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Palantir Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: AI Surge vs Valuation Risk | 3rd November 2025

Palantir’s Growth Test

Palantir is set to report its Q3 2025 results after the U.S. market close on November 3. The company has capitalised on strong demand for its AI-platform solutions, but with more than 150% share price gain year-to-date and elevated valuation multiples, this quarter could test how well Palantir translates momentum into sustainable value.

Palantir Performance Snapshot

Expected Revenue: ~US$1.09 billion (≈ 50% YoY growth)

Estimated Adjusted EPS: ~US$0.17 per share (≈ 70% YoY growth)

Commercial segment growth: ~56% YoY; Government segment growth: ~48% YoY

Palantir Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast

Current Price and Context

Palantir shares are trading around $215, just below recent highs, reflecting strong investor confidence in its AI momentum. Analysts expect continued revenue expansion, but with valuation stretched, the focus will shift toward margins and sustainability of commercial growth.

Key Focus Areas

1.AI Platform Expansion – The Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) remains Palantir’s biggest driver, with enterprise adoption accelerating across manufacturing, healthcare, and defense.

2.Commercial vs Government Mix – Rapid commercial growth is narrowing Palantir’s reliance on U.S. government contracts, a trend key to sustaining diversification.

3.Profitability and Margins – Investors will monitor whether gross margins remain above 80% and operating margins above 30%, confirming leverage from scaling software deployments.

4.Valuation Sensitivity – After a massive rally, Palantir trades at over 60× forward earnings; any sign of decelerating growth could spark volatility.

5. Guidance and Global Outlook – Updates on AI expansion into Europe and Asia and FY2026 revenue projections will shape near-term sentiment.

Technical and Market Outlook

Trend: Bullish but near overbought zone

Resistance: $220

Support: $185

Forecast: A strong earnings beat and upbeat FY2026 guidance could lift shares toward $225, while margin compression or weaker bookings may see pullback toward $185.

Investor Sentiment

Market sentiment remains constructive. Institutional flows show selective accumulation, but analysts caution that the stock’s valuation already prices in aggressive growth assumptions.

Wrap-up

Palantir’s upcoming earnings will be more than a growth report — it’s a credibility test for its AI transformation story. If management delivers clear evidence of durable margins and commercial traction, the stock could extend its impressive run. But any stumble in guidance or cost discipline may remind investors how high the expectations have become.

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