6410 after soft Australian capex (-0.1%), while GBP/JPY gains to 195.85 on JPY weakness. USD/JPY hits 145.91, EUR/JPY nears 164.00, and NZD/USD dips to 0.5935. Gold falls to $3,295, silver holds at $33.20, and WTI crude steadies at $61.15. US GDP, PCE, and Tokyo CPI data are key catalysts.
Current Level: DXY trades near 100.30, up 0.5%, a weekly high.
Market Dynamics: A US court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs lifts risk sentiment, supporting USD after hawkish FOMC minutes emphasized steady rates amid policy uncertainty. Strong US Consumer Confidence (98.0) and Durable Goods Orders (-6.3% vs. -7.9%) bolster the Greenback. Q1 GDP (-0.3% annualized, per CNBC) and PCE data (Thursday) are critical, with imports-driven contraction (41.3% surge) clouding outlook. US fiscal concerns (Moody’s Aa1 downgrade) and Trump’s $4T tax bill cap gains.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 100.50; support at 99.80. RSI near 55 suggests cautious bullishness, per X posts.
Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6410, down 0.4%.
Market Dynamics: Australia’s Q1 Private Capital Expenditure fell 0.1% (vs. +0.5% expected), weakening AUD. RBA’s dovish stance (65% chance of July cut) and US-China trade tensions (US tech export curbs) pressure the pair, despite China’s 3% YoY industrial profit growth. USD strength (DXY at 100.30) and tariff-block news add headwinds. Q1 GDP and US PCE data are key, with Darwin Port tensions adding volatility.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6537; support at 0.6382 (50-day EMA). RSI at 50 signals neutral bias, with downside risks to 0.5914.
Current Level: GBP/JPY trades near 195.85, up 0.4%.
Market Dynamics: JPY weakens as tariff-block news reduces safe-haven demand, lifting GBP/JPY near a multi-month high (196.30). BoJ rate-hike bets (Ueda’s 2% target focus) limit JPY losses, while USD strength (DXY at 100.30) caps GBP gains. Hot UK CPI (3.5% YoY) supports GBP, but BoE’s cautious outlook (38 bps cuts in 2025) tempers upside. Tokyo CPI (Friday) and US GDP data are focal points.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 196.40; support at 195.40. Bullish RSI above 60 targets 198.25, with 200-day SMA as a base.
GBP/JPY Forecast: Analysts on X see GBP/JPY testing 197.00 if it breaks 196.40, driven by JPY weakness and risk-on sentiment. BoJ policy tightening could cap gains, with support at 194.00 if pullbacks occur.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 145.91, up 0.74%.
Market Dynamics: Tariff-block news and Japan’s bond auction concerns (lowest demand since July) weaken JPY. USD strength (hawkish FOMC minutes) and risk-on mood lift USD/JPY to a two-week high, per X posts. BoJ’s hawkish stance (Services PPI at 3.1% YoY) and Fed rate-cut bets (two 25 bps cuts in 2025) limit JPY losses. Tokyo CPI (Friday) and Q1 GDP are key.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 146.20; support at 145.35. RSI near 60 supports upside to 147.60, per Long Forecast.
USD/JPY Forecast: Long Forecast predicts USD/JPY at 147 by May-end, with volatility expected through 2025 (low of 135 by October). X posts suggest resistance at 146.20, with Fed signals critical.
Current Level: WTI crude trades near $61.15, flat.
Market Dynamics: US-EU tariff relief and Yemen tensions support WTI, but OPEC+ output hike concerns (+411,000 bpd for July) and US-Iran nuclear talk progress cap gains. EIA inventory build (+1.328M barrels) adds bearish pressure. Q1 GDP (-0.3%) and OPEC+ meeting (May 31) are critical.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $62.00; support at $60.00. Neutral RSI near 50 awaits catalysts.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,295, down 0.2%.
Market Dynamics: Tariff-block news and USD strength (DXY at 100.30) pressure gold, with hawkish FOMC minutes adding headwinds. US fiscal concerns (Moody’s projects 134% debt-to-GDP by 2035) and geopolitical risks (Yemen strikes, Russia-Ukraine talks) limit losses. Q1 GDP (-0.3% due to 41.3% import surge) and PCE data are key, with Chinese demand supporting XAU/USD.
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,245; resistance at $3,300. RSI below 50 favors bears, with $3,215 as a downside target.
Today’s Data: US Q1 GDP (-0.3% annualized, per BEA) is expected to confirm import-driven contraction (41.3% surge), with PCE Prices QoQ and Initial Jobless Claims also due. Tokyo CPI (Friday) will shape BoJ expectations, while US PCE Price Index (Friday) is critical for Fed policy (3.6% Q1 rise).
Geopolitical Developments: Israel’s Yemen strikes and Russia-Ukraine peace talk proposals (June 2) boost safe-haven JPY, gold, and silver. US-Iran nuclear talks progress slowly, impacting WTI.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T tax bill and Moody’s Aa1 downgrade raise deficit fears (9% GDP by 2035). FOMC’s cautious stance highlights stagflation risks.
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US court’s tariff block and EU tariff delay (July 9) ease tensions, but US-China tech export curbs and China’s mineral restrictions strain relations. China’s 3% industrial profit growth supports AUD and NZD. Darwin Port tensions add AUD volatility.
Trump Tariffs Impact: The blocked “Liberation Day” tariffs (10% baseline) reduce immediate pressure, but Trump’s appeal and ongoing trade policy uncertainty could impact GDP growth (-0.9% in 2025, per Yale).
Q1 GDP Context: Q1 GDP contracted 0.3% (vs. 0.4% expected), driven by a 41.3% import surge ahead of April tariffs, per BEA. Economists note a potential Q2 rebound if imports normalize, but tariffs could slow growth to 1.6% in 2025.
Outlook
On May 29, 2025, USD strength (DXY at 100.30) pressures AUD/USD (0.6410) and NZD/USD (0.5935), while lifting USD/JPY (145.91) and GBP/JPY (195.85). Gold ($3,295) weakens, silver ($33.20) holds, and WTI ($61.15) steadies. Q1 GDP, PCE, and Tokyo CPI data will drive volatility, with tariff relief and geopolitical risks in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
