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The U.S. Dollar regained footing on Friday after a volatile week, buoyed by firm U.S. yields and renewed caution following weak Chinese trade data. Market participants digested a narrowing in China’s October trade surplus — a sign of slowing global demand — which pressured risk-linked currencies like the AUD and NZD. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen retreated after a brief rally, and USD/CAD hovered near six-month highs despite persistent speculation about eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Investors now await the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for further direction, as traders assess the balance between resilient U.S. fundamentals and fading global growth momentum.
USD/CAD remains firm above 1.4100, hovering near a six-month high as traders balance soft crude oil prices against moderating expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts. The pair’s resilience reflects underlying USD strength amid subdued risk appetite and weak Canadian data momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable energy supply and limited geopolitical escalation have capped CAD’s upside.
US Economic Data: Solid U.S. job figures continue to support the greenback, reinforcing rate cut hesitation.
FOMC Outcome: Markets have dialed back aggressive Fed easing bets, keeping USD demand intact.
Trade Policy: No major trade disruptions, but slowing global trade indirectly pressures CAD via oil.
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada’s cautious tone contrasts with the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance.
Trend: Uptrend momentum remains firm above 1.4100.
Resistance: 1.4165 and 1.4230.
Support: 1.4050 and 1.3980.
Forecast: USD/CAD may test 1.4200 if oil prices weaken further and U.S. yields stay elevated.
Market Sentiment: Mildly bullish toward USD amid risk aversion.
Catalysts: Canada’s jobs report and U.S. sentiment data may drive near-term volatility.
NZD/USD trades below 0.5650 as China’s October trade surplus narrowed, raising concerns about New Zealand’s export outlook. The Kiwi weakened alongside other risk-sensitive currencies as demand for U.S. Dollars returned.
Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty keeps safe-haven flows tilted toward the USD.
US Economic Data: Robust U.S. payroll growth amplifies policy divergence.
Trade Policy: China’s weaker trade figures highlight fragility in NZ’s key export market.
Trend: Bearish bias below 0.5650.
Forecast: NZD/USD likely to remain pressured unless Chinese trade sentiment stabilizes.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish on the Kiwi.
Catalysts: Chinese inflation and trade data revisions may influence near-term moves.
AUD/USD slipped as China’s trade surplus narrowed in October, signaling weaker demand for Australian commodities. The pair traded near 0.6400, with investors staying cautious amid declining risk appetite.
Geopolitical Risks: Global growth slowdown dampens commodity-linked sentiment.
US Economic Data: Solid U.S. employment data reinforces USD strength.
FOMC Outcome: A patient Fed stance sustains USD resilience.
Trend: Sideways-to-bearish near 0.6400.
Resistance: 0.6450 and 0.6510.
Support: 0.6360 and 0.6310.
Market Sentiment: Bearish-to-neutral, pressured by China data.
Catalysts: Chinese industrial output and U.S. CPI next week could trigger fresh direction.
USD/JPY eased slightly after touching a one-week high, trading near 151.50 as Japan’s weak domestic data limited Yen strength. Traders continue to weigh Bank of Japan’s policy hesitation against resilient U.S. Treasury yields.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited safe-haven demand despite global slowdown fears.
US Economic Data: Solid U.S. data sustains Treasury yield support.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady approach underpins USD demand.
Trend: Bullish bias above 151.00.
Resistance: 151.85 and 152.30.
Support: 150.90 and 150.30.
Forecast: USD/JPY may retest 152.00 if BoJ maintains dovish tone.
Market Sentiment: Bullish on USD as yield spread favors Dollar.
Catalysts: Next BoJ policy guidance and U.S. sentiment data.
The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded near the 100 level after Thursday’s sharp drop, supported by resilient data and cautious global sentiment. The recovery signals that markets are rebalancing after overextended short-dollar positioning.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing global growth concerns bolster the USD’s safe-haven role.
US Economic Data: Strong labor data underpins economic resilience.
FOMC Outcome: Steady Fed stance sustains dollar demand.
Trade Policy: Global trade slowdown indirectly supports USD via risk aversion.
Trend: Rebound from oversold territory.
Resistance: 100.45 and 100.90.
Support: 99.80 and 99.40.
Forecast: DXY likely to consolidate near 100.50 before next week’s U.S. CPI release.
Market Sentiment: Slightly bullish as risk sentiment remains fragile.
Catalysts: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and next week’s CPI figures.
Currency markets ended the week on a cautious note, with the U.S. Dollar Index stabilizing near the 100 mark after recent losses. Weaker Chinese trade figures weighed on commodity-linked currencies, while safe-haven demand softened amid calmer risk sentiment. Looking ahead, next week’s U.S. CPI print and key central bank commentary will be crucial in shaping expectations for December policy decisions, potentially setting the tone for FX performance into mid-November.
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