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Markets are holding steady as traders await the release of the US PCE inflation data, a crucial indicator for Federal Reserve policy. Key assets like gold, silver, oil, and major currency pairs show cautious positioning ahead of this influential report.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades flat near $4,205 during early Asian hours. Rising US Treasury yields and strong US jobs data limit upside ahead of the delayed US PCE inflation report.
Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty in Ukraine peace talks boosts safe-haven flows to gold.
US Economic Data: Lower-than-expected jobless claims at 191K support USD, capping gold gains; PCE data awaited for Fed clues.
FOMC Outcome: Expected 25 bps rate cut next week reduces gold’s opportunity cost.
Trade Policy: No direct mentions, but broader tensions could favor safe-havens.
Monetary Policy: Dovish Fed expectations underpin non-yielding gold.
Trend: Flat with upside capped by yields.
Resistance: Near $4,205 current levels.
Support: Not specified, but recent consolidation around $4,200.
Forecast: Sideways until PCE; hotter data may pressure lower.
Market Sentiment: Cautious, sidelined traders await PCE.
Catalysts: PCE inflation release later today.
Silver price (XAG/USD) rises 0.5% to near $57.50 after correcting from $58.90 all-time high. Gains stem from firm dovish Fed cut expectations.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct impact noted.
US Economic Data: Weak ADP jobs data at -32K fuels rate cut bets.
Trade Policy: Not highlighted.
Trend: Firm uptrend above rising 20-day EMA at $53.91.
Forecast: Upward bias if above EMA; consolidation possible.
Market Sentiment: Bullish momentum building.
Catalysts:Fed meeting next week.
WTI crude trades around $59.45, holding below $60 amid rising US stockpiles signaling excess supply. Fed rate cut bets provide downside cushion.
Geopolitical Risks: Ukraine attacks on Russian Druzhba pipeline raise supply concerns.
US Economic Data: EIA stockpiles up 574K barrels vs. expected draw.
FOMC Outcome: 89% chance of 25 bps cut next week.
Trend: Downward pressure from supply.
Resistance: $60.00.
Support: Around $59.45 current levels.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously supported by rate bets.
Catalysts: Geopolitical supply disruptions.
AUD/USD holds above 0.6600 near two-month high. Steady positioning persists ahead of US PCE data.
Geopolitical Risks: Minimal direct influence.
US Economic Data: PCE report to signal Fed path.
FOMC Outcome: Rate cut odds weigh on USD.
Trend: Bullish near highs.
Resistance: Two-month peak levels.
Support: 0.6600.
Forecast: Steady unless PCE surprises.
Market Sentiment: Optimistic above key level.
Catalysts: US PCE inflation data.
GBP/USD trades flat near 1.3330 amid PCE wait. Constructive above 1.3300 despite UK slowdown concerns.
US Economic Data: PCE for rate path hints.
FOMC Outcome: 89% odds of 25 bps cut to 3.50%-3.75%.
Trend: Firmer above 100-EMA at 1.3300.
Resistance:Upper Bollinger at 1.3348.
Support: 100-EMA 1.3300, then 1.3189.
Forecast: Bullish if holds EMA; volatility rising.
Market Sentiment: Positive momentum, RSI 61.
Catalysts: PCE data today.
The upcoming PCE inflation figures will likely shape market sentiment and guide future price movements. Investors should monitor developments closely to adjust strategies in response to evolving economic signals.
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