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NVIDIA is set to report its Q3 FY2026 earnings on November 19, 2025 (after market close). With the company positioned at the heart of the AI infrastructure boom — thanks to its Blackwell platform and surging data‑centre demand — all eyes are on whether the headline numbers can justify the lofty valuation and navigate the emerging constraints in supply, China exposure and power infrastructure.
• Estimated total revenue of ~US$54.0 billion (±2%), representing ~50‑56% YoY growth.
•Expected adjusted EPS around US$1.24‑1.25 per share.
• Data‑centre segment expected to dominate revenue, with an estimate near US$48.5 billion.
NVIDIA’s shares currently trade near the US$185‑US$200 range, reflecting the market’s expectation of strong AI‑driven growth but also the risk embedded in that expectation. With consensus forecasts for revenue around US$54 billion and EPS near US$1.25, the key for investors will be not just hitting those numbers, but the margin profile, supply constraints (especially Blackwell chip ramp and U.S.‑China export issues) and guidance for FY2027 and beyond.
1.Blackwell Chip Ramp & Supply Chain — The next‑generation “Blackwell” architecture is expected to drive major data‑centre wins. Any hiccup in ramp‑up or supply constraints could raise red flags.
2. Data‑Centre Revenue Momentum — With hyperscalers and enterprise AI infrastructure spending growing, the data‑centre segment remains the heartbeat of NVIDIA’s growth. Investors will watch for sequential acceleration.
3. Margin & Power/Infrastructure Constraints — Despite strong demand, gross margin guidance (~73%‑74%) and power/infrastructure limits (the “power wall” in data centres) are headwinds to watch.
4. China Exposure & Geopolitical Risks — Exclusion of certain Chinese shipments (e.g., H20 chips) in guidance means China remains a wildcard for upside or risk.
5. Valuation & Execution Risk — With much of the AI story priced in, execution matters more than ever. Even a strong beat may underwhelm if guidance or tone disappoints.
Trend: Bullish but with elevated risk given high expectations and recent run‑up
Resistance: ~US$220‑US$230
Support: ~US$170‑US$180
Forecast: A strong earnings beat, favourable guidance and robust AI demand could push the shares toward ~$230+. Conversely, any supply chain slip, margin softness or negative tone could test support near ~$170.
Market sentiment remains strongly bullish, driven by NVIDIA’s position at the center of the AI boom. Yet there’s a growing undercurrent of caution: analysts and investors are now more focused on longer‑term visibility and structural constraints rather than just near‑term beats.
NVIDIA’s upcoming Q3 report is key not just for the company, but for the entire AI infrastructure narrative. With revenue expectations sky‑high and the company sitting at the heart of the generative AI build‑out, the question becomes: Can NVIDIA convert scale into sustained profitability and guide confidently into 2027? A strong result may reaffirm its leadership status — but in this case, even minor missteps could amplify investor caution.
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